jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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About 1.6” here. Better than expected-developing low came through.
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Latest HRRR has some decent rain for LI overnight and some intensification with the developing low. So far I think there's been a 30 second shower here.
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We’ll see how congealed the storms over eastern NJ are when they get here. Models have a quick transit east of the city. If they stay congealed we’ll at least get a quick half to 1”. If not we might barely get the ground wet. Tomorrow we probably get instability showers under the upper low.
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Our rain east of the city comes around midnight with the front/developing low moving east. Might be a quick line of decaying showers, might be more substantial storms but it's moving east and not stalling like today over NJ. Maybe here and there could be flash flooding if it's the substantial storms but it seems like it's in and right out. Then tomorrow looks like on and off instability showers.
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It’ll rain here but it’ll happen tonight late and tomorrow. The stuff today will obviously miss us west. And it won’t be anything like west of the city. It is what it is and typical for summer but I don’t think many want flooded basements. I think it’s pretty safe for Upton to remove the flood watches east of the city.
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I don’t know about never-models were juiced 24-48 hours ago even here but yesterday the trend was obvious. The system became less progressive. Maybe we can salvage something with the coastal low development.
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I think our chance here is largely with whatever coastal storm develops. For today I agree the vast majority will be for NJ and Hudson Valley. Some of the modeling did get wetter east of the city today so we have to wait and see. But I’m not too optimistic.
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Yep, looks like the exact same areas will get pummeled again or at least the highest chance.
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Been wetter than average for July in my backyard but otherwise anything of real interest has missed. Severe weather July 4th missed east and the heavy flooding rain north and west. Zzzzzz and looks to continue that way. Hopefully since we’re still in a long term drought enough survives east of the city to make it to an inch here total but this seems to be another either you’re flooded out or dry. At least the lawns are green and no swarms of pests that come after flooding rains.
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Yep, seems pretty straightforward to me. Models almost unanimously nailing that area that got hit last week too.
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Maybe 0.6” here. Was pretty evident this morning/early afternoon there wouldn’t be much in between the South Jersey Alley storms and monsoon/storms north and west. Even though it’s a wet July we’re still in a drought and we take.
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Can always use the rain here in the summer.
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Dying as it moves east as usual. It's the rare north to south setups that bring real severe to LI. Maybe around 25A gets some heavy rain, where I am probably some gusty showers. I can hear a couple distant rumbles of thunder.
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Maybe some of this clearing over central NJ can make its way here and destabilize. Otherwise there’s been about 5 sprinkles here.
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Looks like these storms over NJ headed for the exact same places nailed already.
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We’ll see what can fire east of the city. A few showers over N Nassau and Suffolk now.
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It might be NW of the city. East of the city looks like the split screw area based on short term modeling.
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Looking like N NJ and Hudson Valley are favored for heavy rain then some zone south of there with a split screw zone in the middle. You can already see a good bit of rain headed for the favored N NJ/Hudson Valley area.
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I have no clue why they show these maps on TV. TV mets should be a little more responsible than Twitter "mets" and hypesters. Yet here we are.
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Top ten afternoon. So glad to have a day without eye stinging campfire, monsoon or 95+.
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No one’s expecting it to be a major hurricane. Maybe a high end TS known for dumping a ton of rain.
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Upton rain totals are a good bit lower than I expected. Highest in Suffolk County is 2.58" in N Babylon. Radar estimates up to 3.5"-4" in spots. This was before Round 2?
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The one area that may have gotten it is the area that almost always never does lol.
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Here through Kings Park shaft zone today. I'll take the 1.2" or so but there's been 3-3.5" a 10 minute drive south of me.
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Some distant thunder and about 9 sprinkles here from it. Broke up right on cue.
