West End of Long Beach by the bay was also flooded so far. Not sure how anyone can say we're dodging any bullet. I'd say it's a worst case scenario but it could be Irene-like by the end.
And the flooding will get worse. The storm pivoting into NJ will turn the winds around to pile water in from off the ocean for the south shore and NY Harbor. And models seem to have more rain if anything tomorrow. We're in maybe the 3rd inning here.
Heavy rains will pivot in and out as the storm meanders around. It’s not like a winter storm where there’s a huge steady overrunning precip shield. Still another 24 hours to go with this.
I lived on a barrier island which made whatever rain irrelevant (10 foot storm tide). I also remember the sustained wind being strong but not crazy but the gusts were 85+ when they could mix down.
I almost wish Upton wouldn't go with a map like this when it's obviously a convective system. But yesterday the split screw area somewhere was pretty obvious. What a summer for coastal CT deluge.
Looks like a kind of split screw setup-the heavy rain area over Central PA maybe hits the I-84 area, then NYC/LI has to see what happens with the heavy rain area further south near DC. Between those areas probably ends up with little.