jm1220

Looks like a wall of shear before anything hits the Gulf coast. The SE is pretty dry so a good rainer would help. If we’re really dealing with 40kt shear on the Gulf coast, hard for me to see how anything beyond a moderate/strong TS can make it.

Might drop below 40 tonight for parts of LI if wind goes calm.

Very likely a wet winter coming up, question is whether we can time cold enough air with any of the storms. If we can get halfway decent cold air here once in a while, odds are good we get pounded at least once.

57 here. Winds keeping it from radiating much.

It’s expecting more storminess in the South so it stays cooler.

It’s a step down the staircase to winter. Maybe there’s 3 more stairs to go down if we have a warm wet torch, 5 or 6 if we have cold/snowy periods but step down today for sure.

Quick shower here to end summer 2026.

Those homes and many others are in trouble if we repeat this 3-5 more times over the winter.

What is this ranking based on-pressure?

My street is a disaster with twigs on it still and a street around the corner from me had no power for 2.5 days because of branches down on power lines. I definitely agree it was a disruptive storm. I just had power flicker a few times. A few years ago PSEG did a good job clearing branches away from power lines on my street after we had something similar happen with us so this time it probably saved us.

Was this a bad storm? Absolutely. But we’ve seen plenty of those since especially around 2010. March 2010 for example was devastating for many because of tree/power damage and we’ve had many more since. For coastal flooding in the back bays I think it briefly hit Major status which is what was expected. Upton was a little slow to catch on but eventually upgraded the coastal areas to high wind warnings and flooding was about what was expected. For days models had the 4-5” rains a chunk of us experienced and Upton had a similar total precip map out. The wet grounds aided in uprooting trees vs if we had dry conditions this summer. The beaches got pounded due to the storm lingering for days and yes it’s rare we get these so soon in September. But compared to other storms we’ve gotten in the last 15 years or so is it that historic-no. Disruptive yes.

Where I am personally, notable but I’ve seen a lot worse. Some of the shore areas did flood pretty heavily due to the piled up water over a few high tides. Overall I’d say it was about as expected. The wet ground contributed to more trees down and power outages.

We’re totally in the “just get this the F out of here” stage.

West End of Long Beach by the bay was also flooded so far. Not sure how anyone can say we're dodging any bullet. I'd say it's a worst case scenario but it could be Irene-like by the end.

And the flooding will get worse. The storm pivoting into NJ will turn the winds around to pile water in from off the ocean for the south shore and NY Harbor. And models seem to have more rain if anything tomorrow. We're in maybe the 3rd inning here.

Heavy rains will pivot in and out as the storm meanders around. It’s not like a winter storm where there’s a huge steady overrunning precip shield. Still another 24 hours to go with this.

Whatta bummer.

It'll be where heavy rain bands set up that get the higher totals-I'd say Central NJ on north is in the game equally for those.

Satellite already looks like a beast incoming.

Wonder if it’s at the point it’s worth getting out if you’re in a vulnerable area.

I’m sure the back bays are getting wrecked pretty good from this. There’s wave/water rise over multiple tide cycles plus full moon.

I lived on a barrier island which made whatever rain irrelevant (10 foot storm tide). I also remember the sustained wind being strong but not crazy but the gusts were 85+ when they could mix down.

I pretty much had a few showers with Sandy on LI.

Freeport, Lindenhurst, Island Park-the usual spots are in for a rough one. Maybe even parts of Long Beach.

Big time beach erosion and flood risk with a track like that.