jm1220

Yep always something to keep in mind with a strong 700mb low to our NW. Could be a sneaky warm layer in there that takes over if/when snow rates reduce.

Looks about right to me. I could see it going a little further though and reaching SI/Brooklyn/JFK area. Can’t rule that out.

It was too warm with the Feb SWFE last winter though because the snow came in heavy from the start. The strong lift and heavy rates help win the race against the mid levels warmth. I was on the south shore that evening and still had a good 4-5” thump before sleet.

Now it's stingy as hell with QPF though lol. The 3k only has like 0.4" liquid here. Thankfully that's on its own. This model should be taken out back to the woodshed and decapitated. I can see something like that though if the main overrunning snow band goes north of here and we're stuck in subsidence waiting for the meat of the precip to come through.

Definitely don’t think this will be a whiff here lol. I think most of us are good too outside of central NJ/I-78 and S and maybe southern NYC, for them hopefully we see a NAM tick south at 12z. I don’t think this will be around long enough for 10”+ aside from maybe a lucky spot here or there, but 6-9” for most is definitely a solid event.

In an overrunning driven storm like this? Always. I’m thinking it’s less than 50-50 that my area goes to sleet but wouldn’t shock me if it happened. NAM may be too warm in the mid levels but I’m confident it’s closer to right than the colder models.

20 here.

My guess for us is around 7". I think we do quite well but can see how we end up on the higher side with good banding or get relatively skunked sitting in a subsidence hole with CT getting hammered and us mixing with sleet. I think it's low likelihood here but can't be ruled out.

If near warning snow is making it to Boston, a chunk of what my backyard gets even will likely be sleet. I know other models are colder but we’ve seen them verify too cold in these type events. It’s clipper like but behaving like a SWFE with overrunning into cold air. Like that or not, take what you will but historically SWFE is not good for NYC. It’s not your typical SWFE for sure but these overrunning deals so often pull the rug out by trending north at the end. We’re at the point where we just have to see what happens. Hopefully we get good precip that doesn’t shoot over way NE and we’re not waiting for hours in the city as it warms in the mid levels.

25 here.

Probably. We'll know the nature of this in the morning/early afternoon. If the heavy snow shield looks like it'll pound the city and Allentown gets a couple hours of good snow, that's a great sign for the city that they'll hit warning totals. If the heavy snow instead looks like it will overshoot the city and nail ALB to HFD, the city is dry in the meantime and Allentown starts right off as sleet when heavier precip finally gets there, NYC will likely underperform because the big WAA snow push is happening north of the city, warm air will get chances to advance aloft in shredded/crap precip and when it gets here it'll be too late.

Obs and totals thread created.

Post obs and totals here. Good luck to all. Some guesses: -Central Park 4.8", JFK 5.0", MMU: 4.2", HPN: 6.7", EWR: 4.0", ISP: 7.0", BDR: 7.3" New Brunswick: 2.8" Middletown NY: 7.5" Newburgh NY: 7.1" PHL 1.2" of crud, TTN: 1.6"-a little more snow but still mostly crud, ABE 2.1"

Yep-the thump happens then the snow turns to shredded, and the sleet line advances in. I can't see soundings but verbatim from the sim radar that's what looks like happens. There does seem to be a good shot at hangback snow after the low begins to depart and the cold air returns in the mid levels that could add another inch or two around dawn on Sat. Again it's one model's interpretation but IMO it can't just be dismissed.

We have a banter thread, please use it for non-storm related stuff. And the "storm cancel" stuff, I don't care if it's meant in jest, trolling or frustration but I'm removing those. You can go to banter or just not post it.

The heavy banding would help keep the mid level warm air at bay. The 0z NAM 3k has kinda crappy QPF across the area which you can see in soundings-when precip is patchy/shredded you see the mid level warm air show up more. The major overrunning snow shield overshooting to the NE is always a possibility here.

When it comes to how far the mid level warmth gets I don't ignore it because as others point out it's closer to accurate most of the time. And soundings do get dicey for the city from 0-3z especially, that 750mb warm nose will mean business. Even my backyard gets very close to changing to sleet. If we see good snow surging into eastern new England, NYC very likely changes to sleet. The block has to shove this south in time. But no I don't think it's gospel and I've seen situations where it overdid the mid level warmth. However it's probably closer to right than the colder models and I don't buy for a second that a storm like this will drop good snow from TTN-PHL with a 700mb low in upstate NY.

Not every time. It’s been too aggressive in the past. Last Feb’s SWFE it was too aggressive.

I don't see a big NE shift. Maybe 25 miles or so. And maybe came down a little on QPF.

If it comes in heavy it’s possible those places on the NE corner of the map reach warning amounts. These storms are always a race between the warm mid level air and heavy snow piling up before the warm air wins. If it comes in shredded the warm air has an easier time advancing in most cases. In the Dec 2020 storm that’s what minimized it east of the city. I’d be expecting largely a sleetfest from Allentown to Trenton to Philly. The tougher call is NE of there. It’s possible that sleet makes it into the SW part of NYC especially if that shredded up snow shield happens.

And today just stop with the bickering. Just stop. Go enjoy time with your families/friends if you can’t help yourself here today.

Tough forecast for sure for New Brunswick along I-78 then south to Trenton. I’d go with maybe a few inches there but expect that sleet could cut into it quite a bit. Like others have said the sleet usually ends up north of where it’s supposed to and sometimes by quite a bit. But if it comes on like a real thump then maybe the colder models could be closer to right since a lot of snow will fall before warm air aloft can ruin it. You can almost always count on the late north shifts on these type of storms unless a strong block can stop it. Anyway-try to enjoy whatever happens and Merry Christmas/happy holidays.

The Feb 2025 SWFE brought a widespread 4-6" because the snow came in like a wall and held off the warm air.

Last minute north bump on a SWFE type system- color me shocked. I think from the city east has enough wiggle room here to hold on but I’d be sweating if I was south of say New Brunswick to Trenton.

Reminds me of the Dec 2020 system somewhat. It won't be that intensity but it'll come down to it comes in like a wall or shredded. Feb's SWFE came in more like a wall and we had 4-6" for almost all. Dec 2020 came in shredded and it was still a very nice event here, but it was 8" vs 12+ because the shredded up precip shield allowed the warm mid level air to take over. We need this blocking to happen.