jm1220

I’m about done with this one. Expecting a washout IMBY and around the city.

Too early to say and too many unknowns. A weaker system without good dynamics, weaker cold push in front of the storm, etc could ruin it even with a better track. Stronger storm obviously brings the possibility it's too amped and has strong onshore flow. I'd say there's a narrow Goldilocks zone for the city to get some decent snow, but very narrow with a dynamic enough system, good cold push and good track. The possibilities expand a lot more NW of the city which is the usual especially this time of year.

We absolutely want a good source region for surface cold but if the mid levels are torched/ruined by a too late low transfer to the coast, the surface doesn’t matter unless you’re into a lot of sleet or ZR. This setup seems like there’s enough cold air to the north at the surface that we’re more interested in when the low transfers to the coast and surface wind direction. A transfer too late keeps winds onshore and torches our surface, or torches the mid levels by a bad 700/850 low track to our west. You also really want to watch the mid level low evolution in a storm like this and where the 700/850 lows track.

As for this upcoming event, if we can redevelop the coastal low soon enough and keep winds offshore, we have a shot on LI and the city especially northern. If winds go onshore we’re done.

We take what we can get here whenever it happens. There could be 20 feet of snow inland, won’t make any difference if the cutter and SWFE train starts.

Ain’t that awesome.

If we have an endless stream of kicker shortwaves like last winter, suppression/OTS a definite possibility. Still way too early to nail anything down obviously.

We’ve had accumulating snow right down to the beaches in less than ideal cold-Nov 2018 being the most recent example but numerous others. We really just don’t want the wind shifting to onshore.

Yep, this time of year especially we need a strong cold air source on storm day, if that high slips east winds turn onshore and it’s game over.

If we can keep the western ridge, it should keep the SE ridge in check enough to give us a chance at a good storm track near the coast. There should be cold air to the north to pull down. But if we lose that ridge we risk it turning into a SWFE buzz kill because the SE ridge will respond and overwhelm it.

If we’re dealing with an overrunning SWFE parade I’ll gladly pass. 95% of those are quick sleet to rain, just rain or slop to rain here while we watch I-90 get 6”+. Gradient patterns here are way more often than not lame crap. If we can get storms to slide SE of here or redevelop south of our latitude I’ll be more interested.

Rather have a juiced STJ and storm chances vs the northern stream dominant during Nina’s. That causes SWFE/cutter favored patterns and Miller Bs that can develop too late. I’d say I-84 is the cutoff for where Nina is a better winter on average vs Nino.

One trillion percent pass on that month and season here where we watched I-90 get buried over and over while it cold rained IMBY. Looks like a SWFE parade being favored which I’ll never be a fan of where I am despite the one or two rabbits out of the hat that can luck out. I’m sure you’re drooling though.

The worst for me is the cold/dry. If it won’t snow I’d rather it be mild. Last winter was the worst for that reason-so much wasted cold.

Trough east of Hawaii rule-that trough should push east but we have to be patient until probably second half of the month. Hopefully the SE ridge can be muted by then.

I mean one day we will have that pattern in place again but for the last few winters it’s been uniquely set up to shaft this area. The results speak for themselves.

Point and click has a low of 35, I’m at 27.

Down to 31. Frosty outside on the deck.

Frost was everywhere this morning here.

Down to 27. I think that qualifies as a hard freeze.

Temp down to 30.

Looks like the snow level about 2100 feet here based on the radar beam height where the CC starts to show a mix. Bright banding over the south shore shows way high up it is snowing. Too bad it can’t be a month later.

No doubt it’s been a chilly month so far. Even here we’re struggling to get past 45.

Said it many times, there’s no way in the long run NYC can get away with repeated 40” winters without reversion to the mean of mid-20s snow averages. Add CC and it gets worse.

Seems like to what extent there will be winter threats they’ll be focused on front end SWFE types and Miller Bs. They’re the best for New England, can be okay here and usually shut out south of the M/D line and west of NJ. Maybe there can be more suppressed systems like last year that can hit the places the Miller B and SWFE don’t.