jm1220
-
Posts
26,288 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by jm1220
-
GOM hasn't had any significant tropical activity this year so the waters are quite warm. That helps.
-
It won’t be that coherent a system by the time it gets up here. Shear will eventually get to it. I agree that these big N Gulf systems usually have a Part 2 big impact area way further north like Camille 1969 and Ida but that’s when it can remain a coherent consolidated system. Up here it looks more like a strung out frontal system.
-
With better upper air conditions than this one has. Shear and dry air are making a beeline right into this one. Will it have enough time to weaken a lot is one question but it’s almost certain this one weakens coming in.
-
But also plenty of situations like Opal 1995, Lili 2002 and Dennis 2005 where the storm collapsed coming in. It could be a high end Cat 1 or even cat 2 at landfall though since it only has so much time to weaken before landfall. Thankfully for surge it’s a smaller sized storm so it can’t build up a huge mound of water. Definitely a tough forecast but hopefully people down there prepped for a stronger than expected storm.
-
Yep, it's your Opal 1995, Dennis 2005, Lili 2002 type. Although those peaked higher than this one will so this will likely be even weaker coming in. The more recent storms like Laura and Michael are the exception in the N Gulf.
-
This was never going to be a storm you make into a screensaver. It might make a brief run at Cat 3 overnight before the shear/dry air twin hammer hit tomorrow. Like others said it might resemble more a mid latitude nor’easter eaten away by dry air when it comes in. Still a significant surge/wind impact near landfall and big flood/tornado threat east of the center where training bands set up.
-
Looks like your little kid dumped spaghetti sauce all over it and dropped a couple blueberries on top.
-
Dewpoints in the upper 50s over SE TX which might as well be the Egyptian desert. If it's ramping up it has to now or very soon-because that's gonna hurt.
-
I would think tonight’s its last chance to ramp up. It’s clearly struggling already with dry air and shear. Looks elongated already.
-
It’s battling dry air and shear and this will get worse as it approaches. Maybe tonight this tries to take off again which is likely its last chance.
-
It’s probably a decent Cat 1 at landfall but it’ll look like a ragged mess.
-
Wonder if you can even call that a halfacane, maybe thirdacane?
-
When you have jet fuel water temps unaffected by any other tropical system this year-yep that’s what happens. Luckily conditions should become significantly more hostile as it comes in.
-
First freeze at Westhampton-dropped to 31.
-
Historically the “I” storm seems to deliver, and it’s been 6 years since Isaias was last used and it’s on a 6 year cycle?
-
PSEG really went to work in my neighborhood after Isaias and some other wind events and trimmed a lot of branches near wires so thankfully in this last storm I just had power flicker a couple times but was good. A few streets away though where they didn’t trim had no power for 2.5 days.
-
Yep-what happens with the banding on the east side is probably what ends up getting remembered the most. Flooding under training bands and the tornadoes. GA could be in for a rough time.
-
Probably very half-a-cane looking if dry air and shear get shoved in at the end. If it really ramps up for a while to high end Cat 3 or something, surge will still be a big deal but mitigated somewhat if it remains a smaller storm. The main story might be where it inevitably rains 10”+ east of the eye or what’s left of it in the training bands.
-
I remember being on the phone and watching a huge tree come down behind my backyard. That was an intense few hours. Luckily up here the heavy rain and intense winds are completely separate in tropical systems.
-
38-40 around my area.
-
Seeing a bunch of 44-45’s in my neighborhood. We’ll see how much lower it goes.
-
Islip is 37 and FRG at 34 last I checked.
-
Hopefully it hits the wall of shear and gets eaten up by dry air which is probably the most likely outcome. But there’s jet fuel in its path before that happens. The SE still needs the rain so a weakening TS with heavy rain would be beneficial.
-
Down to 50 and wind about calm. Will be interesting if a good chunk of LI can get their first 30s.
-
Looks like a wall of shear before anything hits the Gulf coast. The SE is pretty dry so a good rainer would help. If we’re really dealing with 40kt shear on the Gulf coast, hard for me to see how anything beyond a moderate/strong TS can make it.
