jm1220

Gradient/SWFE patterns are a dream for your area and when things are right be okay here but definitely not what I’d prefer. South of Philly gets shut out in that type of pattern. Like I said-we can’t do anything about the laws of physics or reality. Without benchmark nor’easters that’s pretty much what MBY is stuck with when we can’t get 3-5” type clippers the way we used to. Selfishly I hope the NNE drought continues.

From 2000-18 generally (had our share of crap winters in that stretch too but generally good to great) we had an overall pattern to support more benchmark storm tracks and therefore above normal snow seasons for the NYC metro. NYC is also far enough NE to catch some of the late bloomer Miller Bs that nail Boston/New England. The Pacific was in better shape with periods of +PDO and drove a more favorable pattern. Bluewave pointed it out many times and showed data to back up the assertion that in 2019 that background changed and we essentially entered a never ending Nina-like state in the mid latitudes with a very warm W Pacific which drives a hostile Pacific jet. Back in the 80s/early 90s we also had hostile patterns but back then we could also count on clippers once in a while or decent front end events so at least we weren’t shut out other than outright atrocious winters like 72-73. I’m not sold on this regime being permanent but there’s no doubt in my mind that other than a rabbit out of the hat rare 20-21 type winter (and even that was modestly above average for NYC itself, the best that winter was in N NJ), the Pacific regime needs to change to get this area back in the game for above average snow winters.

Impossible-no, but would anyone reputable (not someone putting out clickbait for subscriptions) sensibly predict them with the overall pattern we have now? I would think no.

We used to get clippers once in a while but they have largely gone extinct, and 20-30 years ago we used to get hugger tracks that would at least produce on the front end, like the Feb 1995 and March 1993 storms. We really need the offshore benchmark tracks here to have good snow winters now unless these come back.

Yep it would definitely be good to note.

Wow-Stony Brook 70mph, but isn’t that elevated at 100 feet above ground?

The problem was that as soon as a ridge would try to get established in the West, the Pacific jet would just knock it down or shove it east which meant storms couldn’t turn the corner in a good place for us and they’d be forced out to sea. We also couldn’t get a well timed phase with so much chaos and shortwaves everywhere. That’s why I’m so pessimistic about our chances especially north of DC to south of Boston with this pattern continuing. I-90 to maybe I-84 can still get good events from SWFE, very rarely down here when everything aligns. The suppressed patterns can help the DC/Baltimore area and south. East of I-81 and north of the M/D line to around the I-84 corridor, we need those benchmark tracks to have a shot at normal snow. We’re in a unique shaft zone here with this new regime.

I want for him to be wrong too but unfortunately the laws of physics and reality couldn’t care less about what we want.

As others pointed out the models seem to be backing down and it should be an advisory event. A lot of leaves have already come off trees as well which will help limit damage potential.

I love the wet snow that clings to trees and all surfaces vs the drier snow that blows and drifts where one spot can have 2-3 feet and nothing right next to it. Like you said I’ll gladly take whatever we get in this new regime.

The snowy December years often have a “round 2” later in the winter like 2017-18 where the NYC area cashes in again and ends above normal. Winters where Dec doesn’t produce often have the raging Pacific jet or other unfavorable driving factor that never goes away. 2010-11 was one Nina where we really had a 6 week winter from Christmas to 2/1 and that was it, but it was among the most epic in history.

ISP got skunked a couple times last winter where the north shore was still able to do okay. I ended up with just over 19” with the help of those marginal events. Usually MBY does close or as well as coastal CT.

Hopefully NYC can get the 4” in Dec that normally translates to a good Nina winter. If under 4” the winter will almost certainly be a bust. We need to take advantage of the early winter window Nina often provides to get on the board.

Know all those areas very well. I live just NE of Rt 110 and Jericho Tpke intersection.

I’d be beyond thrilled with 30” here. My immediate part of LI is often close with coastal CT for snow. I’m thinking less especially if we get another zonked Pacific Jet dominated winter but hopefully we have some good opportunities come to reality.

Old Forge-5 hour drive away but may as well be 5 light years in terms of snow.

Neap tides with the half moon helped keep the water levels down a little but strong easterly winds piling in water will always be a problem here.

The shaft zone was roughly the Suffolk border to about 8 miles or so east. I have maybe 1.4” here. Better than it could have been.

We need ridging into Alaska to drive cold air south from there. A more rounded ridge pointed into Canada would just bring Pacific mild air in. In December especially near the coast the source region for airmass is very important. And obviously a roaring Pacific jet would tend to knock the ridge down and nudge it east.

A wet October is sometimes a good sign for winter. Cold Octobers are better but dry/warm is almost always bad. Unfortunately with this storm we saw the usual pattern of the SE ridge flexing and forcing the storm track inland.

An inch or so rain here.

Hopefully a nice 1-2" event. I definitely believe the heavier totals inland with the easterly upslope flow and inland track of the low. East of the low will depend on the timing/placement of frontal wave.

In December near the coast especially, you want snow cover and a cold air source in Canada for any storm to tap into. In Jan and Feb it isn’t as important, but the warm waters nearby make it very easy to ruin any setup with any wind coming off them. Mild Pacific garbage won’t do it for I-95 south of Boston and even there it’s tough.

Euro a little less stingy for LI but pretty much all modeling has some kind of split screw zone between the inland heavy upslope rain and developing frontal wave for eastern New England.

Also probably tons of flood damage inside near the coast where any surge reached. In my experience in Sandy that’s exactly what happened. From the outside the house looked relatively okay, inside totally devastated.