jm1220

Awesome. How much is he asking for a monthly subscription?

I would really take any of those winters other than 24-25. 16-17, 17-18 and 21-22 were at least okay here. 17-18 of course was the biggest, 16-17 and 21-22 were okay to good. Thanks for the detailed analysis and thoughts.

Lots of instability showers around today-still quite cold aloft. Look at the upstate NY radar-lots of snow showers.

So much for mostly sunny today. More cloudy chilly gloom.

How many of them have a link they want you to click so they can get subscriptions? Look I don’t doubt there could be a cold/snowy December and many signs are pointing that way, but the “major cold and snow11!111!!” should be met with skepticism.

Yep, climate change I’m sure has a significant role but we were way overdue for a correction. NYC can’t get away with regular 40”+ winters. No way.

Not understanding how certain posters have “warm agendas” and they get trolled but we get weenie mets who clearly post cold/snow favorable maps for clicks and subscriptions quoted here. Trust me I want it to snow as much as anyone but the last 5-6 years generally have been very unfavorable for our area to do well. It’s reality and we don’t like it, but nature doesn’t care what we like. Sooner or later the “warm agenda” posters will likely be too conservative but they’ve reflected the reality much better since the regime changed in 2018-19. If we have a Pacific jet dominated winter again, it’s very unlikely we make it to normal snow.

Yep. What a nasty afternoon.

If we can fire up some Miller Bs that don’t develop too late, NYC has a chance at 20”. There very likely won’t be Miller As during a Nina, and clippers as we’ve seen have largely died out. Maybe a lucky SWFE can tack on 4-6” like the one last winter. But that’s really NYC’s path to anything near normal in this regime.

More of a southerly trajectory to the winds and CAA aloft ended.

Yep, lawn furniture all over my backyard.

It could change or not verify but I don’t see a way there can be any kind of positive outcome here if the Greenland block links up with SE ridging. That would be a disaster. We can’t have too much of a -PNA with the Greenland block or we risk this happening, like in 22-23.

If 59mph at Islip is real, pretty sure there should’ve been a high wind warning. Today definitely should’ve been a wind advisory.

I hope you're right and we can make a few chances verify. The outcomes can't get much worse than the last few winters so there's that. I did relatively well for the coastal plain/NYC area with 19.3" last winter and that's maybe 60% of average with how many cold enough for snow days we had.

Temp dropping to 34-35 in the snow. Not accumulating here but a nice sight.

Nice snow shower here.

Flurries again.

Missed the 2/6/10 event on LI by about 40 miles. That was a brutal one. Other than that agreed-09-10 was another good season here. Usually the big Nino winters can produce up to the NYC area when we have some cold with the huge Nino driven storms. 23-24 just had no cold like 97-98 and 72-73 so it sucked.

12/25/10-2/1/11 was the snowiest stretch of my entire life. All throughout the NYC area there was 20”+ on the ground which is incredibly rare for any kind of extended period. The two highlights for me were 20” on 12/26 and 16” on 1/27. But on 2/1 we had the SWFE type event and the winter flipped to favorable for the Midwest which is almost always unfavorable here.

In my immediate area we can do okay with marginal events sometimes where the city and south shore get white rain-I ended up with just over 19" last winter. But it certainly won't be good in any sense unless we start getting the offshore amplified storm tracks again. In State College and Central PA generally we can definitely see a long term pronounced shift away from snowy patterns for that area-clippers are pretty good for them and they've gone extinct, we don't have Miller A type huggers anymore like March 1993, and redeveloping Miller Bs have started to redevelop too late and Central PA would be stuck in either a dryslot or sleet fest. When I was there we saw storms like in Feb 2007 initially forecast to dump a huge amount of snow on the I-80 corridor, but the primary cut too far north and it turned into a sleetfest while upstate NY into New England got the most snow. A whole bunch of the 2007-08 Nina driven storms were sleetfests in State College. Sad what's happened there for snow lovers and we can't say anymore it's something temporary since it's been like this for 20 years now. There have been 2 seasons in that stretch that made it to 50" and many around/below 30" when their long term average used to be around 45-48". Hopefully something like this isn't happening here now.

Thought we could get below freezing with the CAA continuing overnight-oh well. Flurries are nice to see.

That band looks quite impressive and nearly stationary. I remember once in I think 2007 when I was a PSU undergrad we had one of those Huron connected snow bands park overhead and dump 5" of fluff that was gone by the next day since it was in March. Otherwise lots of frustration with those being on the downslope side of the Allegheny Ridge.

Still CAA through early morning at the mid levels so we have a ways to go. We probably get down to 29-30.

Down to 36. Feels frigid with the wind.

Hopefully we get the 4”+ in Central Park that 7 of 8 times in a Nina led to a snowy winter. The White Christmas was nice for sure but the story of the rest of winter was piddly snow events and cold/dry suppression then cutter/warm for the bigger storms other than the one lucky 4-6” SWFE.