jm1220

My #2 favorite storm of all time. Jan 1996 is #1. Pretty sure though if I was around for Jan 2016 that would be my #1. The bullseye was actually over the south shore near JFK where it never is.

Best we can hope for with a stout -PNA is an overrunning snow to rain type system here with a retreating high. Or a sheared to nothing squeeze play system. We need the PNA to cooperate at least a little.

Fingers crossed, it does look like the pattern could be favorable to at least get us on the board. It might be an overrunning scenario with the SE ridge where NYC changes to rain, but we’d be on the board at least.

The storm tracks last winter which were favored because of the Pacific jet helped Cape May and places south of there. You could see over and over again how the fast flow knocked down western ridges and sent endless kicker shortwaves that interfered with any phasing or amplification. We need the western ridge or some kind of mechanism to amplify the flow and bring the storm up the coast.

But there’s a reason for the “bad luck” and that’s the Pacific jet is very unfavorable for good storm tracks here. We saw the western ridge keep getting knocked down and therefore storms couldn’t turn the corner last winter, or we would have too much of a SE ridge or the SE ridge link up with the Greenland block which causes inland tracks.

And then you see it posted/shared on Facebook and social media. Sad how hype/headlines sell in our society.

Awesome. How much is he asking for a monthly subscription?

I would really take any of those winters other than 24-25. 16-17, 17-18 and 21-22 were at least okay here. 17-18 of course was the biggest, 16-17 and 21-22 were okay to good. Thanks for the detailed analysis and thoughts.

Lots of instability showers around today-still quite cold aloft. Look at the upstate NY radar-lots of snow showers.

So much for mostly sunny today. More cloudy chilly gloom.

How many of them have a link they want you to click so they can get subscriptions? Look I don’t doubt there could be a cold/snowy December and many signs are pointing that way, but the “major cold and snow11!111!!” should be met with skepticism.

Yep, climate change I’m sure has a significant role but we were way overdue for a correction. NYC can’t get away with regular 40”+ winters. No way.

Not understanding how certain posters have “warm agendas” and they get trolled but we get weenie mets who clearly post cold/snow favorable maps for clicks and subscriptions quoted here. Trust me I want it to snow as much as anyone but the last 5-6 years generally have been very unfavorable for our area to do well. It’s reality and we don’t like it, but nature doesn’t care what we like. Sooner or later the “warm agenda” posters will likely be too conservative but they’ve reflected the reality much better since the regime changed in 2018-19. If we have a Pacific jet dominated winter again, it’s very unlikely we make it to normal snow.

Yep. What a nasty afternoon.

If we can fire up some Miller Bs that don’t develop too late, NYC has a chance at 20”. There very likely won’t be Miller As during a Nina, and clippers as we’ve seen have largely died out. Maybe a lucky SWFE can tack on 4-6” like the one last winter. But that’s really NYC’s path to anything near normal in this regime.

More of a southerly trajectory to the winds and CAA aloft ended.

Yep, lawn furniture all over my backyard.

It could change or not verify but I don’t see a way there can be any kind of positive outcome here if the Greenland block links up with SE ridging. That would be a disaster. We can’t have too much of a -PNA with the Greenland block or we risk this happening, like in 22-23.

If 59mph at Islip is real, pretty sure there should’ve been a high wind warning. Today definitely should’ve been a wind advisory.

I hope you're right and we can make a few chances verify. The outcomes can't get much worse than the last few winters so there's that. I did relatively well for the coastal plain/NYC area with 19.3" last winter and that's maybe 60% of average with how many cold enough for snow days we had.

Temp dropping to 34-35 in the snow. Not accumulating here but a nice sight.

Nice snow shower here.

Flurries again.

Missed the 2/6/10 event on LI by about 40 miles. That was a brutal one. Other than that agreed-09-10 was another good season here. Usually the big Nino winters can produce up to the NYC area when we have some cold with the huge Nino driven storms. 23-24 just had no cold like 97-98 and 72-73 so it sucked.

12/25/10-2/1/11 was the snowiest stretch of my entire life. All throughout the NYC area there was 20”+ on the ground which is incredibly rare for any kind of extended period. The two highlights for me were 20” on 12/26 and 16” on 1/27. But on 2/1 we had the SWFE type event and the winter flipped to favorable for the Midwest which is almost always unfavorable here.