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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. All that in central PA will dry up as it comes over the mountains and downslopes. Maybe there can be a coating with some snow squalls later under the trough. But overall a lame event. Finally seeing some snow flurries here.
  2. These precip vs cold air race events almost never work out for the coast. We need the upper level lows to be better defined so the precip can be thrown back into the cold air. Otherwise as Snowgoose called to a T, we just dry out on the NW wind. Rain’s about done and the sky is brightening up already.
  3. Rain/some sleet. Looks like the meh/warm models were right. Congrats to those NW of the city who finally got a decent event.
  4. I’m expecting nothing frozen or practically nothing so it’s fine. If winter ended for me with the 2” on Wed that’s totally fine by me. That said, an hour or two for the cold air advance makes a huge difference. It’s cold air vs precip remaining race.
  5. Could still be pretty high impact since no one is expecting it now and since there’s a high chance that what falls freezes up tomorrow night.
  6. How has the HREF been this season? It was somewhat too aggressive with the last slip/snow event this week. Is there a 12z HREF out yet?
  7. That I do think will happen-tons of black ice on the roads Sat night. But the accumulating snow could go either way. As others mentioned an hour or two difference in the changeover time will mean a lot. NW of the city should have a decent period of snow. If it can snow hard in the city for a while it should stick since temps will be dropping below freezing.
  8. This will be much different. The upper low structure for the 2002 storm was much better for us. The 500mb low closed off in time for heavy snow to linger west of the low as the cold air crashed in. This is much more progressive and the precip won’t be pivoting back west as it leaves. It’s a classic precip vs cold air race this time, and the flow will de drying us out in general from the NW when the cold air gets here.
  9. Hi-res models are pretty snowy for NYC and even western LI, shows 2-3" in general. I'm pessimistic about these "wait for the cold air to come in" storms for snow in NYC and we'll have to deal with dry NW winds but I guess we'll see what happens. Anything of note I'd expect to happen NW of the city.
  10. Yep, once again the storm is generally falling apart for Central PA in terms of anything really significant. Probably a moderate event for most. For me it is definitely colder and could be a surprise couple of inches, but in general the storm seems lamer/strung out instead so it doesn’t really nail anyone. Oh well.
  11. I haven’t seen the upper low maps but I’d assume those aren’t closing off until the storm is done for us. That’s what would really drive the precip west. If those stay strung out/not closed off, it may be more like a glorified frontal passage.
  12. I’d rather have the windy rainstorm and inland finally gets their overdue snowstorm than the strung out crap storm being described. Way too many of those this winter.
  13. Maybe we can get one of those convective lows to develop and tug it east like our 1/30 storm and early Jan storm. Only seems to happen to screw us over though. In all seriousness this is still likely an inland only snow event but the progressive pattern has pulled these east/suppressed before. If I was in Central NY/PA I’d start to sweat.
  14. That was a nice NAM run for just about everyone NW of I-81. Hopefully maybe a tick or two more SE so Harrisburg can get it too. There may be some help from ratios too, Kuchera shows over a foot for I-99/Rt 220 corridor.
  15. As soon as the models started bumping north with the snow yesterday and Mon night, it was clear the best snow would be inland and along I-84 where many in that area had 5”. It’s too bad this wasn’t a month earlier and 3-4 degrees colder. This would be a 6-8” snow area wide if that was the case. Islip I think came in with near 0.7” liquid so the higher QPF did work out. But the high sun angle and lousy ratios killed it. The Kuchera maps that took this into account were the best.
  16. Models were too warm here at the end just like last event. In the cold areas of LI at least it was able to get down to 32 overnight, where it stayed as the snow moved in. Models predicted 36-37 and a change to rain. That made the difference. Unfortunately the city and immediate/south shore didn’t cool down overnight as much and couldn’t evap cool very much, so it was rain or snow that didn’t accumulate much.
  17. Light rain/drizzle. Temp still 33. Wonder if we can get a few degrees below freezing tonight and freeze this all up.
  18. That was an I-90 focused storm. So the part of I-81 near I-90 like around Syracuse did OK but they’re also way below average this winter.
  19. I live in a relatively elevated, cold part of Long Island so I was hoping for something out of it but a nice ending to the winter and gets me to just about seasonal average. I’m at 31” after this event (assuming this is it). Just south of me near the south shore has pretty much nothing or had white rain all day. Very marginal where anything helps.
  20. I have about 2” here in northern Suffolk County. Looks like we’re about done but moderate snow/sleet/grauple now.
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