jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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Hoping for some severe tomorrow, big storms today in W TX, some with tennis ball hail. Biggest threat tomorrow here looks like wind, but big hail possible too especially west of Austin.
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As we all know once we get the droopy cut off low pattern to start it's damn near impossible to get rid of.
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I’m jealous. I’ll gladly take it today.
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Could be worse-you could be here in Austin with me today where it’s currently 97, heat index 105. Absolutely disgusting, broiling heat. Chance of severe tomorrow so hopefully that works out
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Eh, glad the lawns got another drink and we can still get a coastal storm under the right conditions. The storm also would’ve evolved differently in the winter.
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Probably would’ve been a broader precip shield since there’s a bigger difference between cold and warm ocean air-more overrunning, broader precip shield west. It might’ve been light rain/mix to heavy snow as the offshore low took over-we have a primary low that made it all the way to Buffalo. But it would’ve been another Juno/Nemo/Jan 2022 scenario.
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Backlash showers! Yay!
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Late May cool here, over the top heat for Canada. Easy to call the last 5 years.
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Further east models usually verify in these coastal storm setups. This would be a Boston 24” storm and most of us 10-12”.
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Dry air eating the rain up as it heads east-very much like our winter disasters, but models seem to be keying in on heavy rain in the morning as the coastal low takes over.
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Confluence/dry air from the east trying to hold it off although this time of course in late May it’ll lose.
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4 months too late. Congrats to the 2500ft+ mountain tippy tops in VT/NH.
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If we could’ve gotten any of the colder periods this winter to match with decent moisture it would’ve been a 40-50” snow winter in NYC. Instead we had the roaring Pacific destructively interfere potential setups to death over and over, favor more garbage SWFEs and keep other storms suppressed that could form. I’m not as concerned about the rising average temps (although that’s of course hampering our making any marginal temp setup work) as getting the Pacific to slow down and allow amplified setups in a good location for B/M tracks. We can get absolutely blitzed by a storm or two and end up well above average like in 15-16 despite near record warmth overall. Feb 2016 was also an underrated snowy month around NYC and east.
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Going to TX for Memorial Day weekend. Will be quite a shock to the system going from 50s in a nor’easter to possible mid 90s.
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Yep actually hasn’t been too bad. But we’re never out of the woods here for those until June.
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Perfect coastal track rainstorm for next Fri. 4 months too late. Yay!
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Whaaaa? Never!
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South Jersey Alley lighting up.
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Oh you know it will. Once the cutoffs over the NE pattern sets up…
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Maybe if this rampaging Pacific Jet is a permanent thing now the West would be wet and Plains would start to dry out. But who knows.
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Once the cutoff lows start hanging around the NE we all know what happens.
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The map is effective as of Tue 8am but still should be a good improvement.
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When I lived there (Austin) were definitely a couple impressive storms and a few tornado warnings. This time of year in May is their active season often with a lot of rain, the truly intense heat didn't get underway until July the two summers I was there (which were true hell). I lived there in May 2015 when there was over 20" of rain just that month and heavy rain almost every day. Catastrophic flooding in some places near me. But then in June it dried up and essentially no rain again until Sept 2015, and Oct 2015 was another deluge month.
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WTF... Austin, TX's high for tomorrow is expected to hit 108. That's insanely early to be reaching that kind of heat and is actually not far from all time heat records there. The average high there this time of year is around 85. And it's expected to be 100+ for the next 5-6 days. This is more typical for mid-August. Must be feedback from the drought conditions over the Rio Grande Valley and SW flow/ridging.
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OBS for OKX Flood Watch (attached) into early Saturday 5/10/25
jm1220 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Overdone again like the last storm generally when some models had 4”+. Was pretty obvious what the outcome would be early this AM with the split-screw setting up. Hopefully the last places with drought get a good benefit. SE NJ still needs a soaker.
