jm1220

Moderate coastal flooding expected along the south shore tomorrow evening. Definitely enough to flood the low lying spots in Freeport, Lindenhurst, Island Park etc.

Meso models hinted at it yesterday. I-90 special. These very rarely if ever work out IMBY. Somehow they always nudge north and west. I guess 12-15 more hours of mist that gets the total to 0.5”.

Lots of misery mist/drizzle.

That would be great but as always this summer I'll believe it when I see it. Could easily focus way inland/north. Have to watch it evolve.

I can't think of a PRE that was ever decent IMBY. They're good inland over NJ or the Hudson Valley.

Nina in and of itself isn’t unfavorable for NYC, it’s more of a killer south of the M/D line though last winter was very good snow-wise even in the Deep South when the pattern deamplified. But NYC is in a particular Goldilocks geographic area where there isn’t a defined storm type that can be relied on to produce-we’ve had huge Miller B and more suppressed Miller A, and can if we’re lucky get 3-6” from a SWFE, just about all types other than cutter can produce for NYC but also be a dud. The fast Pacific along with the Nina arranged the pattern in such a way that it caused dud after dud despite cold enough air in place multiple times.

It’s not rotten luck. The Pacific Jet oriented in a way and strength that systematically destroyed our chances especially south of I-90 to PHL. Historically when it’s been cold enough in NYC it’s found a way to snow because there would be a PNA ridge that would stick around long enough or NAO blocking to slow the pattern down. Now the Pacific Jet knocks it all down like bowling pins and storms either can’t amplify in time or amplify too much.

Could be some pretty significant erosion later this week. 12-15 foot waves possible especially due to Erin expanding in size. Any weakening unless it’s rapid won’t affect the wave heights much-the fetch is a bigger player and it nudging west doesn’t help either.

Had some thunder when it blew up a little over Plainview. But maybe two drops here.

Maybe a shower here if we’re lucky, the rest is collapsing as it heads over LI or staying over the city as usual.

The lawns kneel and genuflect in anticipation.

Hurricane will be expanding in size as well which expands the fetch.

Beaches will get a pounding in a few days. Surfers paradise.

The higher humidity with dewpoints often over 75 helps heat it up overall since it carries more heat. So even though winds are onshore much of the time at JFK, it carries the higher dewpoints.

About 0.75-0.8” here. Need a lot more but a good start.

Had a pretty loud rumble just now, heavy rain. Great news for the lawns.

Maybe Nassau can luck out and that line can make it to them. Looks pretty fierce.

We both know the answer.

Amazing to me to be in 100 degree heat but see snow in the distance.

Might feel a little better with the westerly flow outcome honestly. I’d rather it 100/65 vs the 92/77 we have with the southerly flow. That way we maybe notch another 100 and the disgusting humidity is kept away. These 75-80 dews we get now are hideous.

Down to 54 here-feels like fall. Unfortunately short lived.

And since it'll be coming N at 50 mph, on the east side that means 205 mph winds! Bye Bye Fire Island

155 mph hurricane straight into Jones Beach, 20 foot surge. I’d lock yourself up in the bunker now. And prepare your goodbyes, although everyone you say goodbye to is likely screwed too.

It ain’t sick of us!

Euro however is a huge torch. If we have mostly southerly flow it'll be the 92/75+ type conditions, if westerly downslope with 20+C 850s many of us will make a run at 100 but have dews more in the 65-70 range.