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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    Hopefully I have a couple hours left here in which case I might make it to 9-10” before sleet. Maybe between everything end up with a foot.
  2. jm1220
    It’s hitting one of its snags.
  3. jm1220
    6” even on my deck. Dumping.
  4. jm1220
    Maybe hitting a few snags again-it’s headed more N than NE which some models hinted at-that it would charge N through NJ before coming NE into the city and LI. It’s absolutely dumping now so however long we can keep this going would be awesome.
  5. jm1220
    We’re enjoying the snow but also analyzing the storm. Take the bickering to banter or PM.
  6. jm1220
    I lived through that VD 2007 storm in central PA and it was dumping sleet at maybe 10-12 degrees. What happens at 750 or 800mb is irrrelevant to the surface. If there's strong southerly flow at those levels because of a primary and 700/850 lows in a bad place, those levels will warm up and it will sleet.
  7. jm1220
    I'm not buying that with how fast it's advancing, I think pings start in Staten Island and the Rockaways in an hour or so but question is does it charge right in or hit snags/retreat for a time.
  8. jm1220
    HRRR again showing sleet coming into the area but then being fought/pushed back for a while. This idea will either be the hero of the day or fall flat on its face.
  9. jm1220
    Yep, proof for all time that what happens at 750mb is irrelevant to the surface. SWFE are what they are.
  10. jm1220
    You can see the lull in the echos over S NJ where just before the sleet takes over. The warm air will advance during any lull. We want that to fill in before it gets here.
  11. jm1220
    Just under 5”.
  12. jm1220
    It hits a snag here or there but yes. It’ll be on our door by 3pm, then question is will it come through or hit more snags.
  13. jm1220
    Newest HRRR continues to have the sleet line fight back and forth as it gets to NYC around 21z. Sleet finally really takes over around dark. If that's true could be big, and NYC gets over a foot.
  14. jm1220
    Sleet will accumulate too just at a slower rate. If we get 0.6” liquid as sleet that’s 1.8” since it’s a 3-1 ratio. And it will be dense and heavy as hell.
  15. jm1220
    4” on my deck but snow blowing around makes it harder to get a good measurement. Heavy snow.
  16. jm1220
    It's counting sleet as snow. It's nowcast time and watching the radar.
  17. jm1220
    Getting heavier here again after a lull.
  18. jm1220
    New HRRR really has a fight with the sleet line as it comes into NYC around 3pm. Pushes it back south and soundings look right on the edge. Please be right lol.
  19. jm1220
    Yep, if we can get it to fight back and forth for a while, even an hour that could mean 2 more inches. The radar looks amazing coming out of NJ. The ratios are coming down as the column warms but higher intensity will make up for it then some. That looks like 2”/hr stuff coming.
  20. jm1220
    PHL radar looks amazing-here comes the money 4-5 hours.
  21. jm1220
    Download RadarScope and use Correlation Coefficient. The yellow line is where sleet mixes in. This was as of a few minutes ago
  22. jm1220
    That stuff over SE PA will pound us for a few hours.
  23. jm1220
    FWIW the 3k NAM has sleet to Staten Island by about 2pm over to I-80 in NJ and to the Tappan Zee/my backyard/West Milford by 3pm. It's quite wet, 1.5" liquid or more for most.
  24. jm1220
    2.5" here just about.
  25. jm1220
    Doesn't look like it's moving north all that fast over DE and hitting some resistance over DE Bay. I'm sure it's still coming but time to watch the radar and the CC line from here IMO. And heavy enough rates can overcome a very shallow warm layer a little above freezing which is probably what the HRRR is showing with the fighting back and forth.
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