jm1220

Maybe 2 or 3 drops now. Woohoo. Time to start up the sprinklers.

Not one drop here. Southern Nassau looks like it got hit pretty good.

Looking like it could be a WNW flow heat like in late June too, so many of us could push 100.

The storm over Plainview/Farmingdale might clip you.

Looking like MBY is getting the split screw again.

High end heat today-hideous. So glad this is only one day but looks like it comes back early next week.

And Winter 1779-1780 is when the Continental Army was stationed at Morristown I believe where hundreds died from hypothermia. It was even worse than the previous winter at Valley Forge which is better known.

95/75. Atrocious.

And low ACE Nina means death knell for a snowy NYC winter. Hope that’s wrong.

Looks like mid to late afternoon. Hopefully if they come from the N in CT they hold together better than usual.

Definitely time for more rain. Lawns not regularly watered are crispy.

If that low would’ve tracked 75 miles further south we wouldn’t have been stuck in weak sauce echoes and a dry slot which doesn’t get it done on 4/1 and instead got in on the cold moist conveyor belt SNE had. I don’t remember that storm probably because it was a raw nasty white rain fest here but I guess the 8-12” predictions were because the storm likely closed off too late or too far north.

If we get a bunch of offshore wind days behind cool fronts, the SSTs will cool down from upwelling. The warm waters here are shallow. But no doubt if we go through Aug with these warm waters we’re asking for trouble-either from a tropical system or stalled out front and MCS deluge like we saw last summer and happens most frequently in August around here.

I’m terribly sorry for your loss.

Models coming into reality with the slower southerly wind. It’ll roast up here before the humid breeze (it’ll drop the temp by a few degrees but raise the dewpoint by same number of degrees) comes through between 2-4pm.

I know some have talked about the expansion of the Hadley Cell which may be driving the warming east of Japan, which would almost certainly be CC driven. My hope is just that whatever is driving that reverses or gets muted by something else so that there can be real snowstorms here again. And I’m not even being facetious, other than 2020-21 and briefly in Jan 2022 which may be an incredible rarity in this new regime, you can watch clearly how the hyper Pacific Jet shoots to pieces any kind of setup that be good for NYC. It positively tilts the troughs so they can’t amplify in time which allows the suppressed outcomes, destroys phasing setups in a place where it would create a benchmark track, or its SWFE/cutter city when the SE ridge takes over. Or when there’s -NAO blocking the -PNA is so ridiculous that the block actually helps the cutter outcomes by linking with the SE ridge. Part of me thinks this is payback for the bonanza 2000-18 period where we had epic storms and averages have to assert themselves again, but more and more the longer this horrible regime lasts you have to ask whether it’s permanent and we’re starting to go down the road places like Central PA have for 20 years, where it’s essentially impossible to get big snow events there anymore.

North of the LIE probably gets to 95 before the seabreeze unless it’s like 20-30mph and all day. South near where you probably gets over 90 but it’s more dependent on when the seabreeze takes over, and with water temps well in the 70s it won’t bring much relief only more humidity.

We’d probably need 20-30mph southerly wind to keep the north shore that much cooler than NJ/Hudson Valley. We usually heat up pretty fast then we have the breeze eventually by 3-4pm that cools it down but too late (and with the waters so warm not much cooling and more humidity).

Those beaches are also private for residents or leisure pass holders, Long Beach allows anyone to buy a beach pass.

Outflow boundary coming through-nice breeze finally.

Yep I saw a radar estimated 4.19” right around Uniondale.

Brief shower earlier, still nice sunset.

That one dropped 14-15" in my backyard just 30 miles east of Central Park, 20" a 20 minute drive south/east of me and 24" at Islip about 50 miles east of Manhattan. If only it could've developed a hair sooner. That of course was the last good nor'easter for this area. Tons of crap SWFE events (although there was the one decent front end 4-6" event last winter here), cutters, suppressed garbage and every other type of disappointment since. This ferocious Pacific jet pattern is tailor made to ruin the winter chances for the northern Mid Atlantic. As long as that persists our odds at anything different are piss poor at best.

Figures on our low dewpoint day it gets cloudy.

Good. Hopefully lots of typhoons in that area this summer.