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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. You're probably still good. But wow at the trends today. LOL
  2. There's definitely a weaker trend on the models so far but still good for a significant event around the city. I-84 corridor is sweating though. South also means weaker dynamics.
  3. I'm definitely interested for Philly to Trenton and west on the Penn Turnpike to Harrisburg. DC/Baltimore probably need more help than possible this late.
  4. Almost like a reverse Juno 2015 but even that had more agreement it wouldn't be special in NYC besides the Euro/NAM until the end. But yeah, there'll be an uproar in much of New England if these lamer solutions happen.
  5. I think you'll be okay but yup-tough call north of you. These do like to drive a fronto band pretty far north but that HRRR run sucked.
  6. Yup. Yikes. Officials urge people to work from home if possible, stay off roads during Tuesday snowstorm (msn.com)
  7. If that happens there's at least 15" IMBY. I'll gladly take.
  8. For the usual warm spots that are hard to accumulate I definitely agree. But in the places that are a little colder outside the city or even Bayside/Douglaston I can see 10" in some places-looks like it will really pound for a few hours. If this banding really happens it can happen in 4-5 hours at 1-3"/hour. I'm glad to see the Euro got a little better and HRRR/RAP are primed. GFS was annihilation from 7am to noon.
  9. Not ideal for sure but we can do fine with a dynamic enough system-March 2018 etc. Midtown, the immediate south shore and usual warmer spots might have some issues but heavy snow will drop most of us to 32-33 quick.
  10. We pulled the rabbit out of the hat for once. I’m legit excited for this one. From 7am to noon for just about all of us will be awesome. The mid level evolution looks about as good for NYC/I-80/LI as it gets. And further north should be okay too since fronto banding with better ratios usually extends pretty far north in these.
  11. This reminds me a little of 3/22/18 and how it went to town as it headed ENE. I doubt there'll be 18" on parts of LI like that storm had but many can end with double digits. The banding signatures and mid level evolution along with the abundant moisture to work with will mean 2-3"/hr. But it'll be hauling which will limit the amounts somewhat.
  12. If the GFS is right and the mid level lows/banding go to town as it heads east off NJ, it'll be an insane few hours. Too bad there's nothing to slow the storm down but I'm liking this more and more. Glad to have been proven wrong on the N trend.
  13. GFS is an absolute crushing from about dawn through noon. Wow.
  14. It’ll still be tough in Midtown to accumulate but the colder places in the city look to get crushed. And I think up near I-84 should still be good since there’s very often a northern fronto band with good ratios.
  15. Models seem to have stopped the south shifts so looks like central NJ to NYC/LI are good to go. Finally a good storm trending the right way at the end!
  16. Mid level lows show how this CCB might really happen. Looks good at 500/700mb.
  17. Becoming optimistic this’ll be a good one for us. 2/28 last year was very marginal and we had 5” of paste. But we know the risks with white rain etc. The dynamics and snow rates with this one look awesome.
  18. If it pounds heavy snow it will drop to 32-33 but we'll see how the precip shield comes in. That's always another question.
  19. I'll definitely enjoy it and not negative whatsoever about it. Just have to be realistic about a storm coming into this airmass and we're still on the southern end of the good stuff. I'm getting excited for my area-the "sniff rain" zone like I said should be good in this storm. But southern NYC and the south shore could still be a ton of white rain. Head up to Van Cortlandt Park for this one.
  20. N NYC, N Shore, N of I-80 sure. S Shore still not looking great. Tough call still.
  21. That run checks the boxes. Later today hopefully more/better.
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