Jump to content

jm1220

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    25,522

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    GFS looked a little better I thought. Still wonky/weird snow map due to bad resolution. Anyway from here I wouldn't use it anymore.
  2. jm1220
    Reasonable, I predicted 9” for Central Park last night. 10” for the north shore, 7-8” for the south shore.
  3. jm1220
    Yeah-if mixing is getting close to I-80 in PA here, it would definitely get to the city and LI. They will catch up to the other guidance overnight.
  4. jm1220
    The snow depth might be counting the sleet that’s on the ground in addition to the snow. With the amount of liquid total vs snow amount it shows there could be 2-3” additional as sleet.
  5. jm1220
    The 500/700mb setup matters most in terms of the precip we get not the surface (unless plain rain). This isn’t your normal heavy snow setup for NYC. It’s a typical Nina SWFE that has a better antecedent overrunning dome than normal putting more of us in the game for an initial thump.
  6. jm1220
    The 12/26 clipper it overdid the mid level warming.
  7. jm1220
    They could still be right. We’ll see what they say at 0z then I’d say it’s time to look at radar trends and start to buy more into the short range models.
  8. jm1220
    I’m sure it’s somewhat excessive. It probably jumps the sleet line all the way to I-84 still. You can see how the amounts drop from Monticello area to I-84.
  9. jm1220
    Well, if there’s 5” of snow at 10-1 ratio (0.5” liquid) then 1” liquid as sleet, that’s 8” total with sleet at 3:1 ratio. And again I don’t think this is gospel correct but it’s been consistent enough today to think it has to be onto something since it’s usually a little better at finding these warm layers, although it often overdoes it somewhat.
  10. jm1220
    We’ll know in the morning as the snow shield comes into the area. We need the hellacious thump the RGEM models and HRRR/RAP show.
  11. jm1220
    At this point the NAM is probably overdone a little with the warmth but it has something of a clue. I believe it more than the cold HRRR/RAP that I’ve seen come in too cold in SWFE setups.
  12. jm1220
    It’s getting to the point where I start considering it. If other models trend south/colder tonight it’s onto something.
  13. jm1220
    At 21z tomorrow it has sleet south of NYC still and keeps trying to wash it out as it advances. If that happens most of us will be very very happy. I’m still wary of it being too cold in these setups though.
  14. jm1220
    Put all observations in this thread. 14 here currently, hoping I can luck out and make it to double digit snow/sleet combo. Good luck to all and may the yellow sleet line on the CC radar get curb stomped.
  15. jm1220
    The heavy precip will help for sure cooling the column for a while but eventually all guidance gets the sleet line through the city and LI, probably by 4-5pm. Just north of the city it could go back and forth.
  16. jm1220
    Yep, they still get the thump to start maybe 4-6”, but the easterly fetch eventually gets temps over 32 especially near/east of the Garden State Parkway. Interior S NJ might have an icing event since I think this surface cold will be hard to dislodge.
  17. jm1220
    Yep seems to be a LIE dividing zone as happens so many times. Most areas here are covered in at least some snow. I was in Long Beach on Thursday and nothing.
  18. jm1220
    No. Maybe Montauk and a tiny part of the twin forks. I’m more worried about it for the NJ coast where there’s a much longer fetch off the ocean on ENE wind.
  19. jm1220
    So would probably add up to about a foot even if assuming 10-1 snow ratio. 0.6” as sleet would be 1.8”, almost 2” plus the 10” snow.
  20. jm1220
    Oh man am I praying.
  21. jm1220
    I’m hoping for the freezing drizzle at the end-maybe it happens in the dry slot when there’s little lift. It’ll encase everything into a glacier.
  22. jm1220
    Take the betting stuff to banter. I get it lol but keep this for storm discussion only.
  23. jm1220
    Back down to 14.
  24. jm1220
    Very dry air though. Dewpoint is -11 at JFK.
  25. jm1220
    It has crappy resolution which results in the weird snow map outcome but it doesn't have a heavy consolidated snow shield like the RGEM group does. Has an inch per hour maybe which is moderate snow.
×
×
  • Create New...