jm1220

If you want to debate whether the Earth is round or not or how round it is in 2025 (OMFG) there are other threads to do it in. Wow…

More consolation coatings!

And looks like it could mean more dry cold to SWFE/cutter. Pacific jet looks fast, ridge axis is off the W Coast, NAO looks neutral to positive.

Then gas up a boat and book it 200 miles SE?

Could that matter for Richmond up to maybe Cape May? Absolutely. For us we would need major changes to the degree that the models would be laughingstocks for us to get meaningful snow. Meaningful=shovel/plow needed. The upper low related snow could leave coatings to an inch here or there, and maybe some IVT like feature develops which is impossible to ferret out until it’s there. But otherwise the lights are off, doors shut and blinds slammed down. It’s way more than the 50 mile shift we sometimes need.

Icon and RGEM look like the same suppressed garbage. We know where we can toss the NAM.

Despite the cold, which is nothing that remarkable but just stands out given the warming climate, I consider this one of our lousier winters for that reason. Just endlessly skipped over by everything of note except of course any rain events like 2 days ago or New Years Eve.

There might be a way some of us across the area get our consolation coating from the upper low coming through. It’s a closed upper low and quite dynamic, although for me it’s just a reminder of what could have been had the overall pattern not kept it ripped apart.

Their 10-15 year average now can’t be over low to mid-30 inches per winter anymore. So far this winter pretty sure they’re under 20” again. Their long term average is around 45”. The big miller A coast huggers is how they get their bigger totals, otherwise it’s very slim pickings there for anything more than 6” per storm. 3/14/17 was okay there but not great. Miller B-type storms almost always form too late, SWFEs are sleet bombs there, benchmark tracks are too far east, and even clippers often shadow there. It’s also a downslope zone for any rare lake effect or orographic snow which is huge just to their SW in the Laurel Highlands. In colder winters you can have a series of smaller snow events build up somewhat of a snowpack but for snow lovers Central PA from I-80 south especially is a place to stay away from unless those March 1993 and 94 storms come back. Just seems like today the snowstorms all get their act together too late so they nail the Poconos on NE or bad tracks. When I was there winter was dreadfully boring with tons of sleet or piddly few inch snow events.

Flat as a pancake.

Plug has been pulled. It lived a great but short life of maybe 2-3 model runs where ensembles showed a decent shot and we had MECS operational runs. Its nickname-“Buckle up” will always cause awkward laughter and shame. The KU book booted it right out faster than the kicker diving in on it.

And lots of windy useless/wasted cold days like today. And the several more to come this week.

Because the flow isn't amplifying up the coast which would bring moisture with it. The kicker to the west knocks out the western ridge and there's also confluence north of us. So the trough remains a strung out zonal mess that gets booted out.

The overall setup looked like something that may produce but most also said it was something that could easily fall apart mostly because of the unfavorable Pacific. And gee whiz... No one should be surprised we're left with more suppressed garbage.

Maybe it'll just get pinned at the south pole. Maybe some flurries to the Falkland Islands.

When even Norfolk gets blanked, you know it's bad.

Not so bad. I’d rather it miss by 200 miles like this shows vs have a heavy snow band 40 miles south of me like 2/6/10. This year is just comical though for all the suppressed screw jobs.

It’s being destructively interfered with by confluence to the north and a kicker to the west. So actually a double whammy against this one. Maybe these pieces can move around or weaken but time’s running short.

A chunk of E NC and S VA/Delmarva might end with more snow than NYC this year and maybe a good amount more. When was the last time that happened, 1979-80 which was a Nino? I think 12z tomorrow is the final pull the plug, right now it’s on life support getting every AED given to it in the building.

Awesome. Get it out of here.

Cool. Another tooth pull for maybe an inch or two scraper. T-storms on New Years Eve and drenching rain on days like today always a sure bet though.

Just did a check-the only city at/over average is DC. Every other is below to well below. Safe to say this was a huge bust. Philly-50% of average to date Trenton-74% of average to date Central Park: 62% of average to date JFK: 68% of average to date LGA: 75% of average to date BDR: 85% of average to date ISP: 55% of average to date BDL: 61% of average to date PVD: 62% of average to date BOS: 86% of average to date (SWFE is a good pattern for I-90 and they had 2 good ones now)

Drenching here. Pools forming in the snowpack in my backyard.

If we still have boiling SSTs east of Japan going into next winter, the northern stream Pacific jet will likely be supercharged again and lead to much the same outcome. The colder winter this year gave us a fighting chance for the minor snow events we have but when you have 100 shortwaves sprayed all over the country all destructively interfering and bolting east, this is the outcome we get. No one should be surprised which thankfully it seems like people are accepting. Bring on spring.

Abso-freaking-lutely. Get us out of this nightmare.