jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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If you see 2 or 3 closed 500mb contours SE of LI, really nothing else to be said-those have been our top snowfall producing setups. Inland wouldn't do quite as well but maybe close because of less wind (wind can hamper ratios by breaking up the flakes) and excellent moisture transport in the CCB. And we all know these love to put a NW fronto band in there somewhere like West Milford which always seems to get hammered in these.
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Some of the parking lot piles will still be around in May after this lol.
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Yeah-once you see that closed 500mb low go SE of LI 75 miles or so, that's top class stuff.
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I have about 32" now so if there's 12" from this that gets me to 44" which I'd consider quite good. My average here going back 30 years is probably about 35". Islip is 31" I think.
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It’ll probably have the same water content as Jan 25th’s.
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Maybe at the very start there are a few raindrops or mix on the coast? There’s no concern about it cutting down accums.
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Since 2022? Definitely. But before Jan 2022 we had plenty of coastal storms that favored NYC and east.
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There’s no concern about rain with this storm, none whatsoever
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There’s very rarely room for error in any major snowstorm we get and the trends are in our favor. I’ll gladly take it.
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The storms aren’t officially chosen until next year for this winter I think but given the huge geographic area affected and BOS walking away with 23”, it’s a very high likelihood. It’s based on severity times number of people affected.
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I’d say 1/25 is almost certainly a KU.
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Doesn’t really matter to me what TV met X is forecasting right now, it’ll go up by this evening. 6-12” in the city is probably a good call at the moment, chance highest for 12”+ in Suffolk and coastal NJ.
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Yep, looking more likely we finally break the curse with these coastal storms to some extent anyway.
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Oh I agree, totally what we want to be seeing.
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Hopefully the Euro can finally jump on so we can start really talking bigger amounts (GFS is still probably excessive until other guidance jumps on. Other models are still further east/more strung out with the low).
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Yep that would be a crushing, shut it down run.
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Looks like the phase happens in a good spot and the 500mb low consolidates so we have a good enough mid level setup to generate lots of precip for most of us.
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If the phase is cleaner and happens in a better spot/sooner, it’ll be better for us. We don’t want all these vorts ahead of the trough though, that’s what spawns these convective lows.
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This wouldn’t be a “warm nose” type system-the 700 and 850 lows are tracking SE of us so no warm air advection at those levels.
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It’s adjusting. Rehoboth Beach isn’t getting 36” lol.
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Well as great as the GFs was for us, we really need to see other guidance jump on to have any faith in that kind of outcome. A minor/moderate brush still very much on the table.
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I’m not worried about it being rain, it’s probably from poor dynamics before the storm takes off.
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Waiting for the Euro/anything else to jump on. What a tough forecast.
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Hey-we all know how bad the Tidewater’s been lacking and how much they need another one while we get cirrus.
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Mar 2017 was the second worst bust where I live other than Mar 2001, maybe even actually worse. 12”+ predicted, ended up 4” maybe all washed away by the end. Utterly horrendous. Other than that disaster 16-17 was actually a decent winter.
