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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    We’ll see what happens in PHL. Under a warning but downtown is still at 40 (it will cool quickly when snow starts) and short range models have most snow near Allentown and along I-78.
  2. jm1220
    Some reports from Ohio up to 9” from the Pittsburgh thread. And still snowing (light) there.
  3. jm1220
    Some overachieving in E Ohio, some places already over 4”. That skinny band and nearby mean business.
  4. jm1220
    Maybe some help from easterly flow and upslope? It’s been kinda consistent with the snow maxes in central PA.
  5. jm1220
    We have snow cover to help radiate plus out of the UHI.
  6. jm1220
    If that’s all you got on Tue you have a really good shot at that. I won’t get 7.5” but hopefully 3-4” to refresh the pack for a couple days. Had a lot of melt today in the strong sun and temps over 40. Snow will also stick right away and none gets wasted to getting temps to freezing. I’m down to 29 and looks like you’re 31-32.
  7. jm1220
    I ended with 7.5”. That off run gave me over a foot, I think 16” which was obviously way high. It’s really nowcast time to see where the banding sets up and heads through PA.
  8. jm1220
    Euro had a burp run at 6z as the last storm came in that gave me 16”. Not concerned whatsoever.
  9. jm1220
    Already down to 30 here. Watching the heavy band right around PIT and west from there argues that this has legs pretty far north for us.
  10. jm1220
    Should be a really nice event for the South Shore. Can't think of the last time they were looking at the jackpot. Pretty much endlessly the last 2 winters they've been shafted even more than everyone else. Could be some 6" amounts if banding edges north just a little more which happens quite often. Look at how crazy far N the fronto band made it in the last storm.
  11. jm1220
    Who knows where that zone ends up, but there’ll definitely be a pretty narrow zone that does really well and just south gets ripped off in subsidence. This doesn’t have a ton of moisture with it and relies a lot on the mid level forcing to squeeze out juice. But all will get snow which in this winter is still a huge win.
  12. jm1220
    If we’re heading into a Nina later this year, we want a high ACE summer for the following winter. Has a strong correlation to a good/snowy winter here. Hopefully we get lots of long track storms to rack up the ACE that recurve.
  13. jm1220
    If you believe some of the models today like the NAM just came out, they may be in a min between the northern fronto band and snow closer into the low. Hi-res models definitely emphasizing a rip off zone somewhere in S or C NJ between both. Anyway will be great to bump up the snowpack. Definitely some melt today especially where the sun hits. I’m thinking I-78 to 80, NYC and much of LI could be good for 3-5” based on trends today.
  14. jm1220
    Euro keeps the idea that there’ll be a relatively skunked area between the northern fronto band and main snow area near the low. Won’t be a problem for us but for Philly and S NJ might be.
  15. jm1220
    It’ll be fine with accumulating snow with the airmass and dews we have. Midtown as always is a different story but will accumulate too if it’s heavy enough.
  16. jm1220
    I haven’t had a chance to dive into it but ratios are determined more by cloud level temps where the snowflakes are made. If temps in the snow growth zone are -12 to -18C you’ll have the best snow growth (dendrites that pile up) and ratios. If the cloud is too cold often you’ll have needle/sand flakes which will be 10-1 or maybe even less.
  17. jm1220
    RAP looks really good. High end advisory event for most. That fronto band across central PA and NJ keeps ticking north. Between that and the main low may be a mini shaft zone so if that keeps going north Philly and I-195 might be in subsidence, but the consensus now is the best snow there.
  18. jm1220
    Wouldn’t be surprised to see northern areas score again. Looks like another high ratio heavy snow band could set up on the north extent of the good snow which is definitely trending N.
  19. jm1220
    HRRR with a good advisory event for just about all.
  20. jm1220
    Good trends overnight. We don’t need much at least around the city for an advisory event. Hopefully we see it continue with a slightly stronger system.
  21. jm1220
    Had some snow grains stick on my deck from the snow/graupel shower earlier.
  22. jm1220
    It consolidates the snow into a coastal low so it dissipates as it comes east from PA. We want that whole setup further north so either the coastal low develops later and that snow survives or we get clipped by the developing low.
  23. jm1220
    Flurries in E Northport.
  24. jm1220
    Looks like an issue with dry air drain coming down the Hudson/CT River with the cold air. Sometimes we get skunked from the city east with that in minor events.
  25. jm1220
    RGEM very nice event, would probably be 3-5” especially I-80 south given ratios. Might have a nice snow cover in places that get hit decently with this and last storm.
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