jm1220

Thing is unfortunately next time will trend north too and screw us. Disaster of a winter that can’t end soon enough. Nice mild day today at least.

I have to think the GFS/Euro idea is right here but that CMC run is a huge forehead scratcher this close in. Maybe these south outliers mean GFS/Euro are too amped, I can hope anyway. But it can easily rampage north at 0z.

Yeah wow. WTF with this storm.

Depends on what the confluence does. It lets go whatsoever and we’re toast.

It’s good IMO that it’s staying south. Maybe it means we’re not dealing with a huge late N push again and it isn’t that great a model anyway. I wouldn’t be worried at all north of the city unless we see a bigger confluence push on the other models.

Looks like this is one where the two good areas will be just N of where the rain/snow line sets up and it’s cold enough and on the N end of the storm where good ratios happen and the northern most fronto band sets up. But those bands will pivot around so the people in good snow should all have fun at some point.

It definitely can snow despite lousy temps going into it. But that all depends on the storm taking a good track. It seems like this one might be seeing how fast the R/S line can crash south with the dynamics. We probably all see snow to end it but after how much rain or waste.

Hopefully this is the one where we make it happen and deny the usual late north push. But I’d way rather be in Boston or along I-84 to 90. If the confluence is real and does its job it can work, but we know what the odds favor.

Tough winter.

Like I said.... you do you. Hopefully the optimism pans out. Believe me we're due for the rabbit out of the hat. But don't also "we'll never get a snowstorm again, NYC is the worst place ever for snow" when it most likely pounds I-84/90 after it trends north in the last 48hrs. Hang out with the New England crew who will be measuring/celebrating I guess.

There's a reason the mets are starting to honk in the New England forum but not here and WDrag didn't start a thread. Take from that what you will. And take what we've seen forever with this kind of system usually trending north at the end unless we get the rare pocket ace from stronger confluence.

It's awesome but we'll have to see if GGEM is catching up to the vigorous but north models since it was so sheared out before. Maybe we can find a middle ground somewhere.

And throw any 10-1 ratio map out the window. Unless it pounds like crazy right out of the gate and drives the temp down to 32, we will struggle with white rain and getting the snow to stick until temps drop. Again it can happen here if we get things right but anyone casting a bet would wager otherwise (talking near the city and much of LI).

We have initial lousy temps that the storm will have to overcome even if it does track favorably and bomb out which is another big question. The low/lame predictions for NYC at this point are totally justified. There's the rabbit out of the hat chance it comes together but we all know what the odds favor and who they favor.

GFS also went north from 18z. Still verbatim OK for the city but based on a late change to snow and pounding for a few hours it seems. If other models follow tonight it's clear where this is headed.

Central PA has several ski areas near Penn State where I went to school that have suffered for almost 20 years now since the pattern pre-2005 is pretty much gone. They are a couple ridges too far east to cash in on lake effect or upslope, more coastal hugger Miller A systems then (92-93 and 93-94 were epic there), more small clipper 2-4" type storms, miller B type systems would transfer to the coast earlier and not doom them to sleet to dryslot while further north and New England get pounded, etc. There have been some half decent seasons since 2003-04 but in State College at least nothing over 60" I think since then. Their yearly average has nosedived, was 48" when I went to school there of course when the nosedive started, I think now it's about 40" and of course in this "winter" I think they have about 18" so far and their fate with this upcoming storm depends on the same usual late bumps north as us.

And what would the inevitable NAM'd run represent here, the first commercial fusion reactor times Mount Pinatubo spontaneously erupting which will cool the atmosphere enough in the 72 hours left times the Big Bang to our chances?

If winter's doomed to total garbage, today will do perfectly fine. The worst is useless cold and dry to warm and the storms hit then. Sucks though for the Catskills, etc ski resorts that rely on the snow.

RGEM looks okay but slight bump north would screw most of us probably. Warmish to start in the city but would probably switch to heavy snow pretty quickly. ICON went back north at 0z to congrats I-90. GFS coming soon.

From your lips to God's ears. If this does track far enough south I'm in a pretty good spot to make lemonade out of crap marginal conditions initially.

I'll give it another 24 hours before diving in. Won't take much of a late bump north to turn it lame near/south of I-80. Need the confluence to hold on. We already did see one system this winter tick south at the end due to strong confluence and hit S NJ/DC area so it's possible but more often we see the late amped/north trend and this might be a much stronger system. I-84 to I-90 corridor is in the best spot for this IMO.

FWIW, probably not a lot, ICON looked a little better at 18z.

You also want to look at the mid level low tracks not just the surface, if anything you especially want to look at the mid level lows. If the 700/850 lows are over or north of you, you’ll very likely mix or dry slot quickly. For good snow you want to be north of those. For the surface as we all know the airmass heading into this is lousy at best, so we need heavy thumping snow to start the accumulations.

This is another utter trash what can go wrong will “winter”. We accept it and move on. At least today turned out nice and temp around 50.

Gee whiz. Models went too suppressed at day 4-5 with another storm? No strong confluence=another NYC washout.