jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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If we can time the moisture/storm with cold air, we can definitely still get clobbered in late Feb. Odds are strongly that we’ll have a below to well below average snow winter again but we can make up a lot of ground if this Feb stretch can work. My average is probably around 35” for the winter and I have 5”, so I’d need a stretch like Feb 2021 to reach average which is unlikely but I guess possible.
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Can’t speak for historical precipitation, Bluewave or Don would have those stats but at least precip wise we’ve been getting wetter and wetter despite the possibility we’re transitioning back to a less favorable snow regime here. The climate change signal is always in the background and warmer air can hold more moisture. There are also many ways we can get blasted with heavy rain in most patterns unless the jet stream is very suppressed. The West getting heavy rain and especially snow again is great news for them but the population boom out there likely still means long term water supply issues.
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Definitely not in a position to assert one way or the other but most of our really prolific setups had help from the Pacific. It also helps that the Atlantic warmed somewhat which added moisture to the big snow events we got. Now that the Pacific seems to have entered a -PDO, Nina-like long term state with practically boiling waters off Japan and Indonesia, it’s a lot less favorable for us and we see the West get continually dumped on with snow and cold.
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We can get blasted by both types of storms-ones that favor New England and ones that favor the Mid Atlantic but also get totally boned when they just miss. It’s the pro/con of living in the transitional climate area between both regions we do.
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If you want to build an island 150 miles or so SE of here you can probably enjoy it every time we have strong NW wind CAA in the winter. That’s been rare though.
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Patterns where they get deep winter we usually torch. The roaring Pacific jet goes south of them, keeps cold air bottled up there and plenty of storms. We want cold dislodged from there to make it here.
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Final total in Boston looks like it was 0.3”. No moderate event for them either. What a pathetic storm in a pathetic winter.
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Some mangled flakes in Melville. Sun trying to peek out.
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Very rare that we get to 1/30 and if there is no winter at that point there’s a miracle turnaround. Fine as far as I’m concerned, at least do away with any false hope and move us onto spring.
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Rain here, maybe some mangled flakes.
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Guess we’ll find out. Fingers crossed. I’ve noticed that enhanced area across the middle of the island for the last day or so on the high res models but sometimes they overdo elevation enhanced snow/precip.
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If we could buy a sustained +PNA with cold available to be sent SE we would be fine. But we get brief cold windows where we can’t get anything to produce other than our minor couple of inch events, and long periods where we turn into San Francisco or otherwise torch because the Pacific is awful and flings wave after wave of puke east across the country, and/or the cold is mostly shunted across the pole.
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So basically we have a more wet Nina winter. Can certainly tell that today. Yippee!!
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They probably get 1-3” and toward the end as the cold air comes in and especially if there’s a CCB feature that develops. The lousy airmass and easterly wind problem hurts them too. I just want to get some pattern to develop that gets me meaningfully over the way below average 5” on the season. Even more sucky is that DC has up to double what we have. This is just god awful for mid winter. But if not I’d rather not have false hope and we just torch from here on out. Rather be able to enjoy the outdoors then.
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Eventually our luck with these north-based Bermuda highs and ridges that drive in S winds and the worst heat overshoots north will end and we'll torch on W and WNW flow again.
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My shovel is sitting collecting dust for a second straight winter. Wouldn’t surprise me if it keeps sitting there until next year. Unless it’s to help bail out from our record rains which of course we can count on now like clockwork.
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I was in torture living 1800 miles away at the time. The potential was really there but in a Miller B situation getting that to NYC would've required a picture perfect setup but the usual late development killed it.
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The cold air would come behind the storm.
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You might want to try the Berks, Green or White Mountains. Low elevations might not be the best given the crap preceding airmass.
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To me this will trend north like these usually do which means stronger but more warm air kept in and a better storm for New England and I-84. Or it gets weaker and shifts south but fewer dynamics so a lousy outcome for everyone. Again the ceiling for us near the city is very low, maybe a sloppy inch or two if there’s a middle of road outcome? Given this setup I don’t see how this can end well here given what we’re going into the storm with airmass wise. Expectations should be very low outside the favored areas I mentioned.
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I don’t have time to go through and delete all the crap going back and forth but take the bickering etc over geography to banter. It’s frustrating, I get it and I’m frustrated too that this storm will likely suck for me again and we’re dealing with Pacific puke on 1/25. But we have banter for that.
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I’m not optimistic on this one mostly because we’re in a position near the coast where we have to wait for cold air to come in or dynamics to generate cold which mostly fail here. Of course places that need less help like up near I-84 or I-90 to Boston are favored. There’s the PNA that could help this be a good track but an L in the right place doesn’t guarantee snow, and we’re going into it with a putrid airmass. 97-98 type system.
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I’d say there was 1.5” or so here given the additional vs what I saw when I left. Fluff and it was interesting how some meso models saw the bonus on the north shore. Very wintry scene.
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Not entirely accurate-5” or so for the season for the N Shore but yeah-the S Shore once again is the worst place to be for snow outside the Delmarva. That NYC and notch to cover the S Shore is an absolute snow pit since 18-19.
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Maybe with the northward Hadley cell drift over time we’re becoming more Carolinas/FL climate-like with more S wind driven heat/humidity in the summer. It’s OT but the next time we have a W wind driven heat wave we’re in big trouble. The rest of the country is heating up like this over the summer and FL just had a record hot summer, it’ll be our turn soon enough.
