jm1220

It’ll suck but I’ll be good if it’s 50 and no snow on the ground. It was the story all last “winter” and most of 21-22 other than January. Rather that than frigid and no snow, at least when it’s 50 you can do things outdoors. Just hopefully in this next Pacific projectile vomit period it’s not full of rainy cutters that destroy whats left of the beaches and flood the rivers. And we can get one last chance at something decent in Feb before totally calling this winter another fail.

I had 12-13” in Long Beach in that storm. Bellmore/Wantagh on East is where that sound enhanced area set up at the end of the storm and dumped another 6” probably. It was very noticeable on the Wantagh Parkway coming out of Jones Beach. East from there it increased and there must’ve been 20”+ in Deer Park. Driving up 231 back to my place it dropped off again around Dix Hills and at my house there was probably 15”. That band that sat over SW Suffolk must’ve really dumped. In Long Beach that few hour period was light to moderate and lots of blowing snow, and radar showed it heavy in those places. Long Beach benefits in only maybe 1 of 50 setups. Gets screwed over in any winter setup otherwise. Where I live now also very rarely is the jackpot but cumulatively does well over an entire winter.

It did cover the colder surfaces but I wouldn’t call it more than a few tenths. The snow was freshened up, that’s about it.

Holbrook is the boom/bust part of Suffolk. Max out on storms like the Jan 2022 blizzard and the big offshore storms that blast New England, get skunked today. I’d still take that trade over Merrick where he came from. In S Nassau you can’t seem to win with any setup. Looks great at my house now, definitely way more than Long Beach got. Nice fluff storm here. I definitely traded up snow wise as sad as it’s been.

If we’re throwing away 10-14 days at least in our biggest snow climo time of the year that’s never good. Hopefully it’s with fewer raging cutters with coastal and river floods and we can get calmer warmer weather you can somewhat enjoy outside. We can still get big snow late in Feb but after 2/20 or so it gets harder, especially into March unless you’re inland and elevated. Nino March also tends to be warm. If the Pacific is roaring back into a frenzy that’s enough for me to close the shades.

The grass is covered back up here on the south shore so it’s something. I’m sure it’s a lot better at my house where there’s maybe 2” new. Here in Long Beach it didn’t even cover my black car (which probably warmed up more from the sun). But grass/old snow is freshened up.

Wouldn’t have thought the north shore would do better than south today. But alas….

Coating here on old snow/cold surfaces. Pavements wet. Light snow.

Looks like a nice burst in the N Shore. I‘m in Long Beach for this event. Alternating between light snow and flurries.

Some sticking on colder surfaces.

Finally light snow here. No accumulation yet besides whitening some of the old snow.

Pixie dust flakes. Again maybe something more meaningful can make it north of Monmouth but I’m not encouraged. Radar keeps getting that confluence eaten up look north of that Monmouth band and models shred up what gets north of there and has a dry hole over NYC/LI until later today when it consolidates to the south in the IVT. The dry air/confluence is coming from the NE so west of the city may do better. When you have the ESE lean to the snow coming out of PA like we have today it’s confluence driven and models often show snow when there’s virga.

As you can tell I’m not optimistic about this at all. Hopefully I’m wrong.

Pixie dust flakes in Long Beach.

You can see the radar echoes drying up over LI from the confluence. Maybe a wave or two can reach the south shore but I doubt much happens here beyond the flurries we have now honestly because it will keep getting eaten up until the inverted trough develops and shifts the snow south. Maybe the south shore can get lucky with a coating to inch.

They'll likely back down north of I-195 with the overnight update.

Seen this show before, I remember a couple of these in 18-19 that dried up as soon as the snow got to Trenton and DC/Baltimore got warning snow. This looks to be another of those. Might not be much of anything here given the trends. The snow will head northeast until it hits the confluence brick wall. Just can't catch a break.

Might end up another DC to Baltimore storm.

Looks if anything like snow is trending south even more. North of Sandy Hook be happy if it’s more than 1”. Just isn’t able to do it against the confluence. Of course we finally have a south trend/ more confluence leading into an event.

My “time to be concerned if we don’t see a turnaround” window is around now and not encouraging to see these signs of the Pacific going on another rampage. If snow is out of the question I’m fine with it warming into the 40s-50s again. Screw these cold periods with nothing to show for it. If it’ll be another total fail “winter” the worst is useless cold.

Time to take it behind the horse barn.

NAM looks lousy/south.

Also keep in mind as Don said ratios may be above 10-1, so 0.2 of precip may be 2.5” snow.

It’s disappointing but we have snow on the ground and will get more tomorrow to freshen it up. Hopefully the NWS is right in it being more aggressive.

RGEM looks like dung but the WRF models look pretty amped/wet.