jm1220

It'll be close but I think we make it to 4". Hopefully a couple more moderate bursts and improving ratios. This will definitely stick around-it's going to freeze into a brick.

The usual 700mb fronto/convergence band with high ratios set up inland, so even with maybe less liquid those areas will still do better than down here. There's almost always that far NW band that develops and nails someone. Unfortunately it seemed to cause subsidence SE of it and this storm just isn't that organized with a good transport of Atlantic moisture. We have a nice few hours but a better developed CCB would've been much better for everyone. Last night hinted at it possibly then this AM that hope fell apart. But of course it's better than the washout the Canadian had for 2-3 days.

Can't even imagine. They don't have the equipment down there or the experience to deal with an inch of snow much less 6"+. Any amount of snow/ice there pretty much shuts a city down.

Almost 2" now. Really coming down.

HRRR seems to end things between 10-11pm at least mod-heavy accumulating snow. I'll gladly take this as long as it lasts and at this clip I might be able to make it to 4-5" which a few hours ago was doubtful.

Snow really picking up now and bigger flakes.

We’ll drop some more in the next couple hours, it’ll be in the 20s by the time snow ends. Would like to see bigger flakes for better ratios but next few hours will be fun regardless. Ratios are mostly determined by the snow growth in the cloud, you want it -12 to -18C in the snow growth and strong lift. Lousy snow growth initially is why we were dealing with dippin’ dots.

Almost an inch now. More dippin' dots with the snow.

Only time I’ve ever witnessed thunder snow was the 12/30/00 storm. Would be awesome for it to happen here tonight.

I’m only a half inch ahead of you and you should be changing over soon. This batch looks like it’ll swipe the whole island.

Down to 31. Light snow, no more graupel. About a half inch on the table, everything including street covered. That batch in NJ looks awesome, if that can pivot over for a few hours 4” is possible after all.

Looking at DE and E MD that’s probably our chance to really accumulate east of the city when that pivots in. We need that to last a couple hours at least.

We’ll just have to see what happens, I’m not optimistic. The stuff south of us looks rather shredded. Maybe it’ll strengthen later on but the best looks to be NW of us in that main band. Inland wins again. We’ll need a big turnaround to get to the 4” predicted and HRRR has been trending drier over time.

Light snow, maybe a little graupel still mixed in. Temp 32. Ground other than the street is coated.

It's been trending worse if anything. At this point it is what it is. Hopefully it'll be wrong.

Been that way for 20+ years now since I was an undergrad there 2005-09. UNV is always too far in any direction for the best snow and just too far E and on the downslope side of the Allegheny Ridge. Nickle and dime city. The average per year is higher than places to the SE but it's nails on a chalkboard to get there. Prepare to be annoyed countless more times. Anyway congrats to the S PA crew that are having a good storm. Hilarious that such a top meteorology school is in such a torturous place for snow.

No way, there's been showery precip up until now and even the barrier islands look like they're down to 34. There's just been less and less precip forecast and this band to the west looks more and more dominant so the inland areas will likely win after all. We need this stuff off NJ/DE to be intense for the few hours it's here.

Grauple/light snow, temp down to 33. Some accumulation on colder surfaces. Will start accumulating on pavement soon as the sun goes down.

It's had this enhanced area over the northern 1/2 of the island for the past several runs. Maybe that'll actually happen to some extent. Other than that it's the same concern about the banding west of us causing subsidence. We'll have to go to town when the meat of the coastal system comes through. One good thing is we'll have time to cool down by then.

Light snow-36. Mix of flakes and dippin' dots.

Hoping this E PA/NJ band doesn’t overwhelm everything else that tries to develop to the East, because if that becomes too stout there will be a zone east of it that gets shafted from subsidence. Some of the short range guidance is hinting at it.

I’m a little pessimistic about my home town for this storm which never happens in the winter (lol), they might struggle to get past 2-3” unless they go to town in a band. It’s 40 there now and it always takes forever for the immediate south shore to cool down. Short range models are also hinting at a subsidence zone somewhere east of the enhanced snow area in E PA/NJ. With Long Beach’s luck…

Anyway-36 here and cloudy. Looking forward to all the water outside refreezing with the snow into a brick. The initial snow here will be pasty before the cold hammers down and will all freeze solid. Hope everyone’s stocked up on the salt.

Short range models do show an enhanced area on LI to some extent. Wonder if we’ll get a little help from the Sound via convergence on the northerly flow enhancing the snow.

I’m thinking 3-5” for most and 6-7 where a band can set up. Shoreline where warm air is stubborn maybe 2-3. I wish the models stuck with the wetter 0z look but most backed off to some degree. Just doesn’t look like that organized/dynamic a system. Anyway it’ll be a fun few hours and we’ll definitely have a wintry look this week in the frigid cold.