jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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The heavier precip might push the sleet south temporarily. It shows sleet in SW Suffolk and part of Nassau but near JFK it’s still snow.
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The heavier echos might not be snow. CC shows that it might be sleet.
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HRRR shows another 1-2” or so especially east of the city so maybe the warm air can be held off. That would get most over 3”.
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Looks like a couple inches here. Good to see the grass completely covered and a wintry scene for once. There should be some more especially on the north shore. The mix line looks to be just off the beaches. Temps still in the upper 20s so still more nastiness to come.
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Was clear for a while that the best snow would be NW. Enjoy what we have for now and it shouldn’t be enough rain to wash it away. Dusting here at my house with light snow. The rain might just make it last longer anyway by freezing it into cement.
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Dusting on all surfaces in Oceanside.
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Yep, really serious situation on every Suffolk County beach. And we’re not even near done with the storms this winter. Huge rehabilitation needed on all the beaches.
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If the initial snow can thump for a while it’s possible. It’s all about how much we can squeeze out while we still have the cold air. Thankfully a lot is coming ahead of the warm air.
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For us we may reach 32-33 but we probably have several hours with light freezing rain or freezing drizzle. The immediate coast probably goes to 35 or so and rain. A good bit tougher to get rid of the surface cold on the north shore. The mesos are more sticky with the cold air here which is likely more accurate.
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If your expectation is for a couple inches to make it wintry outside, maybe 3” if lucky around the city, coast you’ll probably be fine. If you’re holding out for 4” or more you’ll probably be disappointed. Models including the LOL worthy but predictable late NW bump ones show the best snow NW of the city where it won’t change over. This isn’t a major event by any means but will put us all on the board finally. Hopefully Friday will be better. Considering there were zero threats until now it’s a big improvement.
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We're lucky there's so much precip before the warm air really arrives. Hopefully when that happens most of the storm is over. But regardless it's so hilarious to see another of these late big amped/NW pushes, which makes sense since we don't have any blocking to force a good track and the mean trough is so far west. The easterly winds will warm us up for a time east of the city. It can be as cold as it wants now but that wind shift warms us right up. But it will be brief.
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I think those of us near the coast will be limited somewhat by rain/sleet given the late as usual amped trend but we get something decent before the changeover and most of it will be left at the end-not washed away. The best will be NW of the city. As I said yesterday our ceiling here is probably a 2-3” event before it becomes too amped. Hopefully we can get that thump before the warm air arrives and we just have some drizzle in the few hours it’s too warm. If it does rain it might just make what’s on the ground into cement when it cools back down.
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Still a question of where that banding shows up. Other Hi-res modeling like the HRRR introduce more warm air and have the best snow NW of the city which is still quite possible. Models all do have at least 1-2” though so the ground will be white at least.
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3K especially is a nice little event for most with 4” in the city. If it changes to some drizzle at the end who cares since it will all turn to cement with the incoming cold anyway. It’ll be nice to have some snow cover with our cold airmass.
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Good that the 1-3” sweet spot outcome looks most likely now for all. It’ll be like a HECS considering that for some there hasn’t been any real snow event since Jan 2022. And it should stick around for a while since cold air is coming behind the storm.
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If the low trends amped it would turn the wind direction easterly and we don’t have a source to reinforce the cold air quite yet, that comes in earnest behind the storm. That’s why these amped models have light rain near the city. Hopefully we can find the middle ground that keeps it further offshore and a light snow event.
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Don’t be surprised if this trends to crap again for the city east since we normally have these storms trend NW at the end and the SE ridge isn’t modeled too well and often gets stronger closer into the event. And the cold air is really for after this event, not going into it. If we get prolonged easterly wind again near the coast we’re screwed.
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I hope you’re right but a stronger storm will probably trend NW and warm us up near the coast and it would be more mix/rain. The ceiling near the city is probably 2-3” before the system becomes too strong and brings warm air in. There’s really nothing to stop that from happening from amping too much. Of course inland in the same places where it snowed recently wouldn’t have this issue. I hope the 2-3” does happen but we have the same problem we’ve been having with a warm ocean east of us that will ruin whatever cold air we have previous on an easterly wind.
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1-3” will still be a really nice event compared to what we’ve had and that’s what the ensemble means show but it seems that if it gets more amped and therefore stronger, it will introduce more warm air. Hopefully I’m wrong but that’s what the setup seems to favor. I’m totally fine with the 1-3” and hopefully it works out with cold air coming in behind it, and something stronger can set up for 1/20 before we switch to mild again.
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It’s looking to me like there’s a pretty low ceiling for us city and east-either a weak snow event or a stronger snow to rain or mostly rain event. Nothing to really force a SE track if it does get stronger so if it strengthens beyond a 1-3” type event it would be more NW and rain here because it amps too much.
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Very dicey in parts of Oceanside/Island Park. Some side streets closed and main roads have a lot of water. W Park Ave in Long Beach also closed.
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