jm1220

That's about what I'd go with.

We need for the big coastal storms to come back-we had plenty of great storms/outcomes when we had those. This will be fine and I highly doubt it plain rains anywhere away from maybe Montauk but this type of system will always relatively suck for us here.

RGEM looked like it held serve. Bottom line is we're going to be paying close attention to the oncoming snow shield early Sun morning and hoping it comes in like a wall. Shredded crap and we might barely make it to the low end of forecasts (I'm talking for I-80, city and coastal areas). The wraparound stuff on Monday to me looks like a longshot and again something that would favor SNE. if the primary drives that far N and wrecks the mid levels, we just get the dry slot and whatever coastal redevelopment would be too far north. It's very unlikely this will be the lame usual SWFE but if you're expecting 12"+ in the city I'd start preparing for disappointment.

It was going to cave eventually. This type of storm doesn't jackpot NYC to Philly. These do best along I-90. This is the storm where Boston catches up and probably surpasses us at least along the coast for seasonal snow-wouldn't be surprised if they get 16-18". We're lucky we have this high pressure dome in place to provide an overrunning surface so we get the initial thump of snow down into VA, otherwise this would be the usual SWFE couple inches to rain/sleet. But is something like the NAM possible here with a stronger primary low-sure. Even that though would probably be 4-6" snow then a couple more inches of sleet-however it would also bring the dryslot in quicker.

If you add 1-2" of sleet that counts as accumulation too but I always thought 12" for NYC which they have now and 14" yesterday was too aggressive. I'd go with 12" maybe in Yonkers and 8" in SI/Rockaway.

Maybe the eastern tip of LI changes to rain but I highly doubt anyone else does unless we see prolonged onshore winds given the severity of the cold air coming in. I could see freezing rain happening if we get a shallower cold layer at the surface. Bottom line is hopefully this NAM run is wrong.

I’m not very concerned about it on its own but there’s definitely still time for late north bumps. The confluence needs to hold to force it south. We’re also definitely getting sleet at least up to I-80 and maybe even up to the CT coast eventually, it’s just a matter of how big the initial thump is and how long it can hold back the sleet line.

Yep pretty much back to 6z where mixing gets to almost all of CT and RI. Thankfully it’s on its own pretty much and other models got colder at 12z but a SWFE like system such as this will take any chance it can get to nudge north unless confluence stops it.

If the primary hangs on longer and we have a sharper western trough, more warm air gets pulled north and we flip sooner/more of us flip. Also if it’s drier with that setup we’re screwed two ways since a broken/lighter precip shield will allow warm air to take over sooner. It’s that simple. Hopefully it’s wrong.

In the teens. I was in State College-started as snow and pounded sleet for hours overnight. Then back to snow in the morning as the coastal got going. In total I think there was 11” but never got near freezing.

It’ll just make the snowpack denser. I don’t mind some sleet at the end. In Feb 2007 I was in that mess in PA and it was like goopy cement and lasted forever.

Looks about the same here. Still maybe a little high for me, but I can see how 12” happens if all goes well and we keep the SE ticks plus higher QPF.

Euro in general looked a little colder to me.

We’ll see, hopefully you’re right. If the sleet line just barely gets here or goes back and forth we have a real shot at 12”.

That stretch from Dallas/Waco to S VA will have devastating ice in some places for sure. And no power for a week or more.

Didn’t 2/1/21 give you guys like 20”? But I agree the last few winters have been lousy and N NJ was unlucky a number of times when my area did well.

Given the stretch coming up I’d be pretty stunned if this is our last significant snow. We probably have 1-2 more in this pattern. Hopefully we can finally get things to slow down enough for a major coastal storm again, would be pretty awesome if we can get another 970mb bomb SE of Montauk.

Don't trust kuchera, ratios are higher in this setup Kuchera is usually inflated. Ratios are determined by snow growth when temps are below freezing. It could be zero, 20 or 30 and ratios could be the same if snow growth is good or putrid.

I wouldn’t worry about random dry holes that show up like these.

Nationwide absolutely it’ll be a crippling storm. Agree-locally it’s something we’ve been getting every 1-2 years until this sucky stretch after Jan 2022 and I’d consider it disruptive but not crippling. Dec 2020-esque in my opinion which IMBY was 8”. At the very high end maybe we approach what we saw on 2/1/21 but that’s if everything works out perfectly. The first juiced clipper in Dec had 8” here but this one will have more impact since there will be more water in the snow/sleet to get to the 8”. I’m hopeful on the north shore we make it to 10” combined snow/sleet. If this major coastal storm happens next weekend that could locally be major or better.

GGEM looked pretty good to me, no weird dry slot/holes. To me a general overrunning system like this isn't as bandy as a major nor'easter would be and shouldn't have these random dry spots.

We have to watch how it plays out on Sun AM. It's going to be a very high impact storm here regardless of how much sleet we get and I'd argue even higher impact with sleet. Sleet is very tough to move and lasts longer. It will also all freeze up into a brick after it's done. The snowpack with 9-10" and sleet or 15-16" all snow has the same water content. Every model has the initial heavy thump of snow-does it stay intact like a wall or start shredding up, if it shreds up we get sleet sooner. That being said the sleet will sooner or later get here in this type of storm, always does.

To me it’s been steady as she goes for the last 2 days. There’ll be a very heavy initial thump of snow then we flip to sleet at least around I-80 and south for a while, looks like around mid to late afternoon. Hopefully by then most of the precip is done. The questions are really what happens on Monday with any coastal development and how fast the dry slot gets here. The stronger primary further north also means faster dry slot. It’s fundamentally a SWFE so the flip to sleet is coming for many. The real question area for sleet to me is around White Plains area to coastal CT and northern NJ.

If the overall storm evolution is shifting in a better direction that’s all I really need at this point.

Yep, weaker and further south primary is definitely what we want. I haven’t looked at the 700/850mb panels but I’d assume those improved as well.