jm1220

We're seeing the usual trend north on the Wed event since it's a SWFE and no resistance to the north. Super Bowl weekend storm looks maybe slightly better but again a SWFE, no blocking to the north to force a southern track so it once again favors New England. Some cold air to start on the weekend event but without an overrunning high N of us it gets quickly scoured out, and there might not be much precip out ahead of the storm in the cold preceding air. The high is centered east of us which drives in southerly winds. I'm not big on either of these two upcoming events as you can tell, at least I-84 south. Maybe if this blocking mid-month really happens and we get some amplification to prevent everything getting crushed south like in Jan something can work. Until then zzzzzzz and carry the umbrella.

12z GFS would just be a gut punch. But thing is it's totally feasible here. And it's that kind of winter.

HRRR looks a little better for the north shore with maybe 1", but it's the only model that really has any accumulation. It'll be close here but the heavier QPF NE of us and onshore flow are working against us. The south shore looks cooked. Congrats CT and Hudson Valley.

If we can keep some kind of SE ridge and develop the block we may be in business. If we lose one we risk either suppression or the gradient being north of us. We really need both for this to work. As others point out, around Super Bowl timeframe is our prime period for bigger snowstorms.

We didn’t change over to snow until the flow became northerly that day and the CCB fully developed and pivoted the snow around to the west. Initially we were stuck with crap maritime airmass and it had to be pushed out. Models have it in the mid to upper 30s tomorrow night and winds are onshore. It’s also a much weaker storm than the Feb 2010 snowicane lol. We’ll see what happens.

If it’s more than the consolation coating still I’ll be thrilled. The meat of it looks to be north of us and temps will still be marginal. High end is maybe an inch and it’ll be gone in a few hours on Monday. It’s something though I guess.

Flow is onshore which means the south shore torches, and maybe we stay marginal enough for snow to stick.

Hopefully we get some rain this month to refill the reservoirs-there will be drought restrictions for sure if we don't recharge before summer. I'm sure there will be some other 2-3" type snow events this winter to get me over 10", hopefully to 15" but that's still well below average here, less than 50% of average. If we do get a block again but no SE ridge it just means more suppression. We need some way to amplify the pattern to get storms to come north but resistance via confluence or weaker block so it doesn't turn into a strong primary to Erie that cooks us before we have a chance at redevelopment offshore. The AO should be positive which as Don points out is unfavorable for significant snow in NYC. We have the same fast Pacific flow pattern which will try to kneecap the amplification needed or favor SWFEs if the SE ridge gets too dominant. There's a small window for something to work out here but we should be realistic that it's small, and that might be a front ender to rain. I can't think of many gradient/SWFE patterns that work here (at least S of I-84)-we get one-offs sometimes like 2/22/08, but the last time that really worked here was an epic example like 93-94. I mean, there is the cold air to the north which could favor the front ender to rain if we have a good overrunning high for the SWFE to come into, but without some mechanism to prevent it from being scoured out or force redevelopments offshore in time, NYC is a very uphill climb.

Another consolation coating? It’ll be nice but I’m done caring about those when I’m sitting at 8” on 2/1. The upcoming pattern looks gradient/SWFE which to me means New England/I-90 is favored. If we have some mechanism to force them south like confluence or blocking we have a shot at a front end snow event at least but we all know these try to nudge north at the end.

Wake me up when any of them are within 72 hours.

That never happens. Impossible!

Winds are out of the south off the water and temps are steady or warming up. Any freezing rain if at all would be very brief around the city.

Even in the last two godawful winters I cleared 10” IMBY, I’m pretty confident there’ll be another event or two to get us over that mark and maybe if lucky 15-20”, but I see nothing on the horizon to change things up in a meaningful way, ie something that would bring a SECS/MECS. Central Park has 5.8” I think, it’s probably a coin flip whether they make it to 10”. So the overwhelming likelihood is another well below average snow winter.

Buckle up where-Detroit, Buffalo, Minneapolis? Or New Orleans, Pensacola and Savannah again?

Snowpack demolition day.

Just like NNE, it’s a matter of time before the upper Midwest finally cashes in during a Nina winter. When the SE ridge goes crazy that’s definitely the favored area for snow.

Average IMBY is low to mid-30 inches of snow a year. That’s not happening without a miracle turnaround. I have 8” or so and looking at goose-egg in the near future. I’m sure there will be another snow system before spring to get most of us to 10”+ but that’s still way below average and we’re getting closer to the time of year where it won’t stick around for long. So I’m fine with it being warm enough to do activities outside and just be done with another fail winter, 3 failures in a row. Get it out of here if it won’t snow, and this winter had the added kick in the teeth of it being snowy to our south. Hopefully we do get some needed rain to refill the reservoirs and water table for summer.

When we lose the cross polar source region and go back to modified polar, no surprise the temp forecasts go up as a result.

Forky and others said the Jan pattern might just be cold and dry. Big blocking NAO patterns often aren’t good for us, our opportunity is when the blocking breaks down. If there’s a huge block or confluence north of us, any storm will just run into a wall. The fast pattern also causes too much interference with shortwaves and prevents amplification.

Awesome, hopefully early Spring.

10-11 was the best winter for snow depth in my life, and I lived on the south shore at the time. It was absolutely epic just a few miles inland pretty much where they avoided warm air intrusions better. 1/26-27/11 was one of my all time favorites with epic snow rates overnight and thundersleet to kick it off.

It’s a Nina year, it’s only a matter of time before things turn around to very snowy for NNE.

No access to our OT forum which is a complete cesspool so it’s for the best.

Patchy down here in places with full sun, on the south shore where full sun there’s little left. It’s nice to have the snow cover for the days we have and it definitely helped temps get down to the single digits overnight.

Can’t say that definitively because maybe we can squeeze a half decent event in like 2/28/23 which was 4-6” for much of the area but not looking good. We sunk all the way down to a Richmond/Tidewater VA snow climate without larger KU events.