jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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I don’t know, I think the New England forum started it and it makes sense because they’re warm mid level overrunning events on SW flow so it caught on.
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Agree, no idea why people at this latitude root them on. You have the rare 2/22/08 or 11/14/18 where the snowy front end actually happens but 5/6 of them or more are crap south of I-84. They’re good for New England and UNY.
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If the snow comes in like a wall and starts heavy, the warm mid level air can usually be held off a bit, but if it comes in chopped up/shredded the warm air can move in quicker. This doesn’t look like a very dynamic system so the shredded look is probably more accurate.
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The mid level warm layer is usually undermodeled in SWFEs so the sleet usually begins sooner than shown 48 hours out. I’ll be thrilled with more than 1-2” at the start and a little is left/not washed away.
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Dec 2005 was a crazy N/S gradient where the south shore was all rain but the north shore had up to 6". This will be gone tomorrow anyway but nice little event.
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Freezing rain/snow mix with this band. Freezing rain because temp is 30. Large flakes breaking through whatever warm layer this is though.
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Mild air taking advantage of the lull to move north. We'll see what this last batch brings. Hopefully it's snow.
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1" on the dot so far. Back to pixie dust/dippin dots in this lighter stuff. Hopefully this last band can deliver a few more tenths.
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The ocean won't be denied. Thankfully for me this isn't a strong onshore flow event.
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I did my time living in Long Beach growing up and having numerous situations like this. But still, wild how it's up to 10 degrees warmer just a short drive down Rt 110. Farmingdale is 35 and rain.
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Glad it's working out, was a very marginal situation. A few miles south of me it's all rain unfortunately.
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Snow picking up here. Coastal warm front not moving N much, looks to be around Hempstead Tpke still.
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On 12/15/03 there was probably 6” that by the end was all washed away. It can definitely happen but once over 4-5” it’s tough unless temps really spike up to the 40s.
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If we have decent enough precip it might be hard to really get the warm air up here. This isn’t a strong onshore flow situation and it’s a fairly weak system.
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The coastal/warm front is moving N slowly, looks to be around Hempstead Tpke. South of there is probably rain or non accumulating snow since temp is 35-36. N of there is 30 or below. Like a summer time seabreeze.
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28, light dippin’ dots. Coating on all surfaces including street.
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If we get the rare 5-6” to rain, that’s usually fine with me because some is usually left by the end and it freezes solid behind the storm. Our big Dec 2020 and 2/1/21 storms had some rain or mix in them. But if it’s 1-3” to rain that washes it all away, to me that’s just pointless.
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Still 27-28 in this area, warm air coming into the south shore, it’s 35 on the barrier islands.
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HRRR still very dry but other models more wet, 0.2-0.25" or so. If we can catch a break maybe temps will stay cold enough and it can stay snow for many. It's a weak system and the onshore flow isn't that strong but hard to argue against just about every model having zilch south of the CT coast or Hudson Valley. The RGEM and latest NAM 3K has some chance in northern parts of the city and N Shore.
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Models seem to be shifting QPF to the north and east at the last minute. Might end up being congrats eastern half of CT to Boston. Latest HRRR has under 0.1" liquid for most of Fairfield County CT and LI west of the twin forks where it's too warm for snow.
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We're seeing the usual trend north on the Wed event since it's a SWFE and no resistance to the north. Super Bowl weekend storm looks maybe slightly better but again a SWFE, no blocking to the north to force a southern track so it once again favors New England. Some cold air to start on the weekend event but without an overrunning high N of us it gets quickly scoured out, and there might not be much precip out ahead of the storm in the cold preceding air. The high is centered east of us which drives in southerly winds. I'm not big on either of these two upcoming events as you can tell, at least I-84 south. Maybe if this blocking mid-month really happens and we get some amplification to prevent everything getting crushed south like in Jan something can work. Until then zzzzzzz and carry the umbrella.
