jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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You can see the echos drying up as they try to head E from NJ. 45-60 min of fun, otherwise more dreary suck before more useless cold with brown ground.
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Probably won't stay that way. 3 miles west of the airport it's plenty cold enough and that will come in as the storm heads NE. My guess is they break their 4" snow drought today. There's already been a burst of accumulating snow there too. Latitude/longitude FTW for them in this pattern.
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We’ve essentially had a Nina background state in the Pacific since late 2018 because of the very warm W Pacific. Even the strong official El Niño last winter couldn’t really dislodge it. It goes to show that sometimes there’s too much attention to how warm/cold the E Pacific gets when the W Pacific is the other half of the equation. The warm W Pacific has kept the convection in the MC for the most part since late 2018, MJO in unfavorable phases and supercharged the Pacific jet.
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The meat of the precip with the coastal low on radar looks like it’ll clip SE Mass. and Boston perhaps. The snow associated with the trough west of the low looks like it’ll favor NJ. Guess I got 0.1 or 0.2” with the snow band earlier but it’s melted now. But generally something to make it wintry for an hour and nothing more here. Boston has a good shot at breaking their 4” snow drought, this is the kind of late bloomer system that can develop in a fast pattern like this and they have the longitude to cash in.
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Perma-Nina for 6 years now. The El Niño last winter just added a lot more subtropical juice to it.
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Back up to 36 now and the snow we had melted. Maybe this band can make it interesting again for a half hour. Otherwise that might be it-models still show LI getting middle fingered.
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We'll see, models didn't have this weenie band. But we've seen that signal favoring NJ for the last 24 hours.
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I'm a little higher elevation compared to Rt 110, that helps too. I noticed some small accums around Jericho Tpke, I'm just north and east of 110.
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Nice burst ongoing. Street is wet but colder surfaces are coated.
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Weenie band developing over Nassau over to my area. Bigger flakes again and deck is white.
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Starting to whiten up a bit at the house on grass/roof, some slush on cars.
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Light snow, nothing sticking. Temp 34.
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If we somehow get heavier rates it will drop down to 32/33. But it’s a nowcast situation. We need those heavy echos to keep moving N.
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That stuff off NJ looks mean. Please keep lifting N…
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Hopefully this stuff off NJ keeps lifting north and we cool the column so snow can stick. But models other than the NAM have this as the IVT precip not the developing low. That will probably clip Boston and Cape Cod. Hopefully this can be another situation where the IVT trends NE at the end.
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And it’s the one that other than SREF which uses the crazy NAM as an input and the NAM that models overwhelmingly favor. I hope we get something better but the middle finger zone is most likely.
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That said light snow here in Melville.
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Every other short range model has the CCB precip starting at maybe the twin forks longitude, and this precip off NJ is associated with what IVT develops. It would be an epic bust if they’re wrong this close in. We would need for them to be wrong by 100 miles for it to reach NYC and pray the clueless NAM somehow pulled out a rabbit.
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From your keyboard to God’s eyes.
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If the NAM somehow scores a coup here lol. But I HIGHLY doubt it. I would think other short range models would pick up on something like its showing.
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12z HRRR has pretty much zero outside of NJ, and even they have less than an inch. If you get anything more than flurries from this consider it a win. It’s a late bloomer storm with the fast jet pattern which might be fine for eastern SNE, and we have to watch to see where this IVT sets up.
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Might actually be better in Philly for this vs NYC if the trend is right for the IVT stuff. If I get more than a coating I’ll be thrilled. That CT shaft hole doesn’t want to move.
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Take a couple days off and go to Boston. They’ll probably get a few inches and like you said, you hang out and post in the NE forum more anyway. Maybe put in an application for the Boston PD.
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Other models seem modestly NW but nothing that would bring the CCB in which would mean real accums. NAM is likely headfaking us again. 99% chance that any shot at accums comes with the inverted trough, and that looks better for NJ on the short term modeling than where I am, which is the middle finger zone between that and developing coastal storm. The inverted trough may shift around though or not happen at all. It's really a nowcast with these.
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NAM can't be trusted/followed for anything.
