jm1220

In Feb we tend to see the jet stream start to come back north and more surges of moisture into the colder air. Hopefully we can time one or two correctly.

Looks like it got down to 3 IMBY.

5 here. The calmer winds helped radiate. Looks like 10-11 in the city and on the shore.

Gonna be a cold one. Down to 17 already.

The Palmetto Pulverizer storm?

We can’t keep blaming “bad luck” for why we can’t produce anything during favorable pattern windows. There’s a reason these turd in the punchbowls show up and ruin setups for big storms. The prevalence of all these confluence/kicker etc shortwaves is because the Pacific jet is so chaotic and fast. It also knocks down the big ridges and troughs that can generate the bigger storms, and can push them into bad alignments and locations, ie make them positively tilted.

Pathetic. Wonder how many Gulf coast cities will have more for the season than Central Park in 24-48 hours? Not enough for Memphis and Little Rock of course. Nice event generally and we take, but snow wise this is still one of our lamest winters.

If we can maintain the cold into Feb, we should have some chances as moisture comes back north to attack the cold air. We usually have our better storms when that happens. Amazing the lack of SE ridge this year, maybe that will be good to keep the SWFEs at bay. The Pacific slowing down and flinging less crap towards us that interfere with our bigger threats would be great.

Islip got 2.3". Up to a whopping 4.8" on the season there, still under half of average to date. I probably should be at 10-11" at this point and have 8".

On the low end of expectations generally but a nice event. It was clear yesterday AM that other than the places hit by the 700mb/mid-level band it wouldn't live up to the higher expectations since this was a disorganized system that couldn't really drive in the Atlantic moisture. 3.5-4" around this area, can't complain.

Maybe one last little band developing in NJ. Good for another few tenths?

Light snow, probably not much left. Made it into the 3-5" range predicted anyway.

It'll be close but I think we make it to 4". Hopefully a couple more moderate bursts and improving ratios. This will definitely stick around-it's going to freeze into a brick.

The usual 700mb fronto/convergence band with high ratios set up inland, so even with maybe less liquid those areas will still do better than down here. There's almost always that far NW band that develops and nails someone. Unfortunately it seemed to cause subsidence SE of it and this storm just isn't that organized with a good transport of Atlantic moisture. We have a nice few hours but a better developed CCB would've been much better for everyone. Last night hinted at it possibly then this AM that hope fell apart. But of course it's better than the washout the Canadian had for 2-3 days.

Can't even imagine. They don't have the equipment down there or the experience to deal with an inch of snow much less 6"+. Any amount of snow/ice there pretty much shuts a city down.

Almost 2" now. Really coming down.

HRRR seems to end things between 10-11pm at least mod-heavy accumulating snow. I'll gladly take this as long as it lasts and at this clip I might be able to make it to 4-5" which a few hours ago was doubtful.

Snow really picking up now and bigger flakes.

We’ll drop some more in the next couple hours, it’ll be in the 20s by the time snow ends. Would like to see bigger flakes for better ratios but next few hours will be fun regardless. Ratios are mostly determined by the snow growth in the cloud, you want it -12 to -18C in the snow growth and strong lift. Lousy snow growth initially is why we were dealing with dippin’ dots.

Almost an inch now. More dippin' dots with the snow.

Only time I’ve ever witnessed thunder snow was the 12/30/00 storm. Would be awesome for it to happen here tonight.

I’m only a half inch ahead of you and you should be changing over soon. This batch looks like it’ll swipe the whole island.

Down to 31. Light snow, no more graupel. About a half inch on the table, everything including street covered. That batch in NJ looks awesome, if that can pivot over for a few hours 4” is possible after all.

Looking at DE and E MD that’s probably our chance to really accumulate east of the city when that pivots in. We need that to last a couple hours at least.

We’ll just have to see what happens, I’m not optimistic. The stuff south of us looks rather shredded. Maybe it’ll strengthen later on but the best looks to be NW of us in that main band. Inland wins again. We’ll need a big turnaround to get to the 4” predicted and HRRR has been trending drier over time.