jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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It's 0.25" freezing rain or higher, 6" in 12 hours or 8" in 24 hours. Sleet/snow are counted as the same.
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I'm totally fine with no/limited backdoor fronts season.
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I'm surprised, maybe hedging if the low chance the southern solution like NAM happens.
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After the rain and temps now around 36, just some sloppy slush left. Winter of Fail rolls on!!
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Since this is a more consolidated vort/stronger system overall than today, it will want to trend north unless something to the north like confluence can stop it which we don’t have. If we see more north shifts tonight I would call this one another fail for NYC/coast.
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LOL we’ll see. ISP should have 17.3” by now, they have 4.8”. Maybe they got 0.5” today so that would be 5.3”. We have a shot on Sat PM but 3-5” would be a big win here so I’ll go 2-3” most likely before slop/rain (and not much of a N trend needed until it’s another maybe coating to an inch while SNE/Hudson Valley are the ones happy) that gets them to 7.8”. So they’d need something to deliver them a foot or more next week since this is our prime snow period and what they should have is going up fastest of the winter. Odds are strongly against that. I have 10” with that fell today and I should probably have 20” by now. LGA has done fairly well, maybe they have a shot.
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I’d rather be north of here for this one. RGEM actually went north at 12z and there’s plenty of time for a N bump that tends to happen in SWFEs. The best place to be is probably I-84 corridor to I-90 unless we see a mass S migration on the models. I’d call 3-5” a pretty big win for I-80/NYC/LI. N suburbs likely 6”+.
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Have about 0.5” on the table. Light sleet now. Temp 31-32. I expected this to be fairly lame and it was even lamer than expected. My side street is slushy, main road is wet.
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There would’ve been more snow if the precip came in moderate to heavy to start, it would’ve held off the warming aloft better with more lift. There was also no good overrunning snow swath stretched east into the cold air. These are the rare SWFEs that are good for NYC. Instead we got the shredded up outcome, snow took forever to start and warm air aloft is able to easily overspread the area. Surface temp here is holding steady at 29-30 though so it may be hard to flip to plain rain away from the immediate coast.
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It’s a SWFE, the vast majority of which suck for NYC and places I-80 and south. On Sat PM we get to roll the dice with another one, hopefully that one ends up better.
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29 and light sleet. Basically a coating. Looks like it’s the maybe we make it to 1” outcome.
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Yep, definitely still in the "hope for the best" stage. The ensembles are encouraging that at least we have threats but as usual it could all fall apart. We should get some snow tomorrow and more on Sat PM but beyond that is fragile depending on the development of one or several waves. North of us is the best place to be.
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Some of the hi-res models look like absolute crap until you're well north into New England. Most of this subforum would struggle to get to 1" of whatever. Hopefully that's wrong and something like the HRRR is right. It'll be a nowcast situation.
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22-24 in this area, NWS has my low at 26. I don’t see the onshore flow being strong enough to get us above 32 before the vast majority of precip is over. I think we get some snow but an inch of crud vs 2-3” depends on it coming in like a wall as the HRRR or shredded crap.
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Low to mid 20s around here. I’m sure temps will spike when the flow strengthens off the water but good that we’re radiating well tonight. It won’t help the mid levels but may keep it frozen.
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Yep if the snow waits until the warm air is right on the doorstep obviously amounts will be low. Hopefully we get a nice ribbon of overrunning snow ahead of it.
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For now yes. Have to be wary about the last minute north trend/rug pulls these type of storm often produce and the mid level low tracks which dictate where mid level warm air goes.
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I’ll believe anything like that when it’s actually happening. I guess one thing in our favor is it looks to be quick moving like the rest of our storms. Maybe we can get the fast heavy snow burst and end with some light sleet or drizzle.
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It’ll be a race between the heavier snow rates and the warm nose aloft. If the heavier rates work out, many of us even the city and coast can see 2-3”. If it’s shredded up, the warm air will have an easier time advancing and sleet/rain will mix in earlier. In the shredded up case I doubt many near the coast/city get over an inch. We need strong lift and rates to hold back the warm mid level push. Maybe it can be held off until the precip is almost done.
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I’d use ensembles this far out.
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Like I said when it’s within 72 hours I’ll get excited. The pattern upcoming has potential but we’ve seen plenty of examples of it falling apart. The ensemble agreement is encouraging.
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HRRR looks pretty good on the soundings during the heavier precip near the city/LI. Hopefully it's not too cold. If the precip comes in like a wall/mod to heavy, it has a better chance at being right. If shredded/broken up, warm air will likely take over sooner because of the precip breaks. The "come in like a wall" outcome is the best chance at a surprise 2-3" near the coast, if shredded/broken up we might struggle to make it over 1" and that would likely be sleet.
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We’d definitely want that solid overrunning snow shield to be confident at getting any real accums. The SWFEs where the precip waits and waits until the cold air is gone never work out.
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I agree that with no strong onshore flow and possibility the surface low stays south of LI, there could be a period of icing for northern NYC and north shore. It’ll be hard to get that whole area above 32 without a decently strong onshore wind. Might be another situation like 2 nights ago where it stayed below 30 north of the Northern State but spiked to 36-38 south of the LIE. But it wouldn’t help with snow, it just means more sleet and then ZR.
