jm1220

Light snow, maybe a little graupel still mixed in. Temp 32. Ground other than the street is coated.

It's been trending worse if anything. At this point it is what it is. Hopefully it'll be wrong.

Been that way for 20+ years now since I was an undergrad there 2005-09. UNV is always too far in any direction for the best snow and just too far E and on the downslope side of the Allegheny Ridge. Nickle and dime city. The average per year is higher than places to the SE but it's nails on a chalkboard to get there. Prepare to be annoyed countless more times. Anyway congrats to the S PA crew that are having a good storm. Hilarious that such a top meteorology school is in such a torturous place for snow.

No way, there's been showery precip up until now and even the barrier islands look like they're down to 34. There's just been less and less precip forecast and this band to the west looks more and more dominant so the inland areas will likely win after all. We need this stuff off NJ/DE to be intense for the few hours it's here.

Grauple/light snow, temp down to 33. Some accumulation on colder surfaces. Will start accumulating on pavement soon as the sun goes down.

It's had this enhanced area over the northern 1/2 of the island for the past several runs. Maybe that'll actually happen to some extent. Other than that it's the same concern about the banding west of us causing subsidence. We'll have to go to town when the meat of the coastal system comes through. One good thing is we'll have time to cool down by then.

Light snow-36. Mix of flakes and dippin' dots.

Hoping this E PA/NJ band doesn’t overwhelm everything else that tries to develop to the East, because if that becomes too stout there will be a zone east of it that gets shafted from subsidence. Some of the short range guidance is hinting at it.

I’m a little pessimistic about my home town for this storm which never happens in the winter (lol), they might struggle to get past 2-3” unless they go to town in a band. It’s 40 there now and it always takes forever for the immediate south shore to cool down. Short range models are also hinting at a subsidence zone somewhere east of the enhanced snow area in E PA/NJ. With Long Beach’s luck…

Anyway-36 here and cloudy. Looking forward to all the water outside refreezing with the snow into a brick. The initial snow here will be pasty before the cold hammers down and will all freeze solid. Hope everyone’s stocked up on the salt.

Short range models do show an enhanced area on LI to some extent. Wonder if we’ll get a little help from the Sound via convergence on the northerly flow enhancing the snow.

I’m thinking 3-5” for most and 6-7 where a band can set up. Shoreline where warm air is stubborn maybe 2-3. I wish the models stuck with the wetter 0z look but most backed off to some degree. Just doesn’t look like that organized/dynamic a system. Anyway it’ll be a fun few hours and we’ll definitely have a wintry look this week in the frigid cold.

The HRW models looked good for us in general which is what the HREF's probably based on.

RGEM RGEM RGEM RGEM RGEM RGEM RGEM RGEM. By the way-RGEM!!!!!

My concern for temps is along the coast.

Probably the best looking IMBY of all the guidance. It'll really be a nowcast to see where banding sets up. Since the moisture here is limited there could be a Swiss cheese quality to the snow amounts where the banding areas do well and outside there's subsidence holes. It might fill in somewhat at the coast is more moisture gets involved. But this isn't really one of your more dynamic setups, it's a quickly moving wave along the Arctic front. The storm's speed doesn't help building large amounts either, it's in/out in 6 hours. If your expectation is the 3-5" locally 6" you'll probably be good. If it's for higher warning amounts you might be disappointed. Inland like I said last night might compensate with higher ratios. Hoping temps don't spike too much this afternoon so we waste less on cooling the column.

I'm wondering along the coast how much QPF will be spent cooling the column down for snow to stick as well. It will warm up above freezing before the precip moves in. Inland might end up the best spot to be after all.

The 3-5" locally 6" the NWS has is probably the right call. Models for the most part backed off a bit from 0z and don't have that consolidated CCB look, and HRRR/RAP are pretty dry in general. We'll see if they moisten back up as the storm comes in.

Wondering if Upton pulls the trigger and puts up warnings for the city/LI. Decent chance at least north shore areas make it to 6" based on the data tonight.

GFS looks solid, maybe bumped up amounts a little. Avoid the weenie Kuchera maps. There’ll be places where ratios are above 10-1 but it’s based on temps where the snow growth happen and saturation of the column not just surface.

Where you are the snow will stick right away and probably be powdery-although that doesn’t guarantee good ratios because you need good snow growth. There will likely be 1-2 good bands that get set up inland. The QPF IMBY might be higher but my snow will initially be paste and tougher to stack up. I’m still thinking the immediate south shore/east end might have issues getting the snow to accumulate for a while until the N wind drives the cold air down.

You'll have better ratios to make up for the lower QPF.

RAP looks really good too.

Hopefully we clear out so we drop as much as we can but yeah we’re on track.

Certainly doesn’t feel like we’re about to get snow. Foggy and 42.