jm1220

I think he meant for winter patterns.

There's definitely still strong winds in the back half of it, but I wonder if there's any kind of "eyewall" left to really bring the winds down. I remember the second half of Irene which was eaten away from dry air still having some strong wind but it not lasting long, and the sun being out with 50-60mph wind still. Apparently the same happened with Gloria up here.

Any info on the surge impacts?

I think we have quite a ways to go before even a cold airmass and good storm track means mix or rain still for most.

Could be a very nice rain event if we get the slug of moisture left from Delta along with focusing from a frontal boundary nearby. NAM has been pretty insistent on up to 4" of rain near that boundary over a fairly prolonged period. Hopefully it can extend N into New England where there's a severe drought.

The models last night were also showing a pretty hostile environment for it to move into-lots of dry air, increasing shear and cooler water. There was a Brownsville sounding another poster showed that already had increasing shear heading into the storm last night. Might end up a cat 1 by landfall. That’s NOT to say it won’t be very impactful still.

I’m seeing 12-13 pop up as an analog in some places and it would be fine for me. Where I am now probably had close to 2 feet from the 2/8-9 event.

Radar from what I see is going half-acane which means dry air is intruding into the core. It’s probably a cat 2 now.

100-105mph at landfall would be my guess.

Laura and Michael both had 29-30°C SSTs right up to the shoreline. Michael's VWS decreased the closer it got to he coast. Laura's increased too late, essentially just after landfall, and wasn't able to disrupt its core. Delta's VWS should be infringing at least 6-9 hours prior to landfall. Some modeling even slows down Delta's forward motion near landfall which could allow shear and cooler SSTs to disrupt the core even further. That being said, Delta's circulation is going to be large and the surge impact will already have been attained regardless if it's falling apart at landfall. Yep, again lucky that surge should mostly hit low populated areas (of course some will still be affected for sure, hope they’re out).

They broke the pattern that’s typical for northern Gulf hurricanes.

Models show quite a bit of dry air entrainment and some shear in addition to the cooler waters as it comes in, so it likely peaks overnight and then starts dealing with these factors. The dry air will erode the south side pretty fast and lead to the half-a-cane. We’ll see though if this can break the pattern of many northern Gulf landfalls that go half-a-cane like Laura and Michael. And yes very fortunate there isn’t a city East of Cameron for quite a ways on the shore, just a huge preserve with some small towns (which will get hit hard again unfortunately). For sure New Orleans/Houston have dodged bullets.

If I had to pick a spot to be for this, it would definitely be just south of Roanoke, down I-81 to Bristol and the W NC mountains. You guys should get buried around there. Enjoy!

I would track the 700/850mb lows on the models-where they go determines who mixes and dryslots. If the 850mb low goes over or north of you, expect a significant period of sleet. And mid level warming is often underestimated by models-I would take the warmest mid level forecast and go with that. Surface level warming can be overestimated, so that may set up a nasty area of ZR. Something we get burned with plenty of times up here too. Good luck down there as I may spot a cirrus cloud or two from this later today. Just maybe. Usually these suppressed pieces of crap at least get some cirrus up here.

The stronger than average SE Ridge will eventually burn us near the coast and force tracks inland. We’ve been on a good run without much blocking but it can’t last forever.

Lee Goldberg has 1-3" for NYC and most coastal areas (less than 1" far eastern LI, south Jersey Shore). Mentioned colder conditions on Fri than some models are showing. But honestly, good luck to anyone who has to make a snow forecast right now. Could be 1" in the city if the CCB is crap and we don't cool down, to half a foot or more if it really goes off.

TWC looks to go on the GFS output which as we know is the warmest of any model.

Nina years are always concerning here. Ninas keep the SE Ridge strong as well as the Pacific Jet. We could have an 07-08 winter with tons of SWFE events that nail I-90, or one with tons of Lakes cutters. If we can get a few periods of blocking, it could be another blockbuster like 10-11. Could really go either way. If it's not roaring into a strong Nina, our odds are probably better.

I ended up with about a foot. A ton was wasted on the front end with sleet and rain in Long Beach. We had almost as much liquid as areas east of us.

Believe it or not State College's snow average is in the mid 40s, but since the recent shift to big offshore and late developing coastal storms from NJ on NE, that area's been left high and dry. Clippers usually do okay there, since it's close enough to the Allegheny spine to still get some decent snow before downsloping really shafts the Susquehanna Valley. But transferring Miller B-type systems often do little there since the moisture and lift shifts to the coast, it's often too warm for systems that hit the I-90 corridor hard, lake cutters often just bring a lot of sleet or ZR before rain, and lake effect is usually just flurries other than being very lucky with a long running band (happened a couple of times when I was there with a few inches of surprise snow). In the 1990s, coast hugging miller A's were more common, which are what does bury central PA, but those never happen anymore. March 1993's monster was over 2 feet there, as was a similar storm in March 1994. It was very frustrating being there as a snow weenie, for sure. And I remember having numerous close calls and good setups that ended up producing little. One of these years the pattern will shift back to producing again back there, but it's undeniable that there's been a shift away from the types of snowstorms that can hit central PA really hard.

Nice towers up this evening east of Austin-towards Bastrop. Radar indicates a small patch of 2" of rain there.

It was pretty much a bust for I-35, as I suspected it would be last night when the boundary was pushed way SE of where models had it by the MCV that rolled through yesterday afternoon. Some places SE of San Antonio did get 6"+ of rain, mainly in low populated areas.

10" this month, 1.6" today where I am. Camp Mabry's August all time record is about 9.6", so that's already beaten a few miles south of there. Models are firing the rain back up over I-35 overnight, but for now the main heavy rain axis was shunted pretty far SE by the MCV that came through the area this afternoon. That will have to start to shift back north pretty soon for the models to verify. Pretty sure the models are busting on the SE extent of the heavy rain-it's making inroads towards the Corpus Christi area now when most models had SE TX largely dry. If the rain stalls out there instead, I doubt we see much more in the Austin/San Antonio areas-the moisture will all be used up there.

It's looking like there could be some serious flooding from this area south through San Antonio and west. NWS is projecting up to 15" of rain in spots, which would cause major flooding considering all the rain we've had in the last 4-5 days. The latest models are starting to focus on the Austin area and just south/west. This might become a very dangerous event if we get training heavy rain/storms overnight.

Euro has another 4"+ of rain coming later this weekend especially I-35 and west with locally 7" in the western Hill Country. I think Camp Mabry needs 3.5" or so to make this the wettest August on record. I ended up with about 8.5" from the latest system that is finally gone. For LA, rain looks to be lighter, 1-3", but obviously any rain is unwelcome there (or here at this point-some creeks around Austin had flooding at times in the last few days).