jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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New HRRR has snow on the N Shore, SW CT and Westchester. Here I doubt anything would accumulate but it’s a dynamic enough setup that there could be a burst at some point.
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Mt Pocono down to 32 with this more intense snow coming in. Should be a fun night there.
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I have about 1.1” now, hopefully another 0.9+ to make it over 2”.
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The beginnings of this deformation axis are starting now over NJ and will expand NE over time. 18z HRRR has 1-2” more precip especially I-80 and N. It could be quite heavy for a while especially northern areas.
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If this is the place in Worcester, I was there for dinner/drinks after a work event about a month ago (once in a while I travel to Marlborough). Fun spot!
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Maybe flakes in the air. Have to remember too that some of this precip might dry out as it comes in since it’s coming from a downslope direction.
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It’ll be a stormy pattern which should relieve the drought, that’s about all we can take away at this point. Hopefully the western ridge and Aleutian ridge pointed near the pole work out, that would at least supply cold air.
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After the main slug of rain overnight here I’d just expect unsettled showers around NYC, some of that hopefully will be snow showers. Agreed about the NW downslope killing off a lot of the deformation axis precip. Tomorrow will be a nasty raw day.
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I’d be thrilled if there is a burst of flurries/light snow at the end here or during heavier showers under the ULL. Looks very dynamic so it could happen, but if you’re expecting significant accums and living in a valley you’ll likely be disappointed. Over 1000’ though will probably get over 6” and locally 10”. That deformation band SW of the low center will go to town for a while. Best potential area looks to be around Mt Pocono.
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It won’t be 10-1, probably more like 7-1 ratio. But a very nice event in higher elevations regardless.
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I wish the LI Sound wasn’t still a billion degrees. Can someone send some dump trucks full of ice there?
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That deformation axis under the ULL looks like the real deal. Might be a good blue bomb snow for the Catskills, even Orange County. Of course whatever rain we can get is more than welcome. Hopefully a sign of stormier times ahead.
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There should be a juiced deformation axis somewhere that gets 2-3”+ where it pivots around. In higher elevations that is probably snow. Desperately needed for sure.
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Maybe one positive for the winter would be if we can get that Aleutian ridge as close to the pole as possible.
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Warmer up here. Too much wind from the Sound.
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If we get shut out in December, it will be an awful winter. Always happens that way. We need some kind of Part 1 in any snowy Nina winter here, then usually we get a Part 2 that’s snowier in Feb/March. Doesn’t have to be much in December, one warning type storm will do but there has to be something.
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Wow, predicting normal snow around 30” for NYC. I’ll gladly eat my socks if that happens.
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The source region for these "cold" shots is still Pacific origin, since we can't get a sustained ridge in the West to build up then deliver cold from Canada. It's somewhat modified Pacific air. Any attempt at a ridge gets blasted away by the raging Pacific jet developed from the boiling SSTs east of Japan. Rinse (or not since we're all in a drought aided by said pattern) repeat.
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Models over the last 24 hours have been getting less impressed, HRRR now has most of us at about 0.2”. Might end up being just a lot of virga with most of us just having the ground wet for a couple hours.
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Maybe we'll be rain weenies this winter for a random half inch that'll come by.
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33 here.
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Have to watch that SE ridge position and steepness. We live in a world now where if the NAO block is too south based it can link up with the SE ridge.
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Hopefully we officially get 19.3 flakes this winter.
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The Pacific changing back to a less hostile state should be enough to ramp the averages back up, not to the high bonanza period of the 2010s but we should be able to cash in once in a while with offshore coastal lows and cold enough air. The West certainly can, so we should too. The overall pattern is just way too hostile and has to change. But we’re just stuck with this garbage N PAC SST anomaly state blasting us with puke.
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Yep, I don’t see any savior coming like a massive NAO block in 20-21 to salvage a decent season. I think we’re largely screwed other than when we can get a lucky couple day period here and there and it can snow. The Pacific as you said is as hostile as can be. That boiling water east of Japan supercharges the Pacific jet and blowtorches the whole continent.
