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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    It’s drying up on radar and consolidating south over NJ. The flurries are nice but our accums are done.
  2. jm1220
    GFS is likely at the left goalpost with its aggressive fully phased solution and its on the left end of the GEFS but the blocking to the N/kicker to the west will have to do work to prevent a hugger with an outcome like that. If we really have a low riding almost due N ending up over Fire Island, that’s an inland favored outcome like 3/14/17. But at some point those factors pushing it east will take over and boot it out. Hopefully that would happen near the Delmarva and not Fire Island. Other models are much further east obviously but this seems like an all or nothing type outcome where we either have a phased bomb or unimpressive slider out to sea. It’s more likely of course we don’t have the coastal hugger but can’t say it’s not a possibility.
  3. jm1220
    We're not at that point that we know it'll phase.
  4. jm1220
    Agree, let’s see if other models come on board. Still days away from locking into anything.
  5. jm1220
    Honestly if this full phase does happen we’ll be rooting on whatever kicker comes behind and hoping it gets shoved east in time to keep it from flip many of us to rain.
  6. jm1220
    Yup, I had about 15” last winter. Putrid but just off the bottom-most of the barrel 2022-23.
  7. jm1220
    Another reason I haven’t watched them in years.
  8. jm1220
    I will say we did better than I thought, that 700mb fronto area survived coming east of PA rather than get crushed ESE which is what models had. 0.5” ain’t saying much but better than 0 and it does look nice/wintry outside for a change which it should here on 1/6 when it’s cold enough.
  9. jm1220
    Wow, out by Riverhead getting crushed.
  10. jm1220
    DC is just a snow hole in general. I’d hate to live there and expect a snowier outcome. And there’s always that weenie 700mb fronto area that likes to set up north of where models have. Even helped us to a small extent.
  11. jm1220
    Indeed, central PA did very well. State College might end up with 6”, I think they were supposed to get 2-3”.
  12. jm1220
    They aren’t done there yet, the ULL will probably add 1-3” more.
  13. jm1220
    Nice burst a little while ago, still light snow with some larger flakes. About 0.5” on the tabletop.
  14. jm1220
    Central PA did quite well, better than expected from the 700mb fronto snow. State College has about 5”. Dusting/coating on colder surfaces, pavements starting to cave. Maybe with some heavier bursts I can get to 0.5”.
  15. jm1220
    Really hoping it happens obviously. GFS is often toned down with these if anything and it’s showing crushing 3-4”/hr rates as it bombs off the Delmarva.
  16. jm1220
    I’m wary of that kicker trough right on its heels, although if it really does full phase like the GFS, that kicker might save it being a quick changeover to rain hugger. It seems to get to a certain latitude then get booted east.
  17. jm1220
    Maybe a brief window of light to moderate based on radar coming out of the city.
  18. jm1220
    Light snow. Colder surfaces beginning to whiten.
  19. jm1220
    That would be….. nice.
  20. jm1220
    I have to think we get something in the end but the fast Pacific pattern might ruin it again. Once we go back to cutters and SE ridge, that obviously shuts off our chances. There always seems to be something wrong or off with every setup we get even in a colder regime and no, that can’t all just be bad luck. It seems to be the northern stream and fast Pacific just flinging crap to interfere with anything trying to dig and setup, and moving things along too fast.
  21. jm1220
    We’ll see. Maybe we can get a brief coating type event today around the city/I-80/LI.
  22. jm1220
    If you were to tell me that by 1/10 in a Nina winter that DC would have the most snow of the major NE metros I would crack up.
  23. jm1220
    More turds in the punchbowl for us having any kind of threat? Say it ain’t so!
  24. jm1220
    Totally agree. Get this useless dry cold out of here. Bare ground in winter is at least more tolerable with bearable conditions outside. Otherwise it’s just misery.
  25. jm1220
    The problem is more confluence (sinking air) vs dry air.
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