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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    Maybe I’m misjudging but seems like it’s having a really tough time organizing a central CDO, looks ragged and like it can’t wrap completely around. Might be the dry air issue or something else.
  2. jm1220
    Would be great if N FL can catch a break and this can’t get its act together so it comes in like a Francine or Idalia rather than an Ida/Laura. The larger size means a large surge but maybe the fast movement can reduce that a little, and the area it’s coming in is generally sparsely populated (even though it’s been hammered the last 2 seasons). Of course the inland fresh water flooding will be a big problem regardless.
  3. jm1220
    Felt one drop of water fall outside 5 minutes ago. When I came in just now, could swear I felt another one!
  4. jm1220
    The interaction with the upper level low probably keeps it stronger further inland. I would assume it helps ventilate it and brings jet stream energy in to help maintain it.
  5. jm1220
    Very often it seems these major Gulf storms have a “Part 2” somewhere that has huge flooding from heavy rain. This one looks likely to, Ida was over the NYC metro area, Camille was over VA, Opal was over GA etc. The preceding heavy rains inland this time will certainly make matters worse for the main event. Hopefully people inland are preparing.
  6. jm1220
    Central Park 14" JFK: 11" Islip: 17" Newark: 15" White Plains: 22" Newburgh: 29" Bridgeport: 20" My backyard 18" Well below normal again in a never ending Perma-Nina/MJO 4-6 stretch but hopefully we can buy a half decent period or two when the Pacific jet can relax, we get cold air for more than a day or two or we get lucky with a coastal storm on an offshore track like in Feb this year. Maybe one will be a SWFE type event where it's snow to rain which isn't ideal but it counts. Once you're along I-90 Ninas like these can be just fine especially if we get some cold high pressures that put up resistance to the train of cutters, and north of there well above normal.
  7. jm1220
    They definitely need it in the OH Valley, extreme drought in some of those places.
  8. jm1220
    Typical cut and paste Nina map. But of course it hasn’t been wrong the last nearly 10 winters, the N Plains and Rockies are the place that has remained cold and rest of the country warm.
  9. jm1220
    Straight west to east flow off the Pacific means maybe we’d get a colder rain if a storm could even form since the flow is so fast. No cold air source.
  10. jm1220
    Ran the sprinklers for quite a while last evening, lawns are still turning brown all over.
  11. jm1220
    Most of the models at least had some decent rain in SE MA. Looks like little to nothing even there.
  12. jm1220
    Yup, rain shrinking away. Maybe the twin forks can salvage something.
  13. jm1220
    Time to take that model out behind the woodshed, seriously
  14. jm1220
    Most of the time what’s good for you snow/cold wise is bad for us and vice versa. Nina/fast pacific jet regimes which are lousy here and putrid from Philly south are some of your best patterns while El Niño dominated STJ with some cold at the right time are our best. For New England some of the endless cutter events in Nina become SWFEs especially in a season like 07-08 and are perfectly fine or even very snowy before 15 minutes of rain at the end but here it’s rain with 15 minutes of sleet at the start. “Gradient” patterns 95% of the time set up north of me. So I would root on a Nino any day over Nina. Maybe the AMO settling down will help tamp down the SE ridge, but I agree we need large scale changes we’re not likely getting this winter to consistently get snow events again south of my latitude and this far east. That boiling warm water tongue of death E of Japan has to go away or be muted somehow.
  15. jm1220
    A lighter rain event would be ideal. We don’t need another 6”+ deluge that would cause more flash flooding. Parts of Stony Brook University are still closed from the last one.
  16. jm1220
    If we have the big high pressure to our north, I doubt we get much. We’ve seen time and again waves of rain or snow get eaten up in confluence as they try to make it to our latitude. The high has to weaken and flow in the mid levels turn to southerly. If it comes from a dry direction confluence will just eat up the rain.
  17. jm1220
    Noticed lawns browning yesterday in the same places that got 10”+. Insane.
  18. jm1220
    Unless we can get 95 degree water in a better place for us. But until this SST configuration in the Pacific changes we’re left with hoping for mismatch few week periods like in 2020-21. Maybe the AMO change can make the SE ridge less obscene.
  19. jm1220
    If we have a pattern like that in a Nina winter where we’re not screaming every low into the Lakes or New England I’d consider that a win.
  20. jm1220
    So many ways for us to get soaked here. Especially in the last 10-15 years when the storms that come drop more moisture and we have these stuck patterns.
  21. jm1220
    Right, it’s a dry spell for some (definitely not here and east of here that got drowned a few weeks ago). There are so many ways we get deluged these days that the rain will be back soon. That being said the ridge will likely have to weaken significantly and confluence weaken before much if any rain makes it here.
  22. jm1220
    1/15 was my date to bail, and usually is in a decent Nino. Since they’re usually backloaded you wait to see if things turn around, but it was clear by then it would be the same Nina mid latitude pattern just with more STJ influence and rain. The W PAC forcing has to end or be overcome somehow before we meaningfully change.
  23. jm1220
    Highs in the mid 90s here in the summer isn’t that atypical. What’s becoming more common are the high dews that come with it. Way more days now than 20 years ago with 75+ dew points. @bluewave has posted data on this in the past. Sunday might be our next day with dews near 75.
  24. jm1220
    Yep, mostly clear here now.
  25. jm1220
    Light rain. Heavier in SW Nassau, locally 1-2” in Long Beach/Rockaways.
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