jm1220

The snowpack that season (10-11) was amazing. N of Sunrise Highway had a 2 foot pack for weeks. The 1/12/11 storm was good in Long Beach, I think there was 8-10” but parts of Suffolk had much more.

We definitely had the subtropical jet last winter. We had a record rainiest Dec-Feb. But the northern stream acted very much Nina with the fast Pacific flow continuing and we couldn't access any cold air when needed. We had one window in Feb when there was some cold air which is when we had most of our snow.

Oh I totally get it. Something has to happen for these weeks of it being cold enough for snow lol.

Such a fragile setup. Agreed that we need a few days to really understand how it all interacts. We need the big phase to have a shot at a significant storm, then next question is how/where.

2010-11 was the second best winter of my life behind 1995-96. That period between 12/25-2/1 was absolutely epic and will likely never be matched again.

In 03-04 NYC did better than Boston by an inch or two if not mistaken. That’s really the last winter I can think of where like you said, I-80 was hit pretty good by a few storms. We had the bitter cold Jan clipper with heavy snow in single digits and a nice 8-12” type event in late Jan that both missed Boston. NYC seems to do better than Boston maybe 2-3x per decade. 2015-16 NYC did better, and 2020-21 was tied.

El Niño probably has the best chance of it since you want to time the charged up STJ with cold enough air. PDII in 2003 was an El Niño storm that nailed all 4 metros. Jan 2016 was another that was very close to. You want a big STJ infusion into a deep cold air dome for a massive overrunning event, and some suppressive confluence but not overpowering like today’s. Or a fluke coastal storm like some in Feb 1996 that tracked in a way that hit all 4 metros. But generally we have the good New England patterns and good Mid Atlantic. This upcoming storm was fairly easy to call 4 days out as one that would favor DC-this is a bread and butter setup for them. Boston has their bread and butter setups like Jan 2022 or Jan-Feb 2015. We don’t have an easy to call from days out setup for snow for NYC since we’re at the transition zone between New England and Mid Atlantic. NYC I think by far is the hardest to forecast for in winter storms generally because we always have to edge our way into any major storm. I can’t think of the last one that wasn’t some kind of nail biter. 2/1/21 might be one that was easier to call as a hit for us.

March 2019 wasn’t too bad for the North Shore and northern NYC-had some marginal events that were rain on the south shore. Couldn’t make up for the disaster of the rest of that winter. I think half of the south shore’s snow that winter came in the freak Nov 2018 event. Everything else either suppressed or cutter/SWFE.

Where I live now got absolutely crushed in that event, probably 18”. Long Beach had 10-11”.

The snowblower continues to collect dust faster than any snow outside!

Say it ain’t so.

There’s a thread to talk about tomorrow’s storm.

You and any NW posters certainly. I had maybe 3" that turned to heavy rain and by the end it was gone. It's one of the most infuriating storms I lived through since there was hope even 24 hours out that east of NYC could salvage something but it ticked NW at the very end. So no, that's not something I want happening again lol.

My concern is that the models that do phase seem to blow it up too far west and cause it to hug the coast and it ends up another 3/14/17. We want it a little more progressive so that the phase and trough are 75-100 miles further east. The non-phased ones are maybe a period of light snow as it gets booted out to sea. The 6z GFS would be the worst imaginable kick in the balls east of NYC-too far north for tomorrow's event to a hugger mostly rain.

When you see that ESE truncation to the snow coming out of PA, that's exactly what's happening because the confluence and sinking air is pressing in from the NE. Notice how the snow is moving W to E until it hits central PA. then the confluence presses down and forces it ESE. That's exactly what happens with these-happened in 2/6/10, 1/3/22, a couple of storms in Mar 2014 that hit DC and dried up trying to reach us, Jan 2019-forget the date. Another outcome of that is usually the N gradient is sharper than models show since so much of what tries to advance N ends up as virga.

The fast pattern means we need the phase or the trough and whole setup will be kicked out to sea. Note how positively tilted the non-phase models are like the GFS, and trough right behind it acting as a kicker. And if we have the phase it needs to be in a good spot, otherwise we run the risk of the coastal hugger and snow to rain near the coast. 6z GFS has a 972 just south of Fire Island, which would make for an outcome like 3/14/17 that was a washout east of the city. Maybe in this case the fast pattern and kicker would help nudge everything east.

We're still many years or decades away from CC being the primary driver destroying snow threats. The patterns matter much more. When DC to Richmond and down to Ocean City MD have perfect tracks, "cold" pattern for then and no snow is when I'd worry. DC has lowered their snow average over the last 20 years and ours went up largely because the patterns/storm evolutions have been a lot more favorable from 2000-18 for this area through much of New England with more Miller B type storms. Since late 2018 we're seeing serious regression which we're due for and the pattern shift to very fast Pacific flow that our area is almost uniquely situated for the worst outcomes-too suppressed like tomorrow, late bloomer which hits Boston, or SWFE/cutter. What CC is likely doing is creating these long lasting marine heatwaves that then alter the patterns-the MJO constantly being in phase 4-6 (doesn't seem to be the case this winter) and essentially permanent Nina effects because of the boiling W PAC that then charges up the Pacific jet, likely has something to do with CC.

If I'm not mistaken, @donsutherland1 and @bluewave I'm sure have defined stats, NYC doesn't want a +AO for major snow threats. The late Jan 2022 storm happened during a +AO which allowed it to escape just east enough to keep the heaviest snow over LI and eastern SNE. There seems to be a defined -AO range between -1 and -2.5 where NYC's major storms happen. Too low like we have now and the threat goes up for too suppressed like tomorrow's. But I'd think the timeframe where the pattern shifts is where we can finally make something happen here.

I've asked a few times and no one can really answer-where has he been wrong? Is he more wrong than the weenie mets and others like BAMwx everyone likes to repost that call for blizzards and cold all the time? His style is irritating but he's right much more often than wrong. Maybe he missed the cold period for the first half of this month? Although it's not really cold-not true arctic origin, just below average for this time of year and cold enough for snow which we're of course missing out on and what most here care about.

It's interesting to me in the sense it'll be a significant storm for someone, but frustrating of course that the vast majority of us in this subforum will miss out on it and have to punt to the next one. DC to Baltimore and Dover DE are in the best spot and have been for days. The nailbiter area is Philly to AC because the confluence is pressing down as it approaches them. Other than a few outlier runs over 60 hours it hasn't been very suspenseful here. Walt of course is a met along with others that analyze these for a living, so of course they check back in.

Without the phase the trough is positively tilted and would head out to sea. There's a kicker trough right behind it too.

Philly gets under 1". For the last last time, put this one to bed guys.

Haven’t watched The Weather Channel in years. It’s a joke.

I guess we’ll see what happens, expect a lousy outcome and be happy if it surprises to the upside. It’s still possible the confluence wave to our north could weaken or move a little out of the way and the storm could be stronger but I see that really benefitting Philly to maybe Trenton. We need too much to happen around NYC for anything really interesting.

Hope you’re right! A good surprise is always welcome. Thanks as always.