jm1220

I guess we’ll see what happens, expect a lousy outcome and be happy if it surprises to the upside. It’s still possible the confluence wave to our north could weaken or move a little out of the way and the storm could be stronger but I see that really benefitting Philly to maybe Trenton. We need too much to happen around NYC for anything really interesting.

Hope you’re right! A good surprise is always welcome. Thanks as always.

HRRR can be too amped at long range. It’s not useful for probably another 18 hours.

Car topper/coating. The south shore may get 0.5-1”. I guess something is better than nothing but nothing is very possible too if the dry air is underestimated which happens frequently.

I’m sure it’ll be all over social media all day.

When you accept this setup just wasn’t favorable for bringing anything N of Philly, it sucks but you accept it. Nothing any of us can do. It was clear 48-60 hours ago this was likely to be suppressed to crap. We average more than south of Philly and at some point we’ll likely get something. Unless this winter goes straight to -PNA/+NAO and endless cutters which is always possible.

That was a fun one in Long Beach. Whiteout for several hours.

For a coating to an inch maybe if these northern models are right, and even that would be a stretch? Nope.

The northern edge will likely be sharp because of any lighter stuff being eaten in dry/sinking air. It’ll probably go from less than an inch to 6” within 20-30 miles where heavy banding can reach. Maybe toward the end if this coastal redevelopment is real some people further north to maybe the south shore of LI and around I-78 can get a quick car topper or coating but the fundamentals of why this is screwing us over aren’t changing even if the last minute north bumps happen. That’s good for Philly over to around Toms River. And if you believe models like the RGEM, even Philly to AC don’t get much and DC is on the northern end of the heavy amounts.

I’ll just have to laugh if Dallas to Austin go well ahead of Central Park for snow by 1/15. In W TX it’s not so rare especially in the panhandle.

Blocking when it’s this strong can suppress everything. There’s bad timing with this PV lobe but strong blocking makes this bad luck more likely. DC needs a setup like this not us.

Has a chance if all the energy doesn't get strung out to the SW. If more of that can be consolidated and move east we can make something happen.

Really not much suspense with this one other than a couple outlier runs. Looked like your typical confluence screw job setup that favors DC to AC for the last 48 hours. There were ways we could’ve gotten the storm to trend north with the confluence relaxing or S/W strengthening but that PV lobe showing up and refusing to yield over S Quebec sealed it. I guess Philly is the real question mark now, odds are it does come N a little at the very end and they should get into it but the confluence hammer might keep pressing south.

Zzzzzz……

I guess the pain will be less since the heavy snow band will be 75-100 miles away vs 20. Our chance will come when the pattern changes and blocking relaxes. This should be a lesson forever that blocking patterns aren’t always good for us. It’s really around the DC area that needs it. Here it’s helpful but we get hit more often when it relaxes and often like now hurts.

Based on that even I-195 might not even see much, might need to be in Philly to AC and on SW. For any miracle outcome I’d want to see big moves to it tonight since the major pieces should be sampled now.

You can also see the source region for this "arctic" air, it's essentially maritime air recycled around the huge upper low. Cold enough for snow certainly but we don't have a connection to the pole.

The strong PV lobe just N of Vermont needs to leave or weaken significantly. It's a great run for DC over to ACY but sucks north of there because that PV lobe presses the confluence hammer down just as our storm approaches. As long as that's there anywhere near that strong we're screwed up here. Period.

Tough call there. I’d probably expect a couple or few inches. More clear cut around ACY, north of there becomes more iffy based on minor shifts.

Something else that’s just about gone extinct is the direct shot of Arctic cold from the north which gives us some of our coldest readings like in early Feb 2016. Now our “Arctic” blasts come in from the west and get significantly modified.

In 18-19 if not mistaken DC was above average because of the Jan 2019 event, and when the pattern relaxed in March the northern suburbs got their storms (I did OK on the N Shore). Horrendous winter for southern NYC/LI-too far N for the suppressed crap storms, too far S when the pattern relaxed. That’s the winter that started this raging Pacific spraying crap all over the place era, so wouldn’t be surprised at all for it happening again.

Situation hasn’t changed from 24 hours ago. And now we have 24 hours less for the changes needed which are substantial not a few minor tweaks. I don’t think most of us care about a car topper or coating that’s gone in a few hours.

It fringes ACY with any good snow which is I guess better than 6z. All you need to know. Minor improvements here and there aren’t enough north of Trenton to Belmar.

By South Jersey I consider it south of I-195, Central Jersey I guess would be between there and I-78.

Models often overestimate the northern extent of snow when we’re dealing with so much confluence/dry air. The radar will show wave after wave of it get eaten which is what I remember from that 1/3/22 storm, the Jan 2019 storm and 2/6/10. There likely won’t be a large area of 1-2” like this, it goes from a very small amount to warning snow quickly in that northernmost fronto/death band. The 1-2” area shown is likely just virga.