jm1220

With this being a Nina and fast Pacific jet like we’ve pretty much had since late 2018 nonstop, once the blocking relaxes it might just go back to cutters or SWFE that favor New England. Our hope is that in the transition something can sneak in and get us. This pattern is tailor made to screw us. The fast pattern allows for suppressed threats or cutters but seemingly not ones for us. Makes you appreciate 2020-21 even more when somehow we got some threats to work.

2 below average temp months and below normal snow, while south of us cleans up. If that’s not a kick in the teeth for a snow weenie not sure what is.

I’m giving this one less than 10% for anything more than a car topper for NYC/LI/I-80 corridor. We need sustained N trends on all the major modeling today as the shortwave finally gets sampled. That’s the one last hope I think we have.

The deeper/stronger S/W solutions are also the slower ones, so it's probably a double benefit in the stronger WAA push and the confluence having more time to exit. CMC/UK look a lot weaker and more progressive with it. So maybe when the S/W comes onshore tomorrow we'll finally have better consensus. The UK fringing BWI for crying out loud wasn't what I wanted.

They usually edge into these type of events so I agree there. Bottom line is the confluence has to get out of the way at least a decent bit for us to have a shot. A stronger S/W will help but strong enough confluence will just start to shred it up since it's running into a massive upper low to our NE and dry air. The slower evolution probably helps too since it gives time for the PV lobe and therefore confluence to pivot away.

Unfortunately GGEM looks like suppressed crap. Looks south of 12z.

Another good step in the right direction. The storm slowing down helps too, maybe the confluence has more time to weaken. The deeper trend is definitely what we want to see.

1.5pt favorites last I saw. Brilliant game, ND will be a tough opponent. Unfortunately for us Franklin is known to choke in big game situations but here’s his huge chance to break that curse.

If the confluence weakens we’ll continue to see ticks north. We have to see this trend continue tonight/tomorrow.

Without significant changes and unless models other than the Icon jump on board.

Good step in the right direction.

If other models tonight like the Euro get on board, I’ll buy that something might happen here (meaning I-80 corridor/latitude). If not this run is likely a tease.

Yes those two (first two).

Probably a tease until other models jump on.

Not that difficult a call here unfortunately without significant changes. There’s still time but we really need to see it soon-a big weakening trend in the confluence or stronger S/W that can nudge it north. These relatively minor changes won’t do it. We’ve seen this show before in 2022, 2019 etc.

This is where I say I’m fine with it being warm again then. Dry cold here while we watch DC and VA rack up snow events-get that out of here.

Probably a really nice stretch coming up for BWI-ACY, maybe 15” in those areas by the time Monday’s done. While some places in SNE have 1” or less.

If we have strong enough confluence and northerly flow in the mid levels to our north driving in dry mid level air, it doesn’t matter how officially negative the NAO is. We have a strong 50-50 low and PV lobe to our north which have to weaken or move out of the way or we get zilch. A stronger S/W will help but that will be weakening as well as it moves east into the shredder created by the big upper low to our NE. That’s what causes the ESE leaning precip shield, that’s how you can tell confluence and dry air are crushing it and weakening the S/W.

Not totally given up but I wouldn’t play the odds on this one for sure.

Best to hope for the 10% chance that we see those changes but accept the 90% chance we just have clouds/flurries while DC to Philly clean up. Much as it sucks, not much will happen here until this suppress-to-crap blocking pattern clears up, and then we have to hope there’s a window where we can score before we go back to the regular cutters pattern.

I’m about done with this one unless we see substantial changes. Trenton to Belmar on south are probably good for at least 1-3”. The confluence has to weaken significantly for much to get north of that line. Otherwise it will keep getting shunted/crushed ESE like models are mostly showing. And they often don’t account enough for the dry air to be overcome, so those models showing 1-2” in NYC might just be showing virga or very light snow reaching the ground. The N edge of these confluence deals are always sharp, there won’t be a gradual end to the snow. Where the upper flow becomes westerly or northerly around the PV lobe/50-50 low the snow will abruptly shut off. The storm can be as moist laden as it wants, it needs the southerly upper air flow to get here.

That ESE precip lean tells the story. Need the confluence out of the way.

Fingers crossed but we’ll see. If there’s the confluence brick wall it won’t matter how much moisture this storm brings. If the upper air flow over us is from the W or N, it will get shunted away. 2/6/10 also had a lot of moisture in a strong El Niño. NYC had flurries to 2”, PHL had 2 feet. These confluence setups always drop the immovable brick wall somewhere. We need to see it let up or the S/W notably strengthen and nudge the confluence N to have a chance.

I want to see more pronounced bumps N for me to really jump in for this threat at least along I-80 which includes NYC/LI. The northern edge of these are sometimes overdone because dry air will eat at the precip as it tries to come north. So I really want to see some of these models get good snow into the Hudson Valley and CT. And if the models start to back away that’s obviously bad too. The wave will also likely be weakening as it comes east and battles the 50-50 low and confluence. I think it’s still less than 50% chance our subforum sees anything decent, and in actuality probably nothing given the N edge will likely be sharp because of the dry air issues.

The confluence is weakening on this run and S/W is strengthening, that's why it bumped north. Hopefully the trend keeps up.