jm1220

Yep, snow finally advancing east. Hopefully has some staying power.

Boston up to 5.2". Philly airport has 0.1" but I think the north side of town had 1-2". E PA north of Philly has 2-4". Trenton has 2.3".

Our window of opportunity east of the city looks to be from around 5-7am. It'll be cold enough so what we do get will stick. HRRR seems to regenerate some of the snow as the trough pulls east.

Radar making the slightest of moves east but echos look pathetic. I just want this out of here at this point so we can move on to the next round of wasted 3 day cold. Maybe I’ll wake up to a coating.

Nice. Enjoy! Hopefully you can gain enough for a white Christmas.

And it was well forecast. That NJ second snow area was apparent 24+ hours ago. Can’t say there were any real surprises. “Norluns always trend NE in the end” doesn’t apply when NYC/LI would benefit.

It’ll be a crazy weird visible satellite tomorrow-swath in a chunk of SNE and NJ to around Philly with snow on the ground, massive middle finger in between.

Hopefully this area of snow over NJ pivots east so we can all get an hour or so of snow overnight where it can be cold enough to stick, but at most I’d expect another coating. Models show a window overnight where it might happen. But as @donsutherland1pointed out days ago, this just isn’t the type of pattern that produces for this area, other than the random IVT/Norlun that are impossible to predict that far in advance. Wintry looking outside at least but I’m tired of the cold/dry to warm/wet this fast pattern keeps giving.

They had an advisory up this morning for 2-5” I think. Models for a couple days had an area near Boston with enhanced snow from a coastal front, and this type of storm in a fast pattern that develops late usually finds ways to produce for them.

Looks like Boston officially had 4.4” as of 7pm so their 4” drought is over and they’ll have a white Christmas. NYC will likely come out still at T, going into another bitter 3 day brown ground freeze.

I was thinking Philly might be a better place than NYC for this one.

Congrats Boston. Longitude FTW in a late bloomer storm like this. And no the NAM absolutely sucked. This morning’s 12z run had 8” here, and I’ll likely end up with 0.2” that lasted an hour on the grass before it melted.

This wasn’t a bust. Maybe one last shot at some accumulation overnight when the trough swings through but other than those who swung at the NAM high on crack runs, it’s doing as expected. It’s an eastern New England/Boston late bloomer snowstorm and some fun elsewhere from the inverted trough, otherwise another lame fail. Boston almost certain to break their 4” drought-radar looks great there.

Light snow. So thrilled the NAM finally sniffed one out!!

You can see the echos drying up as they try to head E from NJ. 45-60 min of fun, otherwise more dreary suck before more useless cold with brown ground.

Probably won't stay that way. 3 miles west of the airport it's plenty cold enough and that will come in as the storm heads NE. My guess is they break their 4" snow drought today. There's already been a burst of accumulating snow there too. Latitude/longitude FTW for them in this pattern.

We’ve essentially had a Nina background state in the Pacific since late 2018 because of the very warm W Pacific. Even the strong official El Niño last winter couldn’t really dislodge it. It goes to show that sometimes there’s too much attention to how warm/cold the E Pacific gets when the W Pacific is the other half of the equation. The warm W Pacific has kept the convection in the MC for the most part since late 2018, MJO in unfavorable phases and supercharged the Pacific jet.

The meat of the precip with the coastal low on radar looks like it’ll clip SE Mass. and Boston perhaps. The snow associated with the trough west of the low looks like it’ll favor NJ. Guess I got 0.1 or 0.2” with the snow band earlier but it’s melted now. But generally something to make it wintry for an hour and nothing more here. Boston has a good shot at breaking their 4” snow drought, this is the kind of late bloomer system that can develop in a fast pattern like this and they have the longitude to cash in.

Perma-Nina for 6 years now. The El Niño last winter just added a lot more subtropical juice to it.

Back up to 36 now and the snow we had melted. Maybe this band can make it interesting again for a half hour. Otherwise that might be it-models still show LI getting middle fingered.

We'll see, models didn't have this weenie band. But we've seen that signal favoring NJ for the last 24 hours.

I'm a little higher elevation compared to Rt 110, that helps too. I noticed some small accums around Jericho Tpke, I'm just north and east of 110.

Nice burst ongoing. Street is wet but colder surfaces are coated.

Weenie band developing over Nassau over to my area. Bigger flakes again and deck is white.

Starting to whiten up a bit at the house on grass/roof, some slush on cars.