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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    Wouldn’t take much more to get it to a 3-5” event especially from the city east. GFS was close but not quite there. Perfectly fine outcome for me.
  2. jm1220
    Maybe we can get the northern snow shield to beef up to make it a more 3-5” type event, the setup looks vigorous even without the big coastal low and there should be some decent Atlantic moisture incorporated.
  3. jm1220
    That will come without a doubt. Winter T-storms we can always count on now, any real snow enough to completely cover the grass when it’s cold enough for weeks, like pulling teeth. As soon as the warmth comes back, we can likely count on the cutters to come back or a SWFE that gives 6-10” to I-90 but some sleet to rain here.
  4. jm1220
    I do think we get something, it’s a potent upper air system/vort coming through which should at least spawn snow showers, but the models last night showed how fragile this setup is for anything bigger. Unless there’s a real step back today to something better, the snow showers outcome is what likely happens.
  5. jm1220
    Oh Tee Ess. DC now has double the season snow as our sites, might as well add ATL, CLT, ORF. Why not?
  6. jm1220
    I'd be happier with that than the 18z hour of snow to pouring rain to dryslot.
  7. jm1220
    Yep for sure. Verbatim there's still a lot of energy being left behind and the trough is positively tilted. If we can get that more consolidated and more neutral/negative tilt, then game on big time.
  8. jm1220
    If we see the bombing storm signal among more of the models tonight that's a good sign, then the question becomes does it make the turn or get immediately booted out.
  9. jm1220
    Not worried about it. I’m glad the models are moving towards a bigger storm in general.
  10. jm1220
    It’s drying up on radar and consolidating south over NJ. The flurries are nice but our accums are done.
  11. jm1220
    GFS is likely at the left goalpost with its aggressive fully phased solution and its on the left end of the GEFS but the blocking to the N/kicker to the west will have to do work to prevent a hugger with an outcome like that. If we really have a low riding almost due N ending up over Fire Island, that’s an inland favored outcome like 3/14/17. But at some point those factors pushing it east will take over and boot it out. Hopefully that would happen near the Delmarva and not Fire Island. Other models are much further east obviously but this seems like an all or nothing type outcome where we either have a phased bomb or unimpressive slider out to sea. It’s more likely of course we don’t have the coastal hugger but can’t say it’s not a possibility.
  12. jm1220
    We're not at that point that we know it'll phase.
  13. jm1220
    Agree, let’s see if other models come on board. Still days away from locking into anything.
  14. jm1220
    Honestly if this full phase does happen we’ll be rooting on whatever kicker comes behind and hoping it gets shoved east in time to keep it from flip many of us to rain.
  15. jm1220
    Yup, I had about 15” last winter. Putrid but just off the bottom-most of the barrel 2022-23.
  16. jm1220
    Another reason I haven’t watched them in years.
  17. jm1220
    I will say we did better than I thought, that 700mb fronto area survived coming east of PA rather than get crushed ESE which is what models had. 0.5” ain’t saying much but better than 0 and it does look nice/wintry outside for a change which it should here on 1/6 when it’s cold enough.
  18. jm1220
    Wow, out by Riverhead getting crushed.
  19. jm1220
    DC is just a snow hole in general. I’d hate to live there and expect a snowier outcome. And there’s always that weenie 700mb fronto area that likes to set up north of where models have. Even helped us to a small extent.
  20. jm1220
    Indeed, central PA did very well. State College might end up with 6”, I think they were supposed to get 2-3”.
  21. jm1220
    They aren’t done there yet, the ULL will probably add 1-3” more.
  22. jm1220
    Nice burst a little while ago, still light snow with some larger flakes. About 0.5” on the tabletop.
  23. jm1220
    Central PA did quite well, better than expected from the 700mb fronto snow. State College has about 5”. Dusting/coating on colder surfaces, pavements starting to cave. Maybe with some heavier bursts I can get to 0.5”.
  24. jm1220
    Really hoping it happens obviously. GFS is often toned down with these if anything and it’s showing crushing 3-4”/hr rates as it bombs off the Delmarva.
  25. jm1220
    I’m wary of that kicker trough right on its heels, although if it really does full phase like the GFS, that kicker might save it being a quick changeover to rain hugger. It seems to get to a certain latitude then get booted east.
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