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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    The stronger than modeled WAR wins again.
  2. jm1220
    64 here. I’ll gladly take the clouds vs 87 and FL summer afternoon gross again.
  3. jm1220
    Hopefully the dragonfly swarms can help. But I notice the bugs every time I’m outside lately.
  4. jm1220
    Looking forward to getting rid of the gunk. Today feels nice though despite the clouds.
  5. jm1220
    Doubt it will be since the center will go so far west of us. Might just be a few batches of showers. I have just under 1”, light misty rain now. Was a very haves/have nots event which happens when this was such a convective driven event. 6 miles WNW of me has 4”+ and just south of me has up to 3”. The S Nassau barrier island summer rain death shield held up as well.
  6. jm1220
    Up to about 0.85". Looks like steadier/heavier rain to the west.
  7. jm1220
    There’ll definitely be some significant flooding later in the week in PA where it’s pouring today and the Debby remnants finally come through.
  8. jm1220
    About 0.6”. So far a big bucket of meh here. We’ll see what can fill in and what this round in NJ brings.
  9. jm1220
    Under my second flood warning of the day and I have maybe the same. Had about 5 minutes of heavy rain just before the warning started and now looks like it flipped to north of me getting pounded.
  10. jm1220
    That area around Captree/Fire Island just blowing up.
  11. jm1220
    HRRR/RAP say there should be a lot coming later today/tonight and there’s a lot of T-storm activity over PA. Just have to see what happens. Many ways a summer T-storm relying rain event can fail.
  12. jm1220
    Sun is back out. Guess we’ll see what fires up coming out of NJ since everything is sinking south.
  13. jm1220
    A few places around Dix Hills and Holbrook have 2” already. Here-2 drops and I can walk to where it’s pouring. Occasional thunder.
  14. jm1220
    Will probably need a flood warning soon for that area of central Nassau and Suffolk along the LIE-training storms again along this sea breeze/frontal boundary.
  15. jm1220
    New round of convection along the LIE.
  16. jm1220
    Debby remnants look very TS Lee-like and drench the same region. The orographic lift on SE flow will be a big factor too. There might be an area in PA that gets drenched both today and on Fri from Debby. For us after today we have another shot when the front comes back north and as Debby leaves on Sat AM.
  17. jm1220
    Can see the cumulus towers and dark skies off to my south. Absolutely sultry here. Like a FL summer afternoon.
  18. jm1220
    Beginning of the convection firing across E Suffolk. We’ll see how much that expands.
  19. jm1220
    Seems like a bit of a model battle between there being heavy convection over us or more general heavy rain well north of us along I-90 and more scattered down here. HRRR/RAP are focusing it here vs the NAM and other short range models further north. Whatever fires will have a ton of juice to work with since dewpoints are 75+.
  20. jm1220
    Our time to get slammed for our sub forum might be tonight, models are really keying in on the I-80 corridor down to maybe TTN for the front to stall out and wave travel along it. Whatever happens with Debby might be an afterthought. Probably another window for heavy rain when the front lift back north ahead of Debby.
  21. jm1220
    We’re not out of the woods from that but the ridge looks to be stronger and push the system/remnants west as of now. If the trough becomes stronger and forces a further east track again we might still get it.
  22. jm1220
    We probably get dumped on late today/tonight from the stalled front and a wave traveling along the front, then maybe again briefly on Thu as Debby approaches and the front comes back north. The meat of the Debby remnants looks likely to go west of us and favor PA/upstate NY from the models overnight.
  23. jm1220
    Seems like models were playing around with the “bury it in the SE” scenario at 18z but agreed. Where the heaviest rain here is depends on where the trough sets up and how fast Debby/remnants come north. The “highest risk” area is probably the Poconos/Catskills east to N NJ and Hudson Valley but could be further east if the trough comes in faster/further east and boots it NE.
  24. jm1220
    Still parts of the south shore that missed out on the recent rain, hopefully they do well.
  25. jm1220
    If the center is over Trenton NJ like that it would be very heavy rain for the Poconos/Catskills, a Tropical Storm Lee type scenario. All that high PW air would slam into the front west of the storm plus orographic lift and give them big problems.
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