jm1220

Avoid this forum or anything weather related on Monday then. All you can do other than listen for Mother Nature cackling at us. That’s why I said I mind it less if we never had a shot in the first place and this was crushing Richmond/Norfolk. I totally buy the sharp northern edge, these dry air/confluence storms almost always have those deals where you have the ESE leaning snow shield out of PA and it goes from a coating to 6” within 20-30 miles. The S NJ posters here might still get a nice event.

You can loop it through on the model runs, it’s the vorticity max and lower heights that develop over western Quebec as our storm is moving east. That increases the resistance to the storm moving north, dampens it out (weakens it), and rushes dry air south. That lobe might weaken or move away, but it’s most responsible for killing our chances with this storm.

There have been some spots of hope like the GFS last night but this was always a long shot here because of so much confluence. Best to understand that and hope there’s a rabbit pulled out of the hat but much more likely to be disappointment. There’s still some time for a miracle like that PV lobe crushing the storm south to pivot away or weaken, but we need to see that asap along with a stronger S/W. I doubt there’s even a graze for 90% of our subforum, probably just cloudy. Northern stream dominated patterns like these just suck here 90%+ of the time-wave interference, too late blooming Miller B, warm cutter/SWFE, or this.

With this being a Nina and fast Pacific jet like we’ve pretty much had since late 2018 nonstop, once the blocking relaxes it might just go back to cutters or SWFE that favor New England. Our hope is that in the transition something can sneak in and get us. This pattern is tailor made to screw us. The fast pattern allows for suppressed threats or cutters but seemingly not ones for us. Makes you appreciate 2020-21 even more when somehow we got some threats to work.

2 below average temp months and below normal snow, while south of us cleans up. If that’s not a kick in the teeth for a snow weenie not sure what is.

I’m giving this one less than 10% for anything more than a car topper for NYC/LI/I-80 corridor. We need sustained N trends on all the major modeling today as the shortwave finally gets sampled. That’s the one last hope I think we have.

The deeper/stronger S/W solutions are also the slower ones, so it's probably a double benefit in the stronger WAA push and the confluence having more time to exit. CMC/UK look a lot weaker and more progressive with it. So maybe when the S/W comes onshore tomorrow we'll finally have better consensus. The UK fringing BWI for crying out loud wasn't what I wanted.

They usually edge into these type of events so I agree there. Bottom line is the confluence has to get out of the way at least a decent bit for us to have a shot. A stronger S/W will help but strong enough confluence will just start to shred it up since it's running into a massive upper low to our NE and dry air. The slower evolution probably helps too since it gives time for the PV lobe and therefore confluence to pivot away.

Unfortunately GGEM looks like suppressed crap. Looks south of 12z.

Another good step in the right direction. The storm slowing down helps too, maybe the confluence has more time to weaken. The deeper trend is definitely what we want to see.

1.5pt favorites last I saw. Brilliant game, ND will be a tough opponent. Unfortunately for us Franklin is known to choke in big game situations but here’s his huge chance to break that curse.

If the confluence weakens we’ll continue to see ticks north. We have to see this trend continue tonight/tomorrow.

Without significant changes and unless models other than the Icon jump on board.

Good step in the right direction.

If other models tonight like the Euro get on board, I’ll buy that something might happen here (meaning I-80 corridor/latitude). If not this run is likely a tease.

Yes those two (first two).

Probably a tease until other models jump on.

Not that difficult a call here unfortunately without significant changes. There’s still time but we really need to see it soon-a big weakening trend in the confluence or stronger S/W that can nudge it north. These relatively minor changes won’t do it. We’ve seen this show before in 2022, 2019 etc.

This is where I say I’m fine with it being warm again then. Dry cold here while we watch DC and VA rack up snow events-get that out of here.

Probably a really nice stretch coming up for BWI-ACY, maybe 15” in those areas by the time Monday’s done. While some places in SNE have 1” or less.

If we have strong enough confluence and northerly flow in the mid levels to our north driving in dry mid level air, it doesn’t matter how officially negative the NAO is. We have a strong 50-50 low and PV lobe to our north which have to weaken or move out of the way or we get zilch. A stronger S/W will help but that will be weakening as well as it moves east into the shredder created by the big upper low to our NE. That’s what causes the ESE leaning precip shield, that’s how you can tell confluence and dry air are crushing it and weakening the S/W.

Not totally given up but I wouldn’t play the odds on this one for sure.

Best to hope for the 10% chance that we see those changes but accept the 90% chance we just have clouds/flurries while DC to Philly clean up. Much as it sucks, not much will happen here until this suppress-to-crap blocking pattern clears up, and then we have to hope there’s a window where we can score before we go back to the regular cutters pattern.

I’m about done with this one unless we see substantial changes. Trenton to Belmar on south are probably good for at least 1-3”. The confluence has to weaken significantly for much to get north of that line. Otherwise it will keep getting shunted/crushed ESE like models are mostly showing. And they often don’t account enough for the dry air to be overcome, so those models showing 1-2” in NYC might just be showing virga or very light snow reaching the ground. The N edge of these confluence deals are always sharp, there won’t be a gradual end to the snow. Where the upper flow becomes westerly or northerly around the PV lobe/50-50 low the snow will abruptly shut off. The storm can be as moist laden as it wants, it needs the southerly upper air flow to get here.

That ESE precip lean tells the story. Need the confluence out of the way.