jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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Northerly winds can get it done in a storm here since the air would come from inland New England. When we have any easterly component off the water it typically kills it unless somehow we have a cold enough preceding airmass. Water is too warm until late in the month. For the Boston area and SE New England same problem.
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If we get past 50% of normal snow this winter I’d call that a win. For me that’s about 15-16”. As we all know an endlessly raging Pacific jet means shutouts here. I wouldn’t mind warm and dry as much. If it won’t snow I’d rather it stay warm. The worst are the teases that get yanked away last minute.
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Drought monitor map looking crazier this AM with much of the middle of the country in a drought now, some areas severe drought. Central/S NJ in severe drought. Our wet summer saved us here so far and growing season will be over soon.
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16-17 wasn’t bad here, was best NYC on NE which is typical for these fast flow Nina years. Late Jan and Feb had same good snow events. The 3-14-17 event going 75 miles further SE would’ve made it a great season vs not bad.
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When Alaska’s colder than average, the East roasts. That’s a pretty good rule to follow.
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Ugh, 14 straight sleepless nights now. Thanks for posting that.
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Within 90 minutes it went from needing a jacket at 8am to able to wear shorts by 9:30. Crazy for LI which is surrounded by water.
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I’m hoping for something half decent in December, I can’t think of a Nina that was any way decent for NYC without a Dec snow event. I count 1/4/18 as within that early winter window that returned with a vengeance in March. NYC had the Dec 2020 snow event then the great stretch in early Feb.
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I just want one factor to be in our favor (where you live is a different story) for something outside of the bottom gutter of a winter.
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It’s like further south and in CA when the jet stream lifts north of them after the winter. And we have little moisture in the air for pop up storms like they have in the SE. Beautiful days but lawns and grass everywhere brown and crisped. Crazy after what the summer was like.
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Are there verification scores for the Euro AI? I would think/hope it’s catching onto all these situations where the ridge in the East is stronger than forecast 7 days out or more.
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I-90 is a pretty good marker of where El Niño becomes better south of there vs La Niña north of there. Maybe in the Lakes area a little south of I-90 into northern/central IL, IN, OH, and around here maybe the NY/PA border. Where I live we’ve had our share of good Nina winters but we need help from some other factor like a big west based -NAO to force storms underneath us. Otherwise they will all try to cut way too far west. And the snow belts get a second dose of fun in the NW flow behind the cutters.
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And it’ll go on for days and days and days.
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Endless summer to endless fall.
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In any Nina I’d be excited if I lived in the Great Lakes. Doesn’t score there 100% of the time but odds are certainly better given the Lake cutter storm tracks.
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Unbelievable that CT/LI are abnormally dry and on the way to drought when we had such a wet summer and the massive Aug deluge in parts of Suffolk.
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Good, lots more typhoons there. Keep sending them east of Japan to cool down that boiling water and maybe salvage a PDO not in horrendously negative territory.
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SE FL has been incredibly lucky and is overdue unfortunately.
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Irma was also supposed to make its right turn sooner and hug the coast right up to Cape Canaveral. If it didn’t run into Cuba and made that right turn sooner it would’ve easily been the most destructive hurricane in US history.
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Guess there was too much of a breeze to radiate more. Westhampton got down to 28 where it calmed down for a few hours.
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It’ll ramp up right in time for climo to get cold enough for it to snow.
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The damage in Punta Gorda with boats tossed around town and the severe structural damage on the barrier islands looks like it was a serious surge, 10’ or higher like you said. There was a gauge in Sarasota that apparently recorded 10 foot surge, and the worst surge may have been south of there in the harbors/inlets that channel in the water.
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Thankfully the summer IMBY was wet enough but not excessively like just east of here. Not a drop yesterday, was a very nice day. But it’s really needed. Much of the country is developing drought conditions since there aren’t any large scale storms around outside the tropics.
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It’s very likely fish food this time of year. If one trough misses it, there’s probably multiple chances of one picking it up.
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2/22/08 was just about the one front ended snow event that did work out for NYC. I think that was half of the season’s snow. The Dec one that clobbered SNE and rained in NYC set the tone for that whole godawful winter. Dec sets the tone for NYC almost every winter especially Nina’s.
