jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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And another huge ridge building right where we don’t want it. Sigh
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Actually a decent soaking in SW Nassau as well, up to 0.25” per radar.
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Not even sure how you would get there. Fly to Anchorage then another plane? Soon it’ll also be dark there 24-7, not interested.
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The interaction with that upper low made it a lot worse by drawing moisture north in the upslope direction for the hard hit areas in the Carolinas, well before Helene made landfall. That’s what caused the PRE that primed everything. It also probably helped ventilate Helene and assisted strengthening. As it moved N more quickly the shear became a non issue.
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Some of the pictures I’m seeing particularly from Madeira Beach look devastating, similar to parts of LI/NYC after Sandy with the torn up docks, displaced cars and large debris everywhere. That’s what I remember seeing the day after that storm. And from what you and others are saying a lot of people there decided to ride it out.
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I mean if we could actually have a standalone Greenland block that doesn't become part of the insane/steroidal SE Ridge, that would be a good thing for many. It was jaw dropping that "winter" how that happened multiple times. It was just one horrible feedback mechanism after another that kept screwing us. But as is the case in most Ninas, further north in New England was perfectly fine and even very snowy. The north cutting storms eventually hit cold enough air somewhere in upstate NY and New England and start dumping. In 07-08 that gradient was S of I-90, 22-23 season much further north because of that SE ridge.
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Typical ESE bent confluence look on radar with the rain stopping dead north of Trenton.
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You can see that ESE-oriented precip crunch which means high pressure/confluence definitely at work.
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We’ll see how long this deformation like area rests over Atlanta, but looks like S side of town is over 10”. Models did hint at this due to the interaction with the ULL.
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Parts of Atlanta particularly E and S side have 7 to almost 9” rain so far. And the interaction with the upper low means rain likely continues there until the center passes. Wind probably misses them but maybe 12” of rain will be plenty bad enough.
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Anyway…if anything it’s about to get even worse in the western Carolinas. E upslope flow will be strengthening and heavier bands will be coming in from Helene. We see this now coming in from GA with numerous tornado warnings.
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There's at least 4-5 of them that followed me into the house this evening. So annoying.
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St Pete Airport had a gust to 82 earlier in a band. This will be a bad/nasty one for them but thankfully they dodged the bullet again by 100-150 miles.
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The main story people talk about years later from this might be all the inland flood damage. The wind damage stories likely come from places like Valdosta and any other more major city inland. It's definitely very fortunate this is the best place in FL this could have come ashore. Doesn't do any good for Steinhatchee or other small towns directly in the worst surge, and places further south into Tampa Bay will also probably get some bad water damage. But yeah, a track 100 miles further SE would've been catastrophic.
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Wonder if anyone was in St. Marks area, or got out if it's a surge zone? Seems like that area was exploding with lightning just before coming ashore.
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On Google Maps it looks like a town with some homes up on stilts but a lot of smaller 1 story homes/buildings. Bet those will be gone soon if not already. Hope everyone got out of there.
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Steinhatchee or whatever's left of it is probably in the worst of the surge. Tallahassee might be starting to get raked. Maybe a bit of a NNE jog resuming.
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I mean the east eyewall would likely be the worst but 90-100 mph gusts in the western eyewall would at least mean thousands of trees down, decent property damage and no power/services for many days. I guess we'll see also if it wobbles NNE again which would give the city a chance of missing it. But they're in for some hurt it looks like.
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It’s going to rise extremely fast with the eyewall coming ashore and the wind shift. And it seems like it’s all headed into high tide in a few hours. Really bad timing.
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If you overlay the W eye wall and Tallahassee it’s due south of them, and looks like the eye is headed due N now. It’ll be really close.
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The land it’s coming into is swamp, so it won’t weaken much if at all before it reaches I-10.
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Gonna be a very close call in Tallahassee, storm is heading due N now it looks like and the NW eyewall should come close. For those places in the Big Bend about to be in the NE eyewall and the massive surge, well I just hope everyone there is out.
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When I was a kid in the 90s we often saw these nickel and dime storms here with some clippers that dropped a few inches. Last winter was maybe a nickel winter where we had a couple minor events and one warning event in early Feb that still ended up well below normal but otherwise drenched with near record precip in the El Niño pattern. Lately though it has become much more boom and bust since we can get the big offshore coastal snowstorms that nail New England like Nemo 2013, Juno 2015 and the Jan 2022 storm, and also the massive El Niño ones like Jan 2016. But we can also get completely porked.
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There’s a balance between more moisture since it often also means more warmth which carries the more moisture. Hopefully that “balance line” where more moisture means too much more warmth hasn’t passed my latitude yet and my average starts going down significantly, but that’s one consideration. I agree though that I-90 and north it’s still a good tradeoff. For DC though it’s hard to argue that they’ve begun a longer term snow downtrend and it seems to be creeping north over time. But La Niña which we seem to be in some permanent iteration of through the bad MJO phases and rampaging Pacific jet can still be salvageable around 40N with the right long wave pattern and some blocking.
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But it doesn’t need much time at all to really bomb from here if everything’s finally figured out. And if anything it might be bad timing since there isn’t time for an EWRC to get underway.
