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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    If we have the big high pressure to our north, I doubt we get much. We’ve seen time and again waves of rain or snow get eaten up in confluence as they try to make it to our latitude. The high has to weaken and flow in the mid levels turn to southerly. If it comes from a dry direction confluence will just eat up the rain.
  2. jm1220
    Noticed lawns browning yesterday in the same places that got 10”+. Insane.
  3. jm1220
    Unless we can get 95 degree water in a better place for us. But until this SST configuration in the Pacific changes we’re left with hoping for mismatch few week periods like in 2020-21. Maybe the AMO change can make the SE ridge less obscene.
  4. jm1220
    If we have a pattern like that in a Nina winter where we’re not screaming every low into the Lakes or New England I’d consider that a win.
  5. jm1220
    So many ways for us to get soaked here. Especially in the last 10-15 years when the storms that come drop more moisture and we have these stuck patterns.
  6. jm1220
    Right, it’s a dry spell for some (definitely not here and east of here that got drowned a few weeks ago). There are so many ways we get deluged these days that the rain will be back soon. That being said the ridge will likely have to weaken significantly and confluence weaken before much if any rain makes it here.
  7. jm1220
    1/15 was my date to bail, and usually is in a decent Nino. Since they’re usually backloaded you wait to see if things turn around, but it was clear by then it would be the same Nina mid latitude pattern just with more STJ influence and rain. The W PAC forcing has to end or be overcome somehow before we meaningfully change.
  8. jm1220
    Highs in the mid 90s here in the summer isn’t that atypical. What’s becoming more common are the high dews that come with it. Way more days now than 20 years ago with 75+ dew points. @bluewave has posted data on this in the past. Sunday might be our next day with dews near 75.
  9. jm1220
    Yep, mostly clear here now.
  10. jm1220
    Light rain. Heavier in SW Nassau, locally 1-2” in Long Beach/Rockaways.
  11. jm1220
    Wow, JFK hit 95 today. Some places near there to across central Nassau probably hit upper 90s. Still feels disgusting outside, glad to be getting rid of this.
  12. jm1220
    Heat Indexes around 100 or low 100s for most with DP's in the low 70s. Hopefully this is the last really hot day here until next summer.
  13. jm1220
    So Columbus, OH might be Cold/Dry, Cold/Snowy, or Mild/Dry. K then. Also congrats Norfolk on the Mild/Snowy!
  14. jm1220
    One thing I hate is useless cold. If it won’t snow I’d like it mild. Cold/windy and dry patterns are the worst.
  15. jm1220
    Some mid 90s in central Nassau ahead of the seabreeze boundary. 92 here.
  16. jm1220
    I ended with about 15” here. Given our 30 year average here in the mid 30s per winter, anything below 20” I’d consider an F. Until the Pacific pattern meaningfully changes we have to significantly beat the odds to get even an average snow winter. Temps well above average are just about given. Maybe we can time a relaxation of the PAC jet for a snow event or two. Or buy a cabin in MT/the Dakotas where there’s actually still winter.
  17. jm1220
    Can’t rule out a late heat surge next month. But looks cooler than average if anything for the next week.
  18. jm1220
    6 months of autumn.
  19. jm1220
    For our sake for the winter hopefully that turns around. A low ACE Nina winter is usually a complete dud. But like others said not much to turn it around when most of the Atlantic is choked in stable dry air.
  20. jm1220
    Yep, maybe mid 90s today if we can get the downslope WNW flow.
  21. jm1220
    Severe threat trimmed north of I-195 for tomorrow, looks like a better shot for the South Jersey Alley stretch.
  22. jm1220
    At least with back doors this time of year they don’t come with gunky stratus clouds and mist. But if we’re going back to a pattern with troughs/high pressure to our NE it will be hard to sustain any kind of heat.
  23. jm1220
    It did get breezy where I was but really blew up just south of me.
  24. jm1220
    Looks like it’s blowing up just west of ISP. Some dark red/purples on it.
  25. jm1220
    Here in Smithtown, absolutely dumping but no hail so far.
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