Jump to content

jm1220

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    24,723

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    Deep fast tropical feed from the E/SE upsloping several thousand feet in those mountains. It’ll be bad for sure and for some favored places to rain in that situation, horrendously bad. As others mentioned already over 6” rain in spots.
  2. jm1220
    I think it’s too early to say “bust” and with intensity forecast I’m not sure what would qualify. Would 115-120mph instead of 130 count as bust? The rain forecast looks perfectly on track so I see no bust there. Surge is also dependent on several different factors.
  3. jm1220
    If it can’t mix out the dry air it can stay over the water as long as it wants, it won’t organize as well as it can so it won’t bomb. It keeps having the same issue with wrapping the deep convection all the way around so we keep having the eye wall open up.
  4. jm1220
    Cat 3 at landfall is definitely noteworthy but hopefully not catastrophic, so impact would be Idalia-like and in the same general area. Maybe somewhat more severe given the larger size. The inland impacts might be more spoken about in the end especially flood impact. I think it may be running out of time to really resolve these issues and make a run at Cat 4.
  5. jm1220
    Wondering if Gatlinburg is west of the upslope zone on easterly flow. If so it might not be so bad there since from here on the rain will be coming on strong easterly flow and there will definitely be a downslope component in E TN. But places in NC/SC/GA that get heavy rain on that easterly flow-oh boy.
  6. jm1220
    It’s almost a given with these eastern Gulf storms that they shift east in the end. Hopefully it doesn’t keep going too far.
  7. jm1220
    I’m hoping for 2020-21 obviously, 07-08 was a dumpster fire for NYC filled with SWFEs that were plenty cold for I-90 but cold rain here. 08-09 would be better since that was about average snow.
  8. jm1220
    It’s good that it seems to be targeting the least populated area it can but hopefully it stays far enough away from Tampa to not make that situation worse. The flooding impacts inland though are baked in no matter what it does at this point.
  9. jm1220
    I guess maybe one difference is the Greenland block looks further north which would be good if it can stay that way and avoid combining with the SE ridge? I’m mentally prepared for another beyond awful “winter” coming but hopefully there can be at least one or two half decent periods like last season to put it one step above complete gutter.
  10. jm1220
    If it can get east of Tallahassee that would be great news for them. Very little time for it to weaken before reaching there. Maybe there’s a “sweet spot” this can get to before it trends so far east the effects on Tampa Bay get much worse.
  11. jm1220
    Maybe I’m misjudging but seems like it’s having a really tough time organizing a central CDO, looks ragged and like it can’t wrap completely around. Might be the dry air issue or something else.
  12. jm1220
    Would be great if N FL can catch a break and this can’t get its act together so it comes in like a Francine or Idalia rather than an Ida/Laura. The larger size means a large surge but maybe the fast movement can reduce that a little, and the area it’s coming in is generally sparsely populated (even though it’s been hammered the last 2 seasons). Of course the inland fresh water flooding will be a big problem regardless.
  13. jm1220
    Felt one drop of water fall outside 5 minutes ago. When I came in just now, could swear I felt another one!
  14. jm1220
    The interaction with the upper level low probably keeps it stronger further inland. I would assume it helps ventilate it and brings jet stream energy in to help maintain it.
  15. jm1220
    Very often it seems these major Gulf storms have a “Part 2” somewhere that has huge flooding from heavy rain. This one looks likely to, Ida was over the NYC metro area, Camille was over VA, Opal was over GA etc. The preceding heavy rains inland this time will certainly make matters worse for the main event. Hopefully people inland are preparing.
  16. jm1220
    Central Park 14" JFK: 11" Islip: 17" Newark: 15" White Plains: 22" Newburgh: 29" Bridgeport: 20" My backyard 18" Well below normal again in a never ending Perma-Nina/MJO 4-6 stretch but hopefully we can buy a half decent period or two when the Pacific jet can relax, we get cold air for more than a day or two or we get lucky with a coastal storm on an offshore track like in Feb this year. Maybe one will be a SWFE type event where it's snow to rain which isn't ideal but it counts. Once you're along I-90 Ninas like these can be just fine especially if we get some cold high pressures that put up resistance to the train of cutters, and north of there well above normal.
  17. jm1220
    They definitely need it in the OH Valley, extreme drought in some of those places.
  18. jm1220
    Typical cut and paste Nina map. But of course it hasn’t been wrong the last nearly 10 winters, the N Plains and Rockies are the place that has remained cold and rest of the country warm.
  19. jm1220
    Straight west to east flow off the Pacific means maybe we’d get a colder rain if a storm could even form since the flow is so fast. No cold air source.
  20. jm1220
    Ran the sprinklers for quite a while last evening, lawns are still turning brown all over.
  21. jm1220
    Most of the models at least had some decent rain in SE MA. Looks like little to nothing even there.
  22. jm1220
    Yup, rain shrinking away. Maybe the twin forks can salvage something.
  23. jm1220
    Time to take that model out behind the woodshed, seriously
  24. jm1220
    Most of the time what’s good for you snow/cold wise is bad for us and vice versa. Nina/fast pacific jet regimes which are lousy here and putrid from Philly south are some of your best patterns while El Niño dominated STJ with some cold at the right time are our best. For New England some of the endless cutter events in Nina become SWFEs especially in a season like 07-08 and are perfectly fine or even very snowy before 15 minutes of rain at the end but here it’s rain with 15 minutes of sleet at the start. “Gradient” patterns 95% of the time set up north of me. So I would root on a Nino any day over Nina. Maybe the AMO settling down will help tamp down the SE ridge, but I agree we need large scale changes we’re not likely getting this winter to consistently get snow events again south of my latitude and this far east. That boiling warm water tongue of death E of Japan has to go away or be muted somehow.
  25. jm1220
    A lighter rain event would be ideal. We don’t need another 6”+ deluge that would cause more flash flooding. Parts of Stony Brook University are still closed from the last one.
×
×
  • Create New...