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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    New round of convection along the LIE.
  2. jm1220
    Debby remnants look very TS Lee-like and drench the same region. The orographic lift on SE flow will be a big factor too. There might be an area in PA that gets drenched both today and on Fri from Debby. For us after today we have another shot when the front comes back north and as Debby leaves on Sat AM.
  3. jm1220
    Can see the cumulus towers and dark skies off to my south. Absolutely sultry here. Like a FL summer afternoon.
  4. jm1220
    Beginning of the convection firing across E Suffolk. We’ll see how much that expands.
  5. jm1220
    Seems like a bit of a model battle between there being heavy convection over us or more general heavy rain well north of us along I-90 and more scattered down here. HRRR/RAP are focusing it here vs the NAM and other short range models further north. Whatever fires will have a ton of juice to work with since dewpoints are 75+.
  6. jm1220
    Our time to get slammed for our sub forum might be tonight, models are really keying in on the I-80 corridor down to maybe TTN for the front to stall out and wave travel along it. Whatever happens with Debby might be an afterthought. Probably another window for heavy rain when the front lift back north ahead of Debby.
  7. jm1220
    We’re not out of the woods from that but the ridge looks to be stronger and push the system/remnants west as of now. If the trough becomes stronger and forces a further east track again we might still get it.
  8. jm1220
    We probably get dumped on late today/tonight from the stalled front and a wave traveling along the front, then maybe again briefly on Thu as Debby approaches and the front comes back north. The meat of the Debby remnants looks likely to go west of us and favor PA/upstate NY from the models overnight.
  9. jm1220
    Seems like models were playing around with the “bury it in the SE” scenario at 18z but agreed. Where the heaviest rain here is depends on where the trough sets up and how fast Debby/remnants come north. The “highest risk” area is probably the Poconos/Catskills east to N NJ and Hudson Valley but could be further east if the trough comes in faster/further east and boots it NE.
  10. jm1220
    Still parts of the south shore that missed out on the recent rain, hopefully they do well.
  11. jm1220
    If the center is over Trenton NJ like that it would be very heavy rain for the Poconos/Catskills, a Tropical Storm Lee type scenario. All that high PW air would slam into the front west of the storm plus orographic lift and give them big problems.
  12. jm1220
    Yep, there’s always a front that sets up west of the track in these that dumps out all the tropical moisture and usually zilch other than a band or two east. Historically this happens in NJ/Hudson Valley but we’re still at the anything can happen range. This PRE for mid week looks more definite and that can cause flooding by itself.
  13. jm1220
    A lot depends on the strength of the Bermuda High which as we’ve seen is undermodeled much of the time. If it’s stronger it’ll track further west and we already see it strengthening because of the sharp turn back N to landfall in the Carolina’s. The heaviest rain with any Debby remnants will be west of the track.
  14. jm1220
    Debby would almost certainly be retired if that happens.
  15. jm1220
    Looking like the buried in the South outcome won’t happen so we have to see where it starts to get booted NE and if this hook back into the Carolinas really happens. Complex interactions-and way too early to determine what our outcome is. We can definitely get drenched and seems like this PRE type event tomorrow will really happen regardless
  16. jm1220
    Holy moly is the St Pete area getting slammed. Close to 10” already just south near Sarasota.
  17. jm1220
    Regardless, I don't think brown lawns will be a thing anymore a week from now.
  18. jm1220
    If we start to see a trend to more progressive with the low it's where we might be in trouble since the next trough can come in and grab it. The solutions that bury it under the trough in the southeast leave us drier.
  19. jm1220
    Watching the stuff approaching SW Nassau-might not be done yet for many.
  20. jm1220
    Smithtown/Hauppauge areas look like they got nailed, up to 2.5”. Definitely needed there since they haven’t been as lucky with the rain IMBY and further west.
  21. jm1220
    We lucked out with the outflow boundaries from the earlier storms west of us sparking new storms over us.
  22. jm1220
    Up to about 1.3” so far today.
  23. jm1220
    Downpouring, constant thunder rumbles.
  24. jm1220
    Tropical downpours already and this heavy line about to move in.
  25. jm1220
    Outflow boundary coming onto LI now, let's see if something can fire up.
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