jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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Noticeably more humid but S winds are kicking up as expected so we can’t go much over 80. Islip and JFK gusting over 20. The beaches are probably gusting to 30+ or will soon.
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Is this serious? Our highest averages and our worst heat waves come in late July into August.
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The beaches might not be great to be at in fact until late week unless you like your stuff getting blown away. Not great for swimming either due to rip currents. If there’s a heat wave for NYC and East at all the chance would be Thu-Sat. With a strong S wind the north shore might not even get that hot.
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It’ll be “what heat” down there until late week and only if we start getting westerly flow. In fact the beaches will be windy in the afternoons because of the Ambrose Jet. The headlines from this until Thu are north of us.
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We’re trading less heat now east of the city for a swampy later July/Aug when these southerly winds ramp up the SSTs and humidity in later heat waves. And yes it also helps tropical systems survive further north.
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Yup, any valley location there and Upstate are gonna roast.
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GFS has the heat maxing out here late week as the flow turns more westerly. Tue-Wed have a daily Ambrose Jet which will cap any high temps east of the city fast. West of the city away from the seabreeze is of course another story but the steep ridge will initially send the hottest temps upstate and New England before the ridge flattens.
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If this heat wave features strong S winds or SSE no one in the city other than maybe the northern Bronx will be over 95. 90 may even be tough. The real heat for the city and east would be when there’s a westerly component to the wind.
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Glad I won’t be in Albany. Since they downslope in almost any direction, it’ll scorch there for sure. Pretty good bet they hit 100 in this.
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Nice little soaker for the south shore, most places there look to have an inch or so.
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Yep. May 2015 in a 20”+ rain month there, Oct 2015 when there was over 10” in one day, and numerous severe warnings, and a tornado that went within 2 miles of my place. Severe weather wise and flooding it was crazy, but on the flip side I missed the Jan 2015 and 2016 blizzards and numerous other 6”+ storms those winters. I would trade to be here for those. The heat from now until after Labor Day there is also absolutely brutal.
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Take whatever can survive east of Queens this time of year. At least we’re getting this before the long dry/hot stretch.
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Mod-heavy rain and some thunder.
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You can see the various outflow/seabreeze boundaries in S NJ where the storms exploded as they collided. Of course that meant other places like yours got skipped over. Looks like LI might luck out here with these storms coming east. Sky getting dark to the west.
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South Jersey Alley rarely disappoints in these.
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Our real shot later is the stuff in central PA surviving. Hopefully all this crudvection doesn’t ruin it but probably will.
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Any decent amount of rain for the lawns would be great. I’ll believe any storms refiring for east of the city in June when I see it.
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Yep, with that we’d probably reach low 90s IMBY but the south shore would be mid 80s. Of course this makes the humidity worse and will drive the SSTs up faster. Even if it’s a few degrees cooler near the coast doesn’t make it feel any better.
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I guess now we need to start looking out for Nantucket Highs in the summer?
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Lawns will need it for sure given what’s coming. Hope we get it.
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Always the chance too that the ridge is too steep/centered west of us which would cause our winds to be southerly or even bring a back door front through. We’d want a flatter ridge for big heat like the Euro. If we start seeing more height falls to our NE again it’s a big red flag IMO.
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12z Euro has 100s area wide late next week. Even has 100 on LI.
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If we really heat up for a while, by Aug if anything we’d want the westerly winds near the coast because the onshore flow just jacks up the humidity with little/any cooling. 93/75 or higher is worse than 98/68. Up here on the N shore is the worst of both worlds.
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Yep, I’d think we want a flatter ridge to keep the flow westerly and downslope for the high end heat. A steep ridge might cause it to be too southerly and promote daily convection.
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Yup, and hopefully enough of this 50-50 trough can remain to recurve them. Of course an active Gulf/Caribbean season screws people regardless. FL is one huge hit into PBI-Miami or Tampa (way overdue) from an insurance catastrophe.
