jm1220

Been a stretch of awesome snow winters for Alaska and much of the West which will likely continue as long as this perma-Nina and -PDO stays. This “winter” was another Nina in functionality for much of it just added with the juiced Nino southern jet. And next probably “winter” will probably be officially a strong Nina.

Yesterday I noticed a nice ding in a neighbor down the street's metal fence and a huge tree branch next to it. So many wind storms I have no idea which one did it.

Horrible, just wretched day. As 1000x others pointed out.

Here comes back door season. Hopefully we don’t have stretches of it into June.

I was just in the PBI area. Still a huge amount of new construction and influx of residents, however many are on their way back up here after Easter. The Space Coast/Tampa are the biggest areas for incoming residents. The area from PBI to Miami is unfortunately way overdue for a major hurricane.

I’m in Long Beach, just felt it too. Must have been an earthquake too-holy….

I don’t find it any better that now we’re regularly 93 with dew points 75 or over vs more hot but lower dew point.

It can be as hot on LI or even hotter on W wind days in the summer because of downsloping and compressional heating (the area just north of where the onshore and offshore winds meet) near the sea breeze front. That’s why often the hottest spots anywhere on those days are near JFK and S Nassau away from the barrier islands, or even on the barrier islands when they don’t turn to S winds. I totally agree about the humidity “saving” us (heat indices are often well over 100 now, so even the lower temps come with Miami like humidity because the waters are so warm) and the next dry period here being much hotter than before. We see how horrible the heat was down south last summer, one day that will be us too.

Hopefully if the big ACE season pans out there are lots of recurves. In a Nina it’s our one positive indicator for a snowy winter we can look forward to. But the tendency for the Bermuda high ridge to spike further north the last 5 summers or so might also mean storms are headed N at our latitude not NE which is a big danger if we have hurricanes near the Carolina coast.

Bayville and Eatons Neck both had 68mph gusts. They’re windy spots in any easterly wind events but no doubt the HWW verified. Also looks like numerous large branches/some trees down around the island. Rain generally 2.5-3”.

Will cloud back up and more showers with the upper low swinging through.

Usual places like Lindenhurst and Freeport flooded during high tide. Beaches took a pounding again looks like.

I think it’s time to pull the plug and call time of death on any chance of NYC making it to 10” snow this winter

In Melville this afternoon the flags/branches were being blown around pretty good and rain in sideways sheets. Definitely a tropical storm vibe.

JFK gusted to 54mph so far, I think HWW criteria is 55+. I’m sure a number of areas met it so far. Not to the point there’s widespread damage but the “nasty meter” today definitely off the charts.

5th or 6th time in the last few months my backyard became a pond.

The secondary low forming means lots more rain for us.

Pouring and windy in Melville.

It took basic pattern recognition to realize that this was never a storm in terms of snow for us, and would be dicey in SNE but a fairly small shift would’ve kept it interesting along I-90. There’s as usual no preexisting cold to speak of, it’s another storm packed with moisture and the SE ridge is trying to make it cut as much as it can. Even if there’s a NAO block, we’re in trouble with the mega SE ridge. And oh by the way, it’s April.

If it’s getting to the point now where SE ridges will regularly link up with the -NAO which negates the benefit of blocking episodes, we’re in big trouble and probably SNE too. Not sure if there have been historical periods where this happened.

Looking pretty likely Boston ends under 10” for the winter which is absolute basement level disaster. Even I had 15.5” this season. If you take the last 4 winters from 20-21 on it’s been about as good here on the LI N Shore as it’s been there-and of course the last 2 winters have been complete trash. 21-22 was better there but 20-21 better here. Looking quite dicey on the coastal flood threat tomorrow AM, major flood predicted in Freeport and moderate to major almost everywhere else on the S Shore bays. That plus maybe 2” more rain will means lots more flooding everywhere. Power might be out/trees down as well if these 60 mph gusts happen on saturated ground.

More worried about the coastal flood threat again. Hopefully that’s overdone too. The beaches/bays can’t take any more of it.

Sounded like some sleet pellets mixed in with this shower.

Already about 0.9” from this at JFK. I suspect a good chunk of us will get 3” total by this time tomorrow or so. Our rainforest-ation continues.

Coastal flood warnings up-mod to major flooding expected on the South Shore bays and waves up to 10 feet.