jm1220

Like I said.... you do you. Hopefully the optimism pans out. Believe me we're due for the rabbit out of the hat. But don't also "we'll never get a snowstorm again, NYC is the worst place ever for snow" when it most likely pounds I-84/90 after it trends north in the last 48hrs. Hang out with the New England crew who will be measuring/celebrating I guess.

There's a reason the mets are starting to honk in the New England forum but not here and WDrag didn't start a thread. Take from that what you will. And take what we've seen forever with this kind of system usually trending north at the end unless we get the rare pocket ace from stronger confluence.

It's awesome but we'll have to see if GGEM is catching up to the vigorous but north models since it was so sheared out before. Maybe we can find a middle ground somewhere.

And throw any 10-1 ratio map out the window. Unless it pounds like crazy right out of the gate and drives the temp down to 32, we will struggle with white rain and getting the snow to stick until temps drop. Again it can happen here if we get things right but anyone casting a bet would wager otherwise (talking near the city and much of LI).

We have initial lousy temps that the storm will have to overcome even if it does track favorably and bomb out which is another big question. The low/lame predictions for NYC at this point are totally justified. There's the rabbit out of the hat chance it comes together but we all know what the odds favor and who they favor.

GFS also went north from 18z. Still verbatim OK for the city but based on a late change to snow and pounding for a few hours it seems. If other models follow tonight it's clear where this is headed.

Central PA has several ski areas near Penn State where I went to school that have suffered for almost 20 years now since the pattern pre-2005 is pretty much gone. They are a couple ridges too far east to cash in on lake effect or upslope, more coastal hugger Miller A systems then (92-93 and 93-94 were epic there), more small clipper 2-4" type storms, miller B type systems would transfer to the coast earlier and not doom them to sleet to dryslot while further north and New England get pounded, etc. There have been some half decent seasons since 2003-04 but in State College at least nothing over 60" I think since then. Their yearly average has nosedived, was 48" when I went to school there of course when the nosedive started, I think now it's about 40" and of course in this "winter" I think they have about 18" so far and their fate with this upcoming storm depends on the same usual late bumps north as us.

And what would the inevitable NAM'd run represent here, the first commercial fusion reactor times Mount Pinatubo spontaneously erupting which will cool the atmosphere enough in the 72 hours left times the Big Bang to our chances?

If winter's doomed to total garbage, today will do perfectly fine. The worst is useless cold and dry to warm and the storms hit then. Sucks though for the Catskills, etc ski resorts that rely on the snow.

RGEM looks okay but slight bump north would screw most of us probably. Warmish to start in the city but would probably switch to heavy snow pretty quickly. ICON went back north at 0z to congrats I-90. GFS coming soon.

From your lips to God's ears. If this does track far enough south I'm in a pretty good spot to make lemonade out of crap marginal conditions initially.

I'll give it another 24 hours before diving in. Won't take much of a late bump north to turn it lame near/south of I-80. Need the confluence to hold on. We already did see one system this winter tick south at the end due to strong confluence and hit S NJ/DC area so it's possible but more often we see the late amped/north trend and this might be a much stronger system. I-84 to I-90 corridor is in the best spot for this IMO.

FWIW, probably not a lot, ICON looked a little better at 18z.

You also want to look at the mid level low tracks not just the surface, if anything you especially want to look at the mid level lows. If the 700/850 lows are over or north of you, you’ll very likely mix or dry slot quickly. For good snow you want to be north of those. For the surface as we all know the airmass heading into this is lousy at best, so we need heavy thumping snow to start the accumulations.

This is another utter trash what can go wrong will “winter”. We accept it and move on. At least today turned out nice and temp around 50.

Gee whiz. Models went too suppressed at day 4-5 with another storm? No strong confluence=another NYC washout.

Hence why it’s way too early to spike any footballs on this one. If anyone’s looking “golden” right now it’s probably the I-84 corridor which all the probability maps show (I’d look at those maps way before any 10-1 snow map).

If it snows heavily it will crash down to 32-33, I’ve never seen heavy snow before with 35-36. It’s really a question of the storm track along with intensity. If it’s sheared out like GGEM/UKMET very few will be happy anywhere. The ensemble members with lower resolution would probably show a less intense system in general. But they’re good in terms of showing overall trends and probabilities.

If it can snow heavily it will definitely stick. Midtown might be tough as it always is but a little distance away should be fine. But we’d be in much better shape if we weren’t going into it with 50s temps to deal with. The storm will have to be dynamic to bring cold air down with good rates. The SNE crew is excited for this for good reason, since the almost universal trend for these stronger southern branch storms is north at the end and it could very easily end up congrats I-90. I just don’t want people to set up for disappointment. In 2 days if we’re still staring at a good hit I’ll be thrilled to change my mind.

It can definitely still happen but people should keep their expectations low near the city and ignore the 10-1 clown maps given we have such a lousy preceding airmass. Some will be wasted trying to get the snow to accumulate. And that’s not factoring in the usual late trends north with these kind of systems. If the confluence weakens it’s off to the races back north. I want this to happen for sure but also want to factor in the likelihood the rug gets pulled.

Happened last 2/28. The south shore had white rain, I had 5” because it was 2-3 degrees colder where I live. The airmass coming into this is quite marginal, that shouldn’t be forgotten either. Maybe this will work out for all of us, who knows, but there are definitely obstacles to be overcome. The odds are still better north of the city. We want it to track a good 100 miles south of the city and for it to be quick developing-not sheared crap like the GGEM so dynamically it can get cold enough.

I wouldn’t be excited at all until we’re under 72 hours with this. Countless times we’ve seen a late north bump especially with these southern stream lows. If the confluence isn’t really there to press this south this will be a lousy outcome for 80% of us or more.

Way too soon to throw that towel in. If the confluence isn't as strong as modeled this will go back north in a hurry.

If the confluence weakens as we get closer in and/or the storm gets more amped yes it certainly will go back north. It’s incredibly thread the needle here. We need a dynamic storm which will try to trend north to overcome the crap initial airmass, enough confluence to keep it from cutting but not too much to suppress it, and a somewhat cooperative long wave pattern to help it track in a favorable way. It’s not the classic setup by any means for us to get a significant snowstorm around the city. What comes in 10 days or so should be more favorable.

Difficult to really say. The Pacific is very hostile in general to producing snowy and cold conditions in the East the last few winters because of the -PDO and warming equatorial W PAC. The Plains and West are favored now and have seen record cold. With the Pacific this hostile, any year would be lousy here. But the background warming will make any lousy year worse-ie we struggle to 10” vs it could’ve produced 15-20” or more in a winter. A few decades or more ago the marginal conditions might’ve accumulated snow and we would’ve been OK for a few minor events that add up.