jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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Might not be the worst thing to preserve the snow for some sleet/rain to freeze into it later. And yes roads will likely be worse later with a crash freeze into the teens.
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The late amped trends may be helpful this time. Need to see the trough deepen and S/W amplify but thankfully that’s a trend we almost always see. Question is if it’ll be enough.
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SE Suffolk might be freezing rain now based on CC. Nasty.
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Mix is just south of the LIE and probably hits as the snow slackens off.
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Wow, nice rates and big flakes which should accumulate fast.
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Increasing rates here. CC shows it mixing as the burst ends. Maybe the heavier precip can stay snow and lighter stuff will be the mix.
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The proper way is on a snow board every 6 hours but the 3.1 sounds like the more correct measurement.
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Should be a nice burst for the island coming through, CC shows that as snow and the mix line gets pushed south offshore a little as it gets heavy.
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The heavier precip might push the sleet south temporarily. It shows sleet in SW Suffolk and part of Nassau but near JFK it’s still snow.
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The heavier echos might not be snow. CC shows that it might be sleet.
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HRRR shows another 1-2” or so especially east of the city so maybe the warm air can be held off. That would get most over 3”.
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Looks like a couple inches here. Good to see the grass completely covered and a wintry scene for once. There should be some more especially on the north shore. The mix line looks to be just off the beaches. Temps still in the upper 20s so still more nastiness to come.
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Was clear for a while that the best snow would be NW. Enjoy what we have for now and it shouldn’t be enough rain to wash it away. Dusting here at my house with light snow. The rain might just make it last longer anyway by freezing it into cement.
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Dusting on all surfaces in Oceanside.
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Yep, really serious situation on every Suffolk County beach. And we’re not even near done with the storms this winter. Huge rehabilitation needed on all the beaches.
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- flooding rains
- damaging wind? squalls?
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If the initial snow can thump for a while it’s possible. It’s all about how much we can squeeze out while we still have the cold air. Thankfully a lot is coming ahead of the warm air.
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For us we may reach 32-33 but we probably have several hours with light freezing rain or freezing drizzle. The immediate coast probably goes to 35 or so and rain. A good bit tougher to get rid of the surface cold on the north shore. The mesos are more sticky with the cold air here which is likely more accurate.
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If your expectation is for a couple inches to make it wintry outside, maybe 3” if lucky around the city, coast you’ll probably be fine. If you’re holding out for 4” or more you’ll probably be disappointed. Models including the LOL worthy but predictable late NW bump ones show the best snow NW of the city where it won’t change over. This isn’t a major event by any means but will put us all on the board finally. Hopefully Friday will be better. Considering there were zero threats until now it’s a big improvement.
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We're lucky there's so much precip before the warm air really arrives. Hopefully when that happens most of the storm is over. But regardless it's so hilarious to see another of these late big amped/NW pushes, which makes sense since we don't have any blocking to force a good track and the mean trough is so far west. The easterly winds will warm us up for a time east of the city. It can be as cold as it wants now but that wind shift warms us right up. But it will be brief.
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I think those of us near the coast will be limited somewhat by rain/sleet given the late as usual amped trend but we get something decent before the changeover and most of it will be left at the end-not washed away. The best will be NW of the city. As I said yesterday our ceiling here is probably a 2-3” event before it becomes too amped. Hopefully we can get that thump before the warm air arrives and we just have some drizzle in the few hours it’s too warm. If it does rain it might just make what’s on the ground into cement when it cools back down.
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Still a question of where that banding shows up. Other Hi-res modeling like the HRRR introduce more warm air and have the best snow NW of the city which is still quite possible. Models all do have at least 1-2” though so the ground will be white at least.
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3K especially is a nice little event for most with 4” in the city. If it changes to some drizzle at the end who cares since it will all turn to cement with the incoming cold anyway. It’ll be nice to have some snow cover with our cold airmass.
