jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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My backyard still was mostly covered this AM where it's shaded much of the time and some patches elsewhere. In Long Beach on the south shore barely anything except some dirt piles in the parking lots. Goes to show how fast the high ratio snow on the south shore vanished with the higher sun and warmer temps. The cement that fell last Tue froze up and had some real staying power.
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I live 20 mins or so north on Rt 110, it’s comical sometimes how much warmer it is there than me.
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Syracuse only has 34.5” for the winter and is behind Binghamton by 4”. That’s eye popping bad-I think that’s about 30% of average to date and has to be close to their all time lowest snowfall winter.
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It was an ugly and boring winter outside the few days in mid Feb. Sad
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In some places in the shade we have a few inches left here. I’m sure it’ll be gone by Sat after the rain though.
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We also had a nice storm to start that January. I think it was 1/7 where I had about 8”. It may not have been that great south of the city.
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15.5” for the winter here. Definitely not good since average here is over 30” but a step above total disaster. I still give the winter a D/D-.
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I’m more concerned about the massive upper low starting up again south of Nova Scotia and drowning us in endless E winds during the spring. That’s something else this putrid Pacific state seems to be bringing us. As for snow usually there’s a threat or two in March here but inland favored. I’m fine with breaking out from here into the 60s and the trees blooming. Just no massive upper low east of here to back door us for days on end.
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The hurricanes may help with redistributing heat into the N Atlantic and promote blocking in the winter? I’d like to read more research into it but there’s definitely a correlation between the high Atlantic ACE hurricane seasons and better Nina winters here. The better Nina winters are known for blocking episodes that force the cutter tracks south. 1995, 2010 and 2020 were very busy Nina hurricane seasons with good winters after.
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As long as we have this marine heatwave off Japan and near Indonesia I’d be down on any cold/snowy winter chance here. Hopefully we see that change later this year.
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Great. Bring it.
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The Saturday snow here is long gone, but underneath that we have the waterlogged bulletproof snow that’s hanging on. The high ratio snow is great for a day or so but is gone in a flash in the higher Feb sun and temps around 40 every day. The rest of the snow will be gone in a few days after the rain on Fri but it’s good enough for now anyway.
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Down to 23 here. Sheesh
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The snow compressed a lot after it first fell, then the daily melt/refreeze makes it pretty much bulletproof. Lots of water in that snow as well. Helps preserve it well.
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We can make a lot happen with even marginal conditions-the storm a week ago was a setup that most would say isn’t ideal for NYC and it was still a widespread warning event for most. The Sat storm came in and was at least an advisory event everywhere. In Jan we did have the 2 minor events. I remember that as lousy as Winter 18-19 was, we still did have a good March period. It’s just a matter of setting up a good enough pattern for even a few days to get the pieces together for a MECS. Too bad that couldn’t happen this year (or is very unlikely to), the background state and especially Pacific are just too hostile.
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Low near the benchmark doesn’t always mean snow. This low is essentially a frontal wave and the cold air is well behind the storm. The northern stream comes in too late well after the storm is gone. We want a high in Canada not another L which throws warm air at us ahead of this storm, and a situation where the northern stream can phase in beforehand. Just a lousy to awful leading setup.
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Just noticed this cool new feature on the PSU EWall site. Looks like the National Blend of Models-NBM is available here. NBM MODEL LOOP (psu.edu)
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Because this season didn’t act like a canonical strong Nino unless you consider 1972-73 which also had a -PDO, but that season has a big SE snow event which we haven’t had. There’s also often a strong Gulf of Alaska trough/vortex which we haven’t had. We had huge Arctic intrusions into the Plains/Rockies in Jan when usually they would be warm and Nino climo would have us colder.
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Our one shot with another Nina is a big hurricane season. Winters after big Nina hurricane seasons can be good here-i.e. 2020-21 after the big 2020 season, 95-96 after the big 1995 season. Hopefully the big hurricanes are recurves.
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Would be totally fitting for the big stalled upper low to show up south of the Maritimes again for April. If the snow this week is it for us so be it, at least a half decent finish in a sea of trash.
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Probably not with such a hostile Pacific, but we’re due for a massive 30”+ storm area wide that can take in the increased moisture we see with storms and cold enough air. Could’ve been this year if we could tie in some cold air with one of the very moist STJ storms we had but still too much of a Nina influence and exceptional warmth in Canada.
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Likely due to more big coastal storms that drop much more snow per event, helped by a warmer Atlantic. We've had a lot of miller B type systems that can blast places NE of Philly but screw over DC. It made for huge winters in the 2000s-2010s but it's a very feast or famine way to get your snow, and now that the Pacific is in a hostile phase we see cold dump into the West, and patterns that favor cutters or SWFE type events. The next map like this in 10-15 years will likely show a lot of blue in the Rockies and N Plains and yellow/orange here. The background warming also means less snow on the margins-like your event that can salvage 2-4" on the front end or to end it being just rain, and even more hostile patterns like a steeper SE ridge.
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26 here, near 40 in the city still. Places in the sun took a big hit today but like you said, still plenty in the shade.
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Look about 300 miles north and you have your issue. You want a big H there not L. Cold air comes in behind the storm as shown-from that we’d be dealing with the warm air coming in ahead of that Quebec low. There’s time for changes but not encouraging so far.
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By that point I'm ready for warmth. What snow we get in late March is nice but gone in 2 days/less unless it's a monster.
