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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    On New Years Eve people were calling this out as a long shot and it would probably come north big time because of the lousy setup out west, or it could be weak and suppressed. A day or so later the bad initial conditions because of strong easterly flow and marginal airmass became apparent. Following the model shifts and especially lame snow maps made by vendors to drive subscriptions just leads to disappointment. Look at the big picture/pattern and what it will support and it gets you there 95% of the time. Eventually the models will get there. It’s going to rain a lot in Brooklyn and my backyard too, nothing we can do about it unless you want to drive north. And look at it this way, the snow up north won’t last more than a few days until the huge cutter takes it away. And there’ll be less flooding from it all melting.
  2. jm1220
    Yes. The NAM is a worthless model past 48hrs and many times even closer in.
  3. jm1220
    Really, this hasn’t been a very tough storm to forecast other than the R/S line going through where a lot of people live, but these are always near impossible to nail down exactly. It’s a classic 1990s type I-95 or just NW rain snow line storm. That’s been clear for 4-5 days. That’s exactly what this pattern and setup will give us.
  4. jm1220
    Well, that’s what we have to deal with very often living here. Nothing we can do about it. Like I said yesterday it won’t be much better IMBY and maybe no better. When you set expectations very low for this like I did it still sucks but worse than the alternative.
  5. jm1220
    If you’re over 33 in this storm you’re struggling to accumulate. If it’s really coming down hard it’ll wetbulb down to that temp unless like here there’s an easterly wind ruining it.
  6. jm1220
    Looks like garbage near/east of the city like the other runs.
  7. jm1220
    Yep we need the good rates to get us down to 32. 34-35 will just be white rain.
  8. jm1220
    Although @wdrag does give me hope there could be a surprise here. But definitely not banking on it. It could be easily the other direction-some slush to rain.
  9. jm1220
    My thought is I get 1-2”, outside shot at 3 if this CCB really happens. It’ll be better here than where you are, but if you really want to chase this I’d maybe head to the 495 corridor in MA. Take the ferry from Orient, really not that bad a ride.
  10. jm1220
    If the storm overall’s weaker it will probably be warmer. Easterly winds are warming up the surface from the city on E/S and heavier precip could help overcome the surface warmth but light precip wouldn’t do anything. And the lack of CCB behind the low means cold air won’t come back in with heavier snow. The CCB is a possibility if the mid level lows close off south of us but if not it’ll be minimal if any.
  11. jm1220
    Up near Ramsey where I-287 merges into I-87 will probably be fine. That area where the elevation lowers and I-87 turns east into the Tappan Zee might be the area where you start seeing under warning snow amounts.
  12. jm1220
    Last year before the March event that hit the Berkshires/VT/NH it had a crazy 2-3 runs that dropped over 12” in NYC. So yeah-drunk, high, whatever you want to call it.
  13. jm1220
    They're expecting the E winds to torch them the same as down here. Waters are a few degrees colder there so not as big an impact but something similar happened in the 2/1/21 storm. I'm sure Waltham only a few miles west of the city will be fine though.
  14. jm1220
    I doubt I get more than an inch or two since these CCB are often over modeled and we have to deal with the same lousy E flow coming into the storm. You want to see a closed 500 low southeast of you to know you’re in the game for one. But I’ll be thrilled to get a surprise.
  15. jm1220
    Could be a storm where Logan gets 1-2” and Fenway Park 6”. Rt 128/Waltham and Newton areas and west are probably where you want to be safe. 2/1/2021 was very similar for them. They need the dynamic cooling from heavy rates.
  16. jm1220
    Backend snow with a CCB would happen if the 500mb low closes off SE of us, which transports moisture around west of the low. Without it it’s likely progressive and wouldn’t amount to much. GFS looks nice but I’d believe that when I see it.
  17. jm1220
    This is the kind of setup that others pointed out could trend north at the end. When you’re relying on stout confluence to otherwise hold back a storm that would want to go on a bad track, at our latitude we’re playing very long odds. The confluence weakens which it often does, the SE ridge strengthens which it often does at the end etc, the storm will keep coming north. And wouldn’t be surprised if that’s not done on the modeling.
  18. jm1220
    Like I and some others said a couple days ago, big picture-wise this isn’t a favorable setup for us despite the model wobbles that always happen. There was/is a small window where the city can snow but that window’s much smaller than for places like Boston where they have latitude for more confluence/cold and longitude to work with the Atlantic more for moisture. We have a marginal at best airmass, easterly initial flow off the warm waters, and a setup that will try to get the low on a hugger/unfavorable track. When you consider those factors and manage expectations, the disappointment isn’t as bad. Makes perfect sense that we get screwed.
  19. jm1220
    Yep, I think this one’s done for the city/coast, mostly or all rain. Sucks. And for those jealous of SNE, avoid their sub forum for a few days since what they want isn’t what we want other than maybe a miracle with the trailing shortwave lingering some snow. Enjoy NW crew.
  20. jm1220
    Warm easterly flow initially don’t do any favors.
  21. jm1220
    To me not much has changed since a couple days ago. NW areas are favored for significant over 6” snow, near I-95 is the battle area between R/S but may get 1-3” type snow, east and especially SE of there mostly rain. Some pieces may change such as more confluence which might force a SE track but we don’t have much time for that to show up. For the city and east be thrilled with an amount that covers the grass and hopefully isn’t washed away.
  22. jm1220
    Euro technically isn’t all rain but it’s definitely a step in the wrong/amped direction along with the other 12z. As I said if there’s not enough confluence to force this east before we warm up near the coast, it will try to hug the coast because of the trough out west and SE ridge response, unless we end up with a shredded up S/W like a couple GFS runs had which does us little good either. And there isn’t much of a cold airmass ahead of this to help. So we shouldn’t be surprised at an outcome like that when we lose what we need. And for those posting snow maps like the 10-1, all that’s telling you is the liquid equivalent x 10 of what falls as snow, not what sticks on the ground. Up near I-84 or NW of 287 that might be a reality but down here it will be less.
  23. jm1220
    Someone want to start another thread for the 1/9-10 storm? This thread was created for both.
  24. jm1220
    This probably won’t be a high end storm where there are many amounts 12+. It’s moving quickly and won’t be strengthening much when it gets to us. Nothing to slow the storm down. Where it’s all snow it’ll probably be 6-12”.
  25. jm1220
    I think any place NW of I-287 is as good a spot as any for this one. It’s been consistently hit with 6+ on all the modeling for 2-3 days now.
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