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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    We have a small window near the city between the storm being too warm/NW and weak sauce/SE. It’s possible the storm goes through those goalposts but it’ll be tough.
  2. jm1220
    There’s a trailing S/W that could linger precip/snow if it’s timed well. It enhances things for SNE.
  3. jm1220
    It’s absolutely bogus. I don’t know how the guy has any clients since he’s been a joke for years. Unless this is what he releases to weenies to get clicks/likes/new subscribers and for the paid customers something different.
  4. jm1220
    You can even see from the… snow maps lol that notched area near the city and southern Nassau into Suffolk there’s less accumulation than areas starting around Great Neck and heading east. We’re maybe 2 degrees colder here but that can make all the difference like the 2/28 storm last winter. I lived in the “notch” for many years and got screwed over many times.
  5. jm1220
    That’s why I hate when these snow maps get posted. In this situation it won’t reflect reality for many.
  6. jm1220
    North and west where it’s colder is more likely to be 10-1 but anything like that here is a pipe dream. I’d be thrilled near the city with anything over a couple inches. North and west though, especially near/NW of 287 is likely sitting pretty.
  7. jm1220
    We’re not getting 10-1 here. If temps are 32 or 33 it may be 8-1. We still have the problem of easterly flow off the water. If we get a good track and precip intensity it can be overcome, but there’s a very small window between too strong/NW or too weak/suppressed. Where we see models now probably isn’t the final answer.
  8. jm1220
    No ones ignoring anything. We’re still 3-4 days away and plenty can change. We’re in the Goldilocks area where the coast can stay snow and it’s heavy on models like the Euro. The GFS has light precip and an initial easterly flow which warms up the city and coast, and the lighter precip probably can’t cool the column enough. Other models yesterday (which we can easily go back to if the confluence starts to weaken and/or low strengthens) showed a further NW track which screws us that way. But there is that tiny Goldilocks track/outcome which most models went to yesterday. But I’m still far from confident that actually happens. I remember Dec 2020, March 2017 etc where they were too SE at this timeframe.
  9. jm1220
    Still plenty of time for that to reverse back NW. We're still 4 days away.
  10. jm1220
    May be playing into the GFS south bias at this range but this was apparently resolved with the latest upgrade? In any event weak crap won't work for the city and east either because of the warm flow off the ocean before the storm. Light precip would likely be just white rain.
  11. jm1220
    We'll see. Something left on the ground after it's over will be a win in my book.
  12. jm1220
    Uh what? It can snow plenty here just like anyplace else when the right conditions are there. But as @NittanyWx is saying there's a lot more to this than what a snow map is saying. Not discounting the possibility but the overall setup is what matters here. And even where it is all snow especially near the coast it'll likely be less than 10-1 ratio the map has.
  13. jm1220
    If we have easterly winds off the water it’ll warm right up to above where snow can stick if not rain. It’s really about the track of the storm obviously and whether we can hold onto offshore winds. And yes-if it does end up more suppressed there’s the risk the storm is just too weak and it’s too warm anyway. We have a airmass that can work but not ideal. Suppressed would happen with strong confluence or a weakening wave coming east. There’s a possibility we can do okay especially where we are but it’ll take a lot to go right.
  14. jm1220
    Good number of members NW of the mean. Pretty significant number would be a lousy outcome city and east.
  15. jm1220
    I haven’t looked at the run but it seemed on other modeling that the S/W is weakening some as it approaches our area. That would reduce lift and therefore precip.
  16. jm1220
    When you look at the broader picture and forget about the small differences in low placement/clown snow maps etc you see how this is more likely to turn out. If you’re driving in easterly mild air and you have the digging trough out west without strong enough confluence to force an early redevelopment/shove east, you get a lousy outcome near the coast. I would look at these bigger picture items vs changes in one run or model vs the next. That “big picture” points to the classic I-95 or just NW rain snow line storm.
  17. jm1220
    It would make sense even though models might not show it now. Maybe the weaker western trough would induce less of a response from the SE Ridge but this is more of a Nina type pattern/outcome where we see these NW corrections at the end because of that stronger ridge.
  18. jm1220
    The best spot to have the ridge axis for snow here is around MT/Wyoming. The -PNA isn’t helping unless that trough can be progressive enough to boot it east. If we have strong easterly winds off the water that’s another strike.
  19. jm1220
    Confluence also looked a little weaker. If that can hold I think that’s our only real shot here. The W trough is going to make this want to cut. Also marginal temps anyway as others have pointed out.
  20. jm1220
    I grew up on the S Shore and know that all too well. It's still too early and a lot can change but personally I'm pessimistic about this one. I'd keep expectations tempered near the coast. Maybe we can pull a surprise and the confluence can help us in time but it might be more helpful for places like Boston. We've seen that big last minute NW trend with these and this setup with the western trough looks to me like that could happen again.
  21. jm1220
    We have to hope the confluence/blocking can be strong enough to force the storm track SE. If that’s too weak I agree the track will probably be unfavorable for snow in the city and E. The western trough isn’t good unless it can act as a kicker-the SE ridge will try to pump and cause a hugger/inland track. That confluence is our hope to force the low to be kicked east.
  22. jm1220
    A way to tell is always the 700/850 low tracks (way too early to tell with this). If 850 goes NW of you, you’ll almost definitely mix for a chunk of the event.
  23. jm1220
    Dec 2020 storm vibes here.
  24. jm1220
    Happy New Year! Hope this can make it happen for everyone. We’ve been snow starved for way too long lol. Thanks for your and all the pro contributions/analysis. We have something to track for once. And maybe this can last to within 72hrs when the real fights will start!
  25. jm1220
    Unless maybe that trough can be progressive and act as a kicker, or we get a much stronger 50-50 that can force the redevelopment south. Otherwise it’ll drive the storm up the coast or just inland and like you said, maybe we can luck out with 3-5” at the front and some can survive after the change to rain. Nothing worse to me than the change to rain and nothing’s left at the end. Might as well have never happened.
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