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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    Sure it does. In the summer you can get rounds of storms drop 3-5” in a day or two while a heat wave or two on other days pushes temps overall well above average.
  2. jm1220
    Starting to clear out here.
  3. jm1220
    Another day, more gunk. Looking forward to our one nice teaser day before another 4 days of gunk.
  4. jm1220
    Which will start more wildfires up there and the smoke will come south again with these troughs bringing northerly winds. Again like clockwork.
  5. jm1220
    Eventually this has to change but we all know what a closed upper level low south of us means. Yesterday on the GFS for 7 straight days it had easterly winds of some kind. Maybe we can get low 70s with that when we can get the sun to come out, definitely no heat. And anywhere near a barrier beach maybe you can get mid 60s. Hopefully that map is wrong. Big patch of cold SSTs east of us now with this endless cool/easterly wind pattern.
  6. jm1220
    Models bring some heavier rain west, we'll see how much makes it here. So far IMBY everything's been light. But definitely a drencher E of the William Floyd. 18z GFS has NE or E winds straight through 144 hours. At the mercy of whatever the Maritimes puke up.
  7. jm1220
    Sheet drizzle city!
  8. jm1220
    I think it may be luck turning around for BOS. This year I did better than them on LI (15.5” here, not saying much), last year I had about the same, 21-22 BOS had more largely because of the late Jan storm that was 24” 20 miles east of me and 14” IMBY, 20-21 I did better because of the early Feb big run we had. 2017-18 through 19-20 BOS probably did better but 17-18 was also good/great here so it might’ve been about even. The Jan storms in 2022 and 2018 slammed as far south as the Delmarva so it’s really about the crap pattern favoring the West/Plains/NNE we’ve all been stuck in. When the boiling W PAC cools down so the rampaging PAC jet can take a break, it should turn back around. After the general 2000-2018 bonanza period we were due for a stretch of garbage.
  9. jm1220
    I expected 2020-21 to be horrible going into it so that’s a good point. 10-11 was the second best season I’ve lived through after 95-96. But we lucked out with blocking at the right times, we’ve seen the SE ridge be so insane that it links up with the NAO block now. Obviously that would be a disaster. But Nina isn’t a game over by itself from PHL north.
  10. jm1220
    It’s that we can’t get a streak of warm weather going. One nice day then back to the gunk. And usually by now we have a day or two close to/over 90. But we need westerly flow for that which has been nonexistent.
  11. jm1220
    Good-rinse the pollen away. It’s awful.
  12. jm1220
    07-08 was garbage here with endless SWFEs that were awesome for I-90 and sleet to rain here. If that’s the “ceiling” even with the high ACE it’ll be the earliest slam the blinds shut in history. This official Nina or Nina background state with the boiling W PAC that fuels the PAC jet on steroids has to end before us south of I-90 have a shot at a good winter again. This state that started up in 18-19, other than the 20-21 rabbit out of a hat good winter makes that clear as day to me.
  13. jm1220
    The trend over the last couple of weeks has been for the -NAO/blocky back door pattern to squash these south and/or dry them up from confluence coming from the NE. We’ll see if one of these can break the trend.
  14. jm1220
    I mean it’s not the worst in the world-Sat and a good chunk of yesterday turned out nice but the drying came from the NE. The rain struggled like anything making it east from the city into the dry air.
  15. jm1220
    The back door pattern is so entrenched that we have confluence and dry air coming in from the NE which eats up the rain.
  16. jm1220
    Like clockwork.
  17. jm1220
    Latest GFS makes me wonder if there'll ever be westerly winds here again.
  18. jm1220
    Sun trying to peek out here. Funny how this back door pattern is so entrenched that dry air/confluence is actually pushing in from the east and eating up the rain like we sometimes see in winter. Eastern New England actually had a nice day because of the confluence.
  19. jm1220
    Another sheet drizzle fest.
  20. jm1220
    In Albany at a work meeting. Huge boom of thunder with the storms a half hour ago downtown.
  21. jm1220
    So far 79 here for the high. Seabreeze is moving north of the LIE now so it’s now or never for 80. Edit-and wouldn’t ya know it, 80 lol. Compressional heating FTW.
  22. jm1220
    Sea breeze so far is pinned around Sunrise Highway. We roast.
  23. jm1220
    South Jersey Alley’s been well documented here lol.
  24. jm1220
    Couple of low 80s popping up north of JFK over into central Nassau north of the seabreeze. 73 here-a beaut.
  25. jm1220
    Might be that the MJO phases that this perma-Nina keeps us stuck in help generate this -NAO in April. And I know it’s not officially a Nina and we’re coming out of a strong Nino officially, but the boiling WPAC effectively keeps us in a Nina state. The E PAC gets the headlines when calling an El Niño or La Niña but as we can see the W PAC state is just as/more important and that hasn’t left strong Nina with -PDO in 5 years now.
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