jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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IKE is a good measure for how serious the surge might be over a wide area since it takes into the account the entire area affected by strong winds, which is what moves more or less water. As IKE increases usually more water is being moved even if the max sustained winds might be decreasing. Larger storms move much more water, which then gets funneled into bays and harbors. Maybe Milton didn’t have time to take advantage of a larger size area of strong winds to build a surge but we’ll find out soon.
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Was fortunate for TB that it slowed down and took the right turn when it did, was nerve wracking for a couple hours when it looked to be jogging N again. Will still be multiple billions of dollars in damage there from all the rain flooding plus wind/power damage. Still a very impactful event there.
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It’s always a guessing game and speculation until we see the footage and hear the stories. There are lots of local effects with the surge also such as in these smaller inlets and canals that the water gets funneled into. It’s very common where I live in any type of coastal storm much less the bigger ones.
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TN is another place New Yorkers are flocking to these days lol.
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Read an article yesterday that home prices are reversing there in part because it’s way harder to get insurance much less anything affordable. Premiums have doubled or more in the last few years especially after Ian and people don’t want to take the risk. I know around here the Carolinas are now the place to flock to not FL.
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If that’s the case they’re quite lucky.
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We haven't heard from further south-Charlotte Harbor area. If anyone got pounded with surge I'd expect it down there.
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Surge at Ft Myers over 5ft and into major flood, still rising.
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With the ET transition that's evident there's probably some energy being brought in from the jet it's interacting with. With Sandy I also remember a pronounced sting jet.
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That whole I-4 corridor will get raked and be flooded/out of power.
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May have been Ida. That was really bad rain wise for my area, eastern PA and NJ, and S NJ I remember there being a tornado outbreak south of the track.
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And it appears there were multiple EF2 or 3 wedge type tornadoes. Also extremely rare in hurricanes.
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These winds are felt offshore where there is no friction. Maybe a very small area right on the beach did.
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Models seem to have it mainly along I-4 so Orlando will likely get blasted too, hopefully not as bad as Tampa. It'll be along and north of wherever the quasi-frontal boundary sets up that focuses and dumps out the moist southerly feed east of the center.
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So that’s a surge now of 6ft there and still rising fast (8ft water level minus 2ft normal). Punta Gorda further north must be even worse and will get worse as more water funnels into the harbor. The tide is also coming back in.
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8-9” now in Tampa proper and absolutely pouring in that N eyewall area. Wonder if we see evidence of the sting jet soon down near the Charlotte Harbor area.
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Must be some flooding coming from the bay into eastern St Pete area. There’ll be over 12” rain across that whole area.
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The storm’s over? Nice!
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Unfortunately landfall is about when I thought the serious water rises would start down there. About when the wind shifts direction.
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It'll get much worse there.
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Some estimates 12-13”+ in St Pete Beach area.
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And it’s probably still a couple to few hours away. The center has slowed down and it won’t really come in until winds switch to onshore. Tampa I think it’s safe to say dodged that bullet but maybe 18” of rain and well over hurricane force gusts in the N eyewall is no joke. Charlotte Harbor I think gets the worst like you said and still heavily populated there very close to sea level.
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Already 10” rain per radar estimate at St Pete Beach with much more to come. Someone in the Tampa/St Pete area and then along I-4 might end up with 18”.
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For sure, the water pushed into Charlotte Harbor and up the inlets will be a big problem. And looks like it’s headed into high tide from here.
