jm1220

Winds if anything will be behind the front. Heavy rain’s our threat since the front/low trended east. Maybe Montauk and Cape Cod will get the high wind but less rain. Over 2” IMBY already.

Yep, getting smoked. I guess better this than the damaging winds (although it's getting gusty). We probably have 3" left to go. For better or worse you can see the connection from the tropical Pacific on this one.

Yep, getting soaked IMBY. Some of us will probably get to 4” as we’re just getting started with it.

Most models have 2"+ city and east, how much more depends on how long and where training happens. I'd rather have the heavy rain vs 60+ mph wind to knock the power out east of the low, so there's that.

Gonna be a soaker here, hopefully some snow happens NW. Could be 3"+ around the city and east, most models have some training for a few hours. And this is definitely an El Nino storm too, you can see the E Pac tropical connection. For snow it's all about when the 700 low closes off, hopefully it happens sooner so precip can linger behind the front.

I still have the access! However I haven’t checked that site out in forever. Way better free tools out there now. I also obsessed over JB back then, haven’t cared what he’s had to say in the same just about forever.

For us (maybe not E Suffolk) it looks like it's becoming more of a heavy rain vs wind threat. The front and developing low are trending east which means the resulting wind east of the front doesn't get going until later and after the front is past. But the rain is still very much a threat and there could be training heavy rain for a while as the low gets going. And the developing low could keep precip going well behind the front which means snow mixes in NW and especially in the higher elevations. Just about at our latitude a 700mb low closes off on the NAM/GFS which will help precip persist behind the low.

Yep. Wow time flies.

I’ll keep the shorts and T-shirts handy.

We're heading into/have been for a while in a boom or bust snow distribution where we either suffer with almost no snow or we get a bonanza 50"+ season. 21-22 was a bit of an aberration since I was about at average for the winter and east of me like at ISP above average largely from the Jan 22 blizzard. 20-21 had the huge few weeks in Feb. We have boom or bust periods with little in between. What's becoming rare are the smaller 2-4" type events.

I don’t think many posters here want warm/boring in the winter. I think it’s realism and people reacting/trolling when the realism isn’t what they want to read. People here forget when Bluewave was analyzing the trends and how the background state promotes big blizzards for our sub forum more often than the past. I don’t think you can deny that the WPAC warm pool persisting for several winters and -PDO have enhanced a Nina like state in the winter which promotes us being warmer/West and Plains colder. Maybe this year the Nino can overcome that and we get a great second half, hopefully we see this. In any event I learn a ton when I read Bluewave’s analyses as well as others like GaWx, 40/70 Benchmark etc and I definitely appreciate that work. People need to chill out/calm down since we’re only at 12/8 and have 3 months to go. And at the end there’s nothing we can do about any of these factors anyway. It’s not like Bluewave or any supposed “warm” poster can change anything with their posts. As I said and should be obvious, the 2000-2018 period with repeated big winters/storms won’t last forever and we’re due for a boring stretch. The background AGW is also working against us but not to the point where it’s prohibitive yet.

Nassau County would’ve had 18”+ if so much of the start wasn’t wasted on sleet and rain. I’m sure you remember-it was pounding sleet in Long Beach for probably 2 hours as the heaviest of the precip was overhead. And there was still 10-11” snow after.

It was 5” here on the north shore but was gone in a day. The south shore was 2-3 degrees warmer and just got white rain. Literally nothing on the ground 10 miles south of here. The usual UHI effects screwed over much of the city.

GFS has 60+ mph gusts overnight Sun into Mon with the cold front east of the city.

Within 25-30 years we’ll likely have multiple deadly heat waves where NYC gets over 105 degrees in the summer over multiple days, maybe even each summer. We’ve lucked out over the last few summers where the worst of the summer heat has been SW of us. That won’t last forever. TX and FL had their record or near record hottest summer this year.

I hope you have your affairs in order.

Brief snow shower here in Melville.

Pop’s in Island Park (closed now) had all the summer palm trees sit out in the winter and die. To me such a ridiculous waste. At least Malibu in Lido Beach puts them away.

Plenty of time for it to trend boring but 18z GFS has over 40kt SSE winds overnight Sun into Mon. That's definitely enough to bring some trees down/scattered power outages.

1993 was way better IMBY. 3/2017 was maybe 3” of slush to rain which washed it all away. When 24 hours before it was expected to be 12-18”. It’s one of the most disappointing storms I ever experienced.

Triple phase with the Arctic jet and tremendous feed of Atlantic/Gulf/Pacific moisture. We see that maybe twice a century.

I vaguely remember a lot of flooding in Long Beach with the fallen snow, and a lot of it freezing over after the storm passed. The coastal flooding caused all of it to turn into icebergs. I remember tons of ice in 93-94 and praying like you did that the 2/4/1995 storm wouldn’t change to rain. Then we had the 95-96 blitz and being amazed at the amounts of snow.

I’m fine with a lousy pattern at this point, if there aren’t signs of a change by 1/15 I’ll get concerned then. 1982-83 had its huge snow event in Feb, 2015-16 in late Jan, 09-10 other than 12/19 lit up in Feb, 02-03 was big in Feb etc. I’d like a snow event in Dec of course but like you said we can get pretty close to average here with one monster (avg IMBY is about 35” so maybe to 2/3rds) And there was more here especially NYC on East after the record Jan 2016 event, there was also an event in Feb IMBY that was about 10”. In any event this winter can’t possibly be worse than last winter so there’s that too. I had the 5” on 2/28 which was gone in a day and besides that some dusting/coatings to an inch.

Somewhat OT but Central Park I thought got 2.3” in the 2/28/23 event. Maybe they got shafted by UHI since a degree or two difference that event meant white rain vs 4-6” of cement.

That's not at all what he said lol.