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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    5 towns area/Atlantic Beach getting destroyed. There’ll definitely be 6-8” rain totals in that area. Long Beach to Rockville Centre next up. Edit-probably conservative on the rain totals. Already 6” in some of those places.
  2. jm1220
    You can see on the radar how this setup works-the smaller cells firing up over the ocean and heading NW, then exploding into the firehose when they reach the inverted trough.
  3. jm1220
    The main firehose band looks to be pivoting east very slowly. Nassau might be screwed pretty soon and my area needs to keep an eye on it too. Already 3-5” in western Nassau.
  4. jm1220
    The Van Wyck is a disaster on a clear day, can’t imagine it now.
  5. jm1220
    I wouldn’t follow any model too closely, they’re flopping around and some are clearly wrong already like the 12z GFS.
  6. jm1220
    State of emergency declared in NYC.
  7. jm1220
    HRRR’s been all over the place here. Now we’re back to getting soaked in Suffolk. It’s bad for the city/Nassau but please keep the training out that way, thanks.
  8. jm1220
    JFK getting pounded again and they’re well over 4”. They might be next with a terminal closed.
  9. jm1220
    And you forecast it the best out of anyone, kudos again.
  10. jm1220
    There were predictions for locally 5”+ and flood watches so no, to me this was well forecast. Models did a good job as well pointing this out.
  11. jm1220
    Long Beach over 3” now and 4”+ closer to the Rockaways. I’m sure there’s flooding there.
  12. jm1220
    I have about 1.25”. Still a long way to go but if 3k NAM is right (big if since it’s been flopping all over the place), we’re good. I don’t want to deal with flooded streets/basement so I’m totally fine with this being a bust other than just laughing at how the jackpot’s been in the same areas for the last 4 months.
  13. jm1220
    We’ll see if any of the training can make it here but cautiously optimistic we miss out on the crazy stuff. Nassau still under the gun.
  14. jm1220
    S Nassau, 5 towns and Long Beach area must be having some flooding too. 2-3”+ there so far and looks like more heavy rain incoming.
  15. jm1220
    Training possibly setting up for Nassau with the heavy rain south of Long Beach. And yes, the inverted trough setup will keep filling in the rain. Very moist Atlantic air is rising as it comes in from the east into the trough.
  16. jm1220
    Radar is estimating 4-5” in much of Brooklyn.
  17. jm1220
    Looks like already 3.25” at JFK.
  18. jm1220
    9z HRRR shows 4-7” more rain for Nassau and W Suffolk, and 6z NAM was very wet too. Still a long way to go here.
  19. jm1220
    About 0.75” so far, moderate rain currently.
  20. jm1220
    Already estimating over 2" of rain in the Rockaways pushing toward JFK.
  21. jm1220
    Yep. Me, PSV, Rmine, WestBabylonWeather etc are in deep doo doo if that happens. And it's still raining after this.
  22. jm1220
    FV3 (I think it's a NAM and GFS blend hi-res model) also has the bullseye over LI. 4-7" from NYC to Manorville by 6z Sat.
  23. jm1220
    Nope, regular NAM (not the 3k) has it over LI. By tomorrow 0z there's 6" IMBY and still pouring. Our time with it will probably be late morning/afternoon. 3K looks different from the regular NAM again. I wouldn't say we're out of the woods on LI for very heavy rain totals.
  24. jm1220
    HRRR still has 3-6" across the island, more west. The initial heavy rain will be west of us but during the day tomorrow it evolves into more of a comma shape and translates east. I'm glad it's walking away from the Aug 2014 and 2011 type insane totals, that would be major to catastrophic.
  25. jm1220
    You can start to see where this initial round of rain is favoring.
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