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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    I would think with enough preceding cold air, a low taking an unfavorable track could at least be a solid front end before changing over like Feb 1995. If the rain is limited before dry slotting and a lot of snow remains I’m fine with it. People forget that there was rain mixed in at one point or another near the coast in each of the bigger 2020-21 storms.
  2. jm1220
    Wow-State College webcams show almost whiteout happening. Crazy those orange echos are all snow. Too bad time is limited on this one before changing over.
  3. jm1220
    Wow-oranges over State College now and webcams/CC show it’s all snow. Must be piling up in a big hurry. Shame it will be changing to rain pretty soon.
  4. jm1220
    Hopefully. It would be awful luck for us to totally miss out on a block and some real cold air that looks headed our way after 1/12.
  5. jm1220
    If there’s real cold air in place it would improve those odds. But eventually any storm taking that amplified track would go to rain if it tracks over/west of you.
  6. jm1220
    Central PA getting crushed this morning. May be a few inches before they change over.
  7. jm1220
    Yeah we’d want the western ridge axis further east. If the trough is over MN/WI and that deep, it would probably cut the storm north too early for us city and east.
  8. jm1220
    Point and click for Long Beach is up to 70 mph gusts. Wow. Anyway if there’s no inversion tonight there could be serious wind since that LLJ really gets going off the NJ coast. Again we’re lucky the worst winds seem to be during low tide. But the wash overs/beach erosion will be quite severe unfortunately. 70 mph winds definitely will cause a lot of tree/power issues. 50-55 mph is tolerable, 70 another story.
  9. jm1220
    Well-this GFS run definitely brings the cold after 1/12. And no complaints about it on the wrong side of the pole.
  10. jm1220
    There are some patches of snow left on shaded lawns. There was maybe close to an inch here. If there’s a lot of snow on the car it came from north of the city.
  11. jm1220
    Hopefully the worst comes overnight Tue into Wed which would be at low tide. By Wed AM high tide the winds might switch to offshore which would lessen the coastal flood impact quite a bit.
  12. jm1220
    Yes it’s overdone but I could see 60+ mph gusts especially if there’s an organized squall line and/or the inversion breaks. That’ll be enough to knock trees down and power out.
  13. jm1220
    I wonder how real that upslope aspect to the rains are inland. I know those SE winds will be bringing tons of moisture. If so that'll just add to the huge flood threat.
  14. jm1220
    Hopefully this pattern after 1/13 with more blocking can produce something. I have some hope we can get something to materialize and there should be plenty of cold air to tap. Otherwise yeah, in Long Beach where I was for the last storm, even people who generally don’t like snow are wondering when it will snow again, and when their young kids will get to see snow on the ground. So this snow drought is quite unusual even there. The last snow of any consequence on the South Shore was two years ago.
  15. jm1220
    I saw about 10 flakes and kept civilized. If they can’t get over whatever their issue is that’s for their therapist to help them figure out. It very much sucked but you accept there’s nothing you can do to change it other than move or if you have to, wreck up the banter thread.
  16. jm1220
    I try to mention interior/NW but to be honest their outcome with the last storm was determined 4-5 days in advance and I understand how things work down here a lot better. And like others said most posters are from the city/near the coast. As for the ridiculous bickering and insults, those posters need to grow the F up.
  17. jm1220
    95% of them just got a significant to major snowstorm… Anyway definitely concerning system tomorrow night with strong winds (though probably overdone on most modeling) and heavy rains esp NW where snowmelt will cause big flood concerns. Here hopefully the worst happens at low tide again.
  18. jm1220
    I’d like it more when I had some of said snow.
  19. jm1220
    Getting close to new moon so the lunar tides will probably enhance the flooding. Low tide at Jones Inlet is 11:46pm on Tue which is around when the worst of the SE winds might be, so we may luck out again with the worst impact at low tide. The 5:47pm Tue high tide may have the worst flooding but hopefully that's before the worst of the storm.
  20. jm1220
    Yep, 3.1" as of 7pm. Maybe they added a few tenths onto it.
  21. jm1220
    And yes I would definitely be concerned about major flooding N/W of the city where there was significant snow and now 2"+ rain with roaring southerly winds on Tue, with ground already saturated. That's why honestly it's a blessing in disguise for those of us that didn't get much snow. The SE winds will also upslope in some of those same areas, enhancing the rain amounts.
  22. jm1220
    According to the NE forum they had 3.3". If it's still snowing there it may end up close to 4". The WAA part busted from the easterly wind issues but they caught the blossoming CCB which happened too late for us. Not the 10 or 12" some models had and less than the warning event they were supposed to get but something half decent still salvaged.
  23. jm1220
    Here it's patchy coverage on grass left. Would've been a nice scene earlier but I didn't miss much. Hopefully later in the month are better chances.
  24. jm1220
    They ended with over 3 and it's still snowing there but won't amount to much. The CCB blossomed in time for them and the cold air came down. Many more ways for them to get snow.
  25. jm1220
    The Sound helped much of LI big time in the Jan 2022 blizzard. You could see the sound enhanced snow for hours over the eastern 2/3 of the island.
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