jm1220

This'll likely be known for the 20 mile swath that kills it and everyone else around that gets skunked. This band stole all the dynamics. Models did hint at it. Guess we'll see what happens when this band goes east and we have this hangback snow. That's my one chance to make it to WWA criteria if this adds up somehow. These micro flakes ain't doing it. And an example of why ground temps alone have little to do with ratios. In the death band there are also huge dendrites that stack up because the lift is way better.

Maybe 0.5" on my table. Light tiny micro flakes. Guess it's better than total subsidence north of the band.

Band inching toward the south shore. Man it's gonna be close.

Was clear for quite some time this north fronto band would be nuts. If only today's north trend could've gotten it 30 miles NE. Philly's WSW is in the pooper though I think.

Light snow, colder surfaces and some paved are coated.

We should have light hangback snow until 8-9am or so, that's what'll eventually give areas north of this band their 1-3".

If you're in Oceanside you should get slammed. Yellows are almost to the beach. And to the west it is still edging north. Maybe it can eventually make it to the LIE.

I think at least Staten Island over to Long Beach/Jones Beach gets into it. If I was still in Long Beach it would be exciting, and awesome for them given how much the south shore skunk zone's been the last couple winters and in general. Up north of the LIE where I am... I doubt it but we'll see. Models all have some decent snow making it here later overnight and through good part of the AM so I'd think everyone gets a couple inches.

The lighter stuff north of Harrisburg should pivot through here and give us a couple inches maybe. But that fronto band was how we had a chance at more than that. It'll be a nailbiter for the south shore or if it stays just off the beach.

Staten Island to Long Beach might be rocking soon. Flurries here. We'll see what happens.

Harrisburg getting rocked. Trajectory on that band looks really good for over to around Elizabeth and the South Shore from there. Hoping for my backyard it can bump north a little more.

We’ll see what happens in PHL. Under a warning but downtown is still at 40 (it will cool quickly when snow starts) and short range models have most snow near Allentown and along I-78.

Some reports from Ohio up to 9” from the Pittsburgh thread. And still snowing (light) there.

Some overachieving in E Ohio, some places already over 4”. That skinny band and nearby mean business.

Maybe some help from easterly flow and upslope? It’s been kinda consistent with the snow maxes in central PA.

We have snow cover to help radiate plus out of the UHI.

If that’s all you got on Tue you have a really good shot at that. I won’t get 7.5” but hopefully 3-4” to refresh the pack for a couple days. Had a lot of melt today in the strong sun and temps over 40. Snow will also stick right away and none gets wasted to getting temps to freezing. I’m down to 29 and looks like you’re 31-32.

I ended with 7.5”. That off run gave me over a foot, I think 16” which was obviously way high. It’s really nowcast time to see where the banding sets up and heads through PA.

Euro had a burp run at 6z as the last storm came in that gave me 16”. Not concerned whatsoever.

Already down to 30 here. Watching the heavy band right around PIT and west from there argues that this has legs pretty far north for us.

Should be a really nice event for the South Shore. Can't think of the last time they were looking at the jackpot. Pretty much endlessly the last 2 winters they've been shafted even more than everyone else. Could be some 6" amounts if banding edges north just a little more which happens quite often. Look at how crazy far N the fronto band made it in the last storm.

Who knows where that zone ends up, but there’ll definitely be a pretty narrow zone that does really well and just south gets ripped off in subsidence. This doesn’t have a ton of moisture with it and relies a lot on the mid level forcing to squeeze out juice. But all will get snow which in this winter is still a huge win.

If we’re heading into a Nina later this year, we want a high ACE summer for the following winter. Has a strong correlation to a good/snowy winter here. Hopefully we get lots of long track storms to rack up the ACE that recurve.

If you believe some of the models today like the NAM just came out, they may be in a min between the northern fronto band and snow closer into the low. Hi-res models definitely emphasizing a rip off zone somewhere in S or C NJ between both. Anyway will be great to bump up the snowpack. Definitely some melt today especially where the sun hits. I’m thinking I-78 to 80, NYC and much of LI could be good for 3-5” based on trends today.

Euro keeps the idea that there’ll be a relatively skunked area between the northern fronto band and main snow area near the low. Won’t be a problem for us but for Philly and S NJ might be.