jm1220

HRRR looks like it’s going a little east from 6z but that kind of rain would rival Aug 2011 and 2014 here. Hoping that’s way overdone. Edit-HRRR nails the city later on in the run. Would be an Ida type rain event except a little further east. Hoping it’s wrong.

Hopefully we can get the crappy pattern over with now.

6z HRRR, RGEM absolute soakers here. I’m hoping they’re overdone. Really anywhere but I guess worse in NJ and upstate where the rain’s been so much worse that kind of rain will cause big problems especially so quickly.

Definitely hope it's the 1.5" shown here and not the 6+ on other models.

We can always lean on the ol’ inverted troughs usually end up east of forecasts 48hrs out line. But then it’ll lurch all the way east and hit Cape Cod.

Regular NAM and NAM 3K are laughably different for Friday. 3k has the rain over E LI and Cape Cod, regular NAM blasts NJ. These inverted trough type events are very fickle as we all know.

I wasn’t born yet but my parents remember it as a very windy day with some flooding (Long Beach on LI). The eye (what was left of it) passed almost right overhead, maybe slightly east. Was much worse in Suffolk on the east side. Got devoured by the continental dry air and became your typical west side favored rain/east side windy storm.

That’s crisp(y) alright.

Probably the most miserable 3 day stretch we’ve had all year and that’s saying something. No real heavy rain other than a few rounds of showers, mostly just windy sheet drizzle. Radar estimates I have 1.3”.

Up to about 1.2” here. Back to the mist.

Looks like heavier rain about to move in, but 90% of this here has been wind blown drizzle. And models almost entirely have the heaviest rain north of us from here. Just 3 days of misery.

I’m at about an inch. Around Rt 112 got quite a bit more since they had the training band earlier this morning.

Ugggh not again. But thanks as always for the analysis Walt.

HRRR nails our area overnight/tomorrow AM with banding coming from offshore.

If NAM is right, CT makes up for today big time tomorrow with the remnant low.

It’s the remnant low from Ophelia heading toward the NJ coast, and because dry air wrapped into the eastern/southern side of the storm, the rain will be on the north side where we are.

Dry air/confluence largely won north of the Sound/I-80. Models had the jackpot along the NJ shore today for a while. Tomorrow should be everyone’s turn with the remnant low.

Up to about 0.70”.

Long Beach/SW Nassau the place to be for heavy rain today. Already over an inch there with heavy rain falling now. Here it’s mostly been between mist to light rain, looks like a heavy shower about to come through shortly.

About 0.35” here.

GFS still with under a half inch north of I-78 through Mon 9z. Comical how far apart these models are this close in.

The background state is getting warmer, so a cold pattern will be a little less cold and warmer patterns significantly warmer, but I think more research needs to be done on these marine heatwaves and how they affect the global patterns. It’s been plenty to near record cold in the Northwest in the past several winters. The W PAC marine heatwaves especially near Indonesia have been sticking the MJO in phases 4-6 repeatedly even when a Nino tries to develop. The PDO might be in a negative multi decade phase now but the waters near Japan are practically on fire and negates the warm water trying to move toward the W Coast. The warm water near Newfoundland probably helps cause further south NAO blocks when they do develop. I’m sure it’s not the only cause or 60% cause or whatever but it’ll be interesting to read what feedbacks they help drive since the oceans contain the vast majority of the global heat budget especially in the tropics.

I don’t care if there’s 2-3” of rain here on LI. The weekend’s ruined regardless. I was pointing out what might happen because of the ridging and confluence over Canada. If we get soaked or not, great.

Interesting battle between the GFS and NAM which keep drying the rain up in the confluence, and RGEM that’s still very wet. Euro looks to be in the middle and still gets rain all the way upstate. If I had to pick one group I’d pick the dry models since we’ve seen setups like these before that ended up drier than expected because it has to overcome reinforcing high pressure/dry air. And Sunday is looking drier on those models as well because the confluence is being reinforced in Quebec. But like I said regardless, it’s going to be an awful weekend.

Gonna be an awful weekend whether it's 1" or 3" of rain.