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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    I haven’t looked at the run but it seemed on other modeling that the S/W is weakening some as it approaches our area. That would reduce lift and therefore precip.
  2. jm1220
    When you look at the broader picture and forget about the small differences in low placement/clown snow maps etc you see how this is more likely to turn out. If you’re driving in easterly mild air and you have the digging trough out west without strong enough confluence to force an early redevelopment/shove east, you get a lousy outcome near the coast. I would look at these bigger picture items vs changes in one run or model vs the next. That “big picture” points to the classic I-95 or just NW rain snow line storm.
  3. jm1220
    It would make sense even though models might not show it now. Maybe the weaker western trough would induce less of a response from the SE Ridge but this is more of a Nina type pattern/outcome where we see these NW corrections at the end because of that stronger ridge.
  4. jm1220
    The best spot to have the ridge axis for snow here is around MT/Wyoming. The -PNA isn’t helping unless that trough can be progressive enough to boot it east. If we have strong easterly winds off the water that’s another strike.
  5. jm1220
    Confluence also looked a little weaker. If that can hold I think that’s our only real shot here. The W trough is going to make this want to cut. Also marginal temps anyway as others have pointed out.
  6. jm1220
    I grew up on the S Shore and know that all too well. It's still too early and a lot can change but personally I'm pessimistic about this one. I'd keep expectations tempered near the coast. Maybe we can pull a surprise and the confluence can help us in time but it might be more helpful for places like Boston. We've seen that big last minute NW trend with these and this setup with the western trough looks to me like that could happen again.
  7. jm1220
    We have to hope the confluence/blocking can be strong enough to force the storm track SE. If that’s too weak I agree the track will probably be unfavorable for snow in the city and E. The western trough isn’t good unless it can act as a kicker-the SE ridge will try to pump and cause a hugger/inland track. That confluence is our hope to force the low to be kicked east.
  8. jm1220
    A way to tell is always the 700/850 low tracks (way too early to tell with this). If 850 goes NW of you, you’ll almost definitely mix for a chunk of the event.
  9. jm1220
    Dec 2020 storm vibes here.
  10. jm1220
    Happy New Year! Hope this can make it happen for everyone. We’ve been snow starved for way too long lol. Thanks for your and all the pro contributions/analysis. We have something to track for once. And maybe this can last to within 72hrs when the real fights will start!
  11. jm1220
    Unless maybe that trough can be progressive and act as a kicker, or we get a much stronger 50-50 that can force the redevelopment south. Otherwise it’ll drive the storm up the coast or just inland and like you said, maybe we can luck out with 3-5” at the front and some can survive after the change to rain. Nothing worse to me than the change to rain and nothing’s left at the end. Might as well have never happened.
  12. jm1220
    Forky’s absolutely right-we start off at a disadvantage near the city when we have a western trough that’ll want to kick up a SE ridge for any storm. We need the blocking to happen or we’re cooked with any stronger storm.
  13. jm1220
    In a Strong El Niño, the storms available shouldn’t be a problem. It’s timing them with the right preceding conditions.
  14. jm1220
    Right, if we have a strong storm coming up the coast and there’s a mechanism to provide cold air and overrunning like a big high, it’ll be a snowy outcome somewhere for sure. We just need something to force it on a more NE vs N track, or force it E before we start changing to rain.
  15. jm1220
    It’s a threat in the board-saying again. But I’d rather be on the northern edge of the snow hoping for a north trend to get in the game vs right on the R/S line at this point. We’ve seen over and over what normally happens with these as get closer to game time. I’d say we need the 1/4 event to be stronger so it can form a 50/50 and block the 1/7 event from trying to cut or hug the coast. Any stronger storm without a block to force it south will try to cut north and pump the SE ridge ahead of it.
  16. jm1220
    There's a threat on the board. That's all anyone should be thinking about.
  17. jm1220
    Yup. Doesn’t do me any good to see 2-4” snow that’s washed away 6 hours later.
  18. jm1220
    Pretty sure I notice some plants waking back up. Last “winter” we had flowers blooming in early February. It’s just nuts.
  19. jm1220
    That was an amazing storm in Long Beach where I lived at the time. Absolutely dumping snow and thunder. And the rain snow line stayed east of me when it was expected to make it into the city. The low made a last second tick east which kept the city and W LI in it for 12”+. Went from that to all rain within maybe 20 miles. Same places made up for it though in the 3/5/01 storm that for the city was a disaster.
  20. jm1220
    Want the trough axis further east for us to really be in the game. Heights are higher near Greenland but no stout block that would force a southern track. That to me says cutters/maybe SWFE that would be good for New England/I-90.
  21. jm1220
    Bluewave can be plenty bullish on snow when the right pattern comes around. But I remember leading up to the Jan 22 blizzard that he and Don S were against a big impact for NYC because of the +AO (with stats to prove it) and they were right.
  22. jm1220
    I'm frustrated too. It sucks seeing a Seattle like foggy/washout 5 day stretch here right before New Years, sitting on 5 flurries for the winter. But especially in strong Ninos it can turn around and we can have a half decent season overall like in 15-16. If we do it'll likely be based on 1 or 2 big storms since Nino also favors our biggest all time blizzards. And we'll all be way happier lol. But we also know based on just common sense and history that what we enjoyed from 2000-2018 will turn around. If we're in a long term -PDO/La Nina state now, that's one huge strike right there.
  23. jm1220
    The way in which he explains his reasoning is very easy to understand and follow as well. He definitely shows his work in terms of how the marine heatwaves correlating to various bad MJO regions have caused this background Nina state to persist for years. He's right up with any poster in showing stats. He said this winter would likely have competing Nina/Nino influences because of those warm SSTs remaining in the W Pac plus east of Japan. The pattern coming up toward mid month looks very much like La Nina with cold dumping out west which promotes cutters. Hopefully since the MJO phases are progressing along that pattern won't last and that influence will switch by late month which is when typically our best winter is during El Nino. Plenty of posters I respect don't release winter outlooks. Don S doesn't release a winter outlook anymore (that I saw), he doesn't deserve as much respect? But it's nothing against those who do and I definitely respect the tremendous amount of work/study that goes into them. Honestly to me with these competing influences that are apparent it's becoming more of a crap shoot. I and most thought 20-21 would be a lousy winter here and it turned out very good. From what I remember most thought 18-19 and 19-20 would be very good winters and both sucked. It's also very hard particularly to forecast for NYC because we're the transition area between miller A type storms that are frequent in El Nino and hit the Mid-Atlantic, with more coastal, miller B-type storms that hit SNE/Long Island, and of course the usual I-95 rain/snow line storms-a tick SE and the city gets nailed too, or it goes to garbage from a tiny shift NW. I respect anyone who puts their name/rep on the line to try figuring out this stuff lol.
  24. jm1220
    Noticed some moths flying around this afternoon.
  25. jm1220
    I’d prepare to be disappointed in that too (hope for cooler summers).
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