jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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Southerly flow keeps us in the stable marine layer all day. It’s not the death knell for NJ shore since it runs north to south.
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Last summer was a more active sea breeze front season I think with more activity where I am while the south shore-south of the Southern State dried to a crisp. That’s been more typical of the summers I can remember. Growing up in Long Beach we’d get lucky with a dying MCS that rushes the marine layer or some other elevated convection type stuff but otherwise dry. It really is very Mediterranean type climate wise because we’re not warm enough to sustain convection on the water.
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Just saw a flash of lightning to my north from that storm, and the outflow boundary just came through. Too bad here it means dog dung for making anything happen.
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Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23
jm1220 replied to BxEngine's topic in New York City Metro
If you want snow both from synoptic and occasional lake effect I would pick somewhere between Albany, Syracuse and Binghamton. The I-88 corridor often gets slammed from the more inland runner systems like 3/14/17 and gets some lake effect. Also close to skiing and only a few hours from NYC. Living costs also very reasonable. -
We still need some kind of trigger for convection here like a front. The sea breeze front can work when we have a humid airmass and we start with a westerly flow so there’s a wind shift boundary, but those aren’t usually widespread. So we wait for a larger front or overnight luck with a dying MCS/elevated convection.
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We won’t be getting anything east of the city unless we’re lucky with a sea breeze front or dying MCS. This is just a more humid continuation of what we had last week. Vast majority of the activity will be inland. Expect swampy marine layer until we get a cold frontal passage.
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Now up to 89.
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87 here so I’m still waiting. Regardless, humidity making it disgusting outside.
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Red smoky sunset.
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Definitely a hazy look today and AQIs are in the 150s-160s. We smoke.
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Will probably be the exact same story as this past week without some trigger for convection like a front near the coast. If it’s daily southerly flow in humidity, it’ll favor the Hudson Valley, NJ and E PA and the city east will be stuck in the marine layer gunk.
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We (some of us) lucked out with the northerly flow intersecting with the daily sea breeze and lots of moisture available. Unfortunately looks like we’re going into a dry pattern so we might be waiting a while for anything more widespread. Still a long way from any kind of drought buster and a month from now, east of the city might be in severe drought especially if we finally get a hot pattern in the 90s.
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Finally some showers/storms today east of the city on the sea breeze front. One did clip my backyard earlier but the best has been just south/east.
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Just saw that here in Melville. Random storm/shower that popped up on the sea breeze front.
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We had a frontal boundary go by overnight which organized the storms. Notice how at JFK winds shifted from south to north overnight. We just struck out again on where the storms organized. We can still get heavy rain when there’s some synoptic feature to generate lift.
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I’m all for it. Get the low clouds/maritime gunk out of here if nothing else interesting happens anyway.
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There’s a frontal boundary/wave that’s helping to organize convection. It fired up in time for them but of course missed us (not the first time in the last few days). We can still get heavy rain/storms when we have a front or system to organize convection especially elevated convection.
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The next drought monitor and probably few to come will show a crazy gradient between moderate to possible severe drought here and no drought west of I-95.
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More than I thought. I was hoping at least some activity could survive east of the Hudson. There’s been nothing but some random shower clusters and Sunday with a few storms that fired on the sea breeze front.
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Yup. We’ve been stuck in marine layer gunk low clouds for days. We need some kind of synoptic system to get much rain until the waters get warmer. Or for the storms to come on a westerly flow which negates the marine layer. These southerly flow patterns may be humid but help the drought here.
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Worse than I thought lol. This outcome is hilarious.
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You have to laugh at this point.
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Depressing.
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Light rain in Melville.
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Zippo again. Maybe a brief shower but now everything’s well east. Until something organized can get together and charge east/north we’re screwed here in this pattern. And even those attempts have failed 2-3 times now.
