jm1220

Let the praying start now.

Queens near Douglaston/Bayside is also a lot colder pretty often vs the more built up areas and averages more snow. If there’s any place in the city I’d want to live for a slightly better shot at more wintry precip it’d be there, or northern Bronx.

Pretty cold morning. Down to 24.

18z GFS shows what I mean by maxing out/occluding early. The low becomes vertically stacked over the Carolinas and even though we get a decent 1-2" type rain it's nothing like the 5" deluge on the GGEM. We still do get gusty SE winds on the coast as modeled but if the low starts weakening as it's vertically stacked those winds would likely diminish. At least this is the outcome I'm hoping for if we need to put up with this storm.

As the air gets warmer it holds more moisture=more extreme rain events. We also have methods to evaluate ice cores and other means to evaluate the climate from much longer ago.

I think our possible way out of another deluge is it bombs and occludes in the South early which removes much of the large scale lift and WAA when it gets here. But if it’s being lifted north and phasing later, it’ll still be strengthening as it arrives. Not good when even the “dry” models have 2-3” still. Tons of moisture available since this is a southern stream Nino fueled storm.

If we get slammed again on Mon after 4-5” on Sun IMBY, we’d have to be getting close to a record wet December.

Another big rainfall possible with the Mon storm. Euro and GGEM have areas over 4” from the storm. Tremendous Nino-enhanced moisture feed being tapped but again I wonder if it’ll be occluded if it strengthens so far south of us which would likely promote a dry slot.

If it's that strong that far south, it probably occludes before getting here. Would be a lot of rain possibly but also quick dry slot if it's occluded. Wind still would be an issue but it underperformed on Sunday.

Was just in that area. It’s still partly closed in the right lanes.

Wind east of the front, rain west. IMBY over 3.5". Dumping

Winds if anything will be behind the front. Heavy rain’s our threat since the front/low trended east. Maybe Montauk and Cape Cod will get the high wind but less rain. Over 2” IMBY already.

Yep, getting smoked. I guess better this than the damaging winds (although it's getting gusty). We probably have 3" left to go. For better or worse you can see the connection from the tropical Pacific on this one.

Yep, getting soaked IMBY. Some of us will probably get to 4” as we’re just getting started with it.

Most models have 2"+ city and east, how much more depends on how long and where training happens. I'd rather have the heavy rain vs 60+ mph wind to knock the power out east of the low, so there's that.

Gonna be a soaker here, hopefully some snow happens NW. Could be 3"+ around the city and east, most models have some training for a few hours. And this is definitely an El Nino storm too, you can see the E Pac tropical connection. For snow it's all about when the 700 low closes off, hopefully it happens sooner so precip can linger behind the front.

I still have the access! However I haven’t checked that site out in forever. Way better free tools out there now. I also obsessed over JB back then, haven’t cared what he’s had to say in the same just about forever.

For us (maybe not E Suffolk) it looks like it's becoming more of a heavy rain vs wind threat. The front and developing low are trending east which means the resulting wind east of the front doesn't get going until later and after the front is past. But the rain is still very much a threat and there could be training heavy rain for a while as the low gets going. And the developing low could keep precip going well behind the front which means snow mixes in NW and especially in the higher elevations. Just about at our latitude a 700mb low closes off on the NAM/GFS which will help precip persist behind the low.

Yep. Wow time flies.

I’ll keep the shorts and T-shirts handy.

We're heading into/have been for a while in a boom or bust snow distribution where we either suffer with almost no snow or we get a bonanza 50"+ season. 21-22 was a bit of an aberration since I was about at average for the winter and east of me like at ISP above average largely from the Jan 22 blizzard. 20-21 had the huge few weeks in Feb. We have boom or bust periods with little in between. What's becoming rare are the smaller 2-4" type events.

I don’t think many posters here want warm/boring in the winter. I think it’s realism and people reacting/trolling when the realism isn’t what they want to read. People here forget when Bluewave was analyzing the trends and how the background state promotes big blizzards for our sub forum more often than the past. I don’t think you can deny that the WPAC warm pool persisting for several winters and -PDO have enhanced a Nina like state in the winter which promotes us being warmer/West and Plains colder. Maybe this year the Nino can overcome that and we get a great second half, hopefully we see this. In any event I learn a ton when I read Bluewave’s analyses as well as others like GaWx, 40/70 Benchmark etc and I definitely appreciate that work. People need to chill out/calm down since we’re only at 12/8 and have 3 months to go. And at the end there’s nothing we can do about any of these factors anyway. It’s not like Bluewave or any supposed “warm” poster can change anything with their posts. As I said and should be obvious, the 2000-2018 period with repeated big winters/storms won’t last forever and we’re due for a boring stretch. The background AGW is also working against us but not to the point where it’s prohibitive yet.

Nassau County would’ve had 18”+ if so much of the start wasn’t wasted on sleet and rain. I’m sure you remember-it was pounding sleet in Long Beach for probably 2 hours as the heaviest of the precip was overhead. And there was still 10-11” snow after.

It was 5” here on the north shore but was gone in a day. The south shore was 2-3 degrees warmer and just got white rain. Literally nothing on the ground 10 miles south of here. The usual UHI effects screwed over much of the city.

GFS has 60+ mph gusts overnight Sun into Mon with the cold front east of the city.