jm1220

I’ll take a stretch of below freezing NIGHTS at this point, forget days to kill off the bugs I still see everywhere. Earthworms everywhere too after this washout.

97-98 had the Aleutian low in an unfavorable spot, mostly in the Gulf of Alaska which cuts off cold air coming down from the pole. Instead that floods Canada with Pacific air. Since we had no cold air source as a result, the storms were too mild despite the good tracks. If we can get cold air down here for any sustained length of time, I’m confident we can pull off a good snowstorm or two. It’s a matter of reshuffling the pattern and having cold air available when we get the storms. If we can get the stronger than advertised SE ridges which have been the story the past 5+ winters now, I’m not too worried about suppression.

Probably 1.75” here to end it.

Looks like 2.5” in the Port Jeff/Coram areas.

Here about 1.3” so far.

Based on? Here's the latest HRRR which actually went up for MBY. It may very well be that the most rain happens west of the city but I don't see a model or prediction that dropped way off.

And it started right after I moved to the North Shore.

People here forget when @bluewavewas honking as loud as anyone about the snowy patterns we’ve had. Just so happens our luck turned around and he’s calling that as he sees it. I’m sure he hopes we can figure something out this winter. His analysis is a treasure and I learn more every time he posts. If people don’t like it, sucks, but he hasn’t been wrong. And maybe read into it and learn vs complain.

If we can get that split flow with a potent STJ wave rolling east into a big high pressure supplying at least decent cold and an overrunning surface, that's how we'd eventually get nailed with something in this Nino. We can already tell the storms will be there, it'll just be timing one or two with a cold enough couple of days.

Could be the coldest night of the season yet. My forecast low is 23, I think my lowest so far has been 24. Already down to 32 so it could go down pretty far. I know it’s not saying a lot but I guess we should appreciate anything nearing cold this month.

Please move the climate change stuff to the appropriate forum so we can avoid the inevitable bickering/trolling and dragging off topic.

It’s workable. Hope it persists and we don’t can kick.

In the PA mountains 97-98 actually wasn’t a terrible season. There was a pretty sizable snowstorm near New Years and another in late Feb. If it could’ve been 4-5 degrees colder during those storms NYC would’ve had a nice winter. It’s just that we were annihilated in Pacific air that winter.

Flooding was pretty serious out east-Mastic Beach, Quogue and Fire Island got it bad. Yep, very lucky the worst avoided high tide.

We’re due for a depressing stretch. Even putting climate change aside which will make it worse, the tendency for more Nina stretches (barring that, the boiling W PAC isn’t going away which drives the Nina like patterns), -PDO cycle etc is unfavorable for us. We can pull rabbits out of a hat in -PDO/La Niña periods but generally they suck. Too soon to say we’re in the depressing new regime but the factors I mentioned would drive it.

The place to be in PA for snow is the Laurel Highlands by far. They had locally 8” overnight from upslope/lake effect and get 150”+/year in the favored spots. There may be some places east of Erie that come close but even there I don’t think that much. Flip side is Bedford and Blair counties get downsloped all winter and have 1/4 or less seasonal average.

If you mean the metro area there was 4-6” outside the city/south shore/north of I-78 on 2/28/23 but it was gone in a day. The UHI probably prevented much from accumulating since it was so marginal. On the Great South Bay maybe 30 minute drive south of me it was white rain. I had 5” of glue.

2014-2015 I would rate as very good to excellent for Long Island but the best was NE of here. Got skunked narrowly a few times but it went to town for SNE.

Yep, so I’m not that concerned with it coming late, I know that happens in El Niño. We already see in the big storms we have this month, if we can time some cold air with one or two of them we’ll be set. That end of Dec-Jan stretch in 2010-11 is probably once in a lifetime though. That was epic.

I had 30” of snow in 2-3 weeks in Feb 2021. If I can arrange that again I’ll sign in a heartbeat. 12/26/10 to 1/27/11 was one month which was 4 feet in many areas.

My “get worried” date is 1/15 since I know Ninos are back-loaded and we went from record warm Dec to record largest NYC snowstorm in Jan 2016, but we need some pretty major changes. Of course all we really need is a few days to line up with a major Nino juiced storm. And we don’t need Arctic cold in Jan/Feb but raging Pacific warmth will never work.

Example 1000 for decent tracks not guaranteeing snow. Even 97-98 had some good snow events inland/elevated. Not saying again this is a repeat this winter but we really need to shuffle the deck to put us in the game, and even shuffling the deck will likely take a week when it happens.

We really want some part of that PV into our hemisphere. We’re already down one strike with most of the real cold in Asia.

Looked pretty bad in Mastic Beach, water still around this morning on streets.

We were east of the low so generally had less rain. I had about 1.5” which I’m fine underperformed given the deluge last Sunday that flooded out Jericho Tpke for a whole day. A good amount but not severe tree damage in my area, so winds probably got over 50-55mph but not 70mph like some models had which as most pros pointed out was overdone. Also pretty severe beach erosion, thankfully high tide didn’t happen during the worst conditions and the lunar phase didn’t enhance the tides.