jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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About 0.55” here.
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Yup, complete turnaround from a month ago. Mushrooms now popping up on my back lawn.
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About 2” here total. For once the north shore got the brunt of it. Crazy how yet again the south fork got hit hard.
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Most models have 2 heavy rain areas-one that goes into UNY and well north of us with the mid level warm front and one further south with the surface warm front. Hopefully the same areas that got slammed in July don't again. The large heavy rain area is probably associated with the mid level warm front and will go north of most of us. HRRR develops more heavy rain east of where that line is in central PA and that would be I-78 to I-80 and NYC/LI's shot with the surface warm front. But if that front goes a little north so will the heavy rain. The higher CAPE is south of the front and where the severe threat would be.
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Warm front nearby. Where that front sets up will be where the heaviest rain happens. Models have it near/over LI, so my area into central NJ might actually be the jackpot this time. If the front shifts north so does the heaviest rain. Somebody will definitely get soaked overnight. The Aug 2014 monsoon over Suffolk County was from one of these warm fronts in a very moist environment.
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Can we have a horse brought behind the barn and shotgun emoji for the NAM’s?
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Was in Long Beach for the overnight storm. Lots of vivid lightning and torrential rain, not much wind. From that and some other showers about 1” yesterday.
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Brief shower here. 0.05” maybe.
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Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23
jm1220 replied to BxEngine's topic in New York City Metro
And we probably go right back to Perma-Nina after this Nino, so if this one coming up sucks, the next one probably will too unless that Nina can be east-based. The 97-98 Nino went into a strong Nina the year after. I’m not convinced yet that we’re doomed to snowless winters permanently. We were due for a slump after the bonanza winters after 2000 that raised Central Park’s average to 30”. The all or nothings from one or two big ones may be a permanent change, can’t get a 3-6” clipper or fast mover for nothing anymore. -
Insane how the S Fork has done so well this summer. They’re almost always the dry spot in the marine influence while up here toward the city gets more near the sea breeze fronts. I had maybe 0.3 or so here.
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Over 2” on the south fork. Crazy how much better they’ve been doing vs rest of the island. JFK and ISP had only near 0.25”.
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Nothing wrong with it. Barrier islands did well with the last round of showers, so they’ll be over 0.6-0.7”. LI is either still in a drought or abnormally dry as of this AM so yes, we still need it.
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Up to about 0.3” here, maybe a little more. I don’t see any LI location with over about 0.45” per radar estimate. SW Nassau/near Queens has the most. Southern half of the island is mostly 0.25 or under.
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Meh. The heaviest is either breaking up or going south of the island and we’re almost done. Most should end with under 0.5” east of the city. Radar now is estimating 0.4 or under. Fizzling once it gets east of NJ as usual.
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Definitely a couplet associated with that cell heading toward Jackson. South Jersey Alley producing again.
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Might catch where I am towards the north shore but this doesn’t look like one for CT or Hudson Valley. Good for the places that still need the soaking.
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For once looks like the south shore might do best.
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Just take that horse behind the barn already. Whatever rain we get is welcome here although the last two days were gorgeous for August. Like others said could be .2 or 2”, the smaller amount is probably more likely.
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Looks like a couple of storms are trying to fire near Glen Cove. Any rain here still much needed.
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After last week's humidity I'd take in a heartbeat. And we all know it'll be back.
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Down to 55 here.
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You can see it on the visible satellite this AM coming through PA. Latest HRRR keeps it SW of us but we’ll see how accurate it is.
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Very quick heavy shower, sun is already coming back out. Had a few gusts to maybe 30 ahead of it.
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Yep, maybe the warm waters we have now aren’t the kiss of death anymore.
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Should be through here in a few minutes, line looks like it’s actually maintaining.
