jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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Scary. The same places recently hit by tornadoes are in line again today.
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We might get another one or two. Looks like another strong cold front coming through on Sunday?
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Not me, if anyone would I’d say @bluewave or @donsutherland1 Thanks for compiling the data!
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Those Nina’s must have been way negative PNA ones like this season where the trough and storms were deep enough to slam into CA.
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If we have another quiet summer with little tropical activity and it’s hot (quite possible if we’re going into a Nino) that will expand. The typical south shore drought season puts that area in moderate drought.
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I think we can call it a fait accompli at this point.
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Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23
jm1220 replied to BxEngine's topic in New York City Metro
The volcano released a ton of water vapor which traps heat, not so much sulfur which would reflect heat. If we can have a favorable Nino next winter and get rid of the Nina influence we should be better off at least. -
Yep, also very limited lake effect once you go east of the Allegheny Ridge or Laurel Highlands. A few times per season State College gets the remnants of a streamer that can drop up to 1-2” but often it’s squalls that can quickly coat the ground then get blown away. I went to PSU there right after the big 2002-03 and 2003-04 seasons that started off the generally lame stretch that continues today outside a few exceptions. Was quite frustrating seeing all types of storms hit east and north of there.
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31” is still atrocious for State College. Their long term average is right around Boston’s. There has definitely been a shift in the last 15 years away from big snow seasons in central PA. Maybe it’s lack of clippers along with fewer coast hugging Miller A type systems. All the cutters along with more Miller Bs skip right over them or sleet/rain just like here. All the SWFEs do them zero good.
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Surprised. I remember 2003-04 as a colder winter than the one before although both were quite cold. The mid January 2004 pure fluff clipper with 8” in the single digits is the coldest snowstorm I can remember.
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It’ll likely be below freezing a few more times at least where I am. Since the city could barely get to freezing last night in strong CAA I have to agree.
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He still posts outlooks on Twitter.
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Quebec City which has the same climo would be way better.
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If anything decades from now their snow average might go up since they’re a long way from facing the R/S line on a regular basis and a warmer climate would likely cause more moisture laden storms making it further north. Meanwhile our climate will become more like the VA Tidewater.
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Climo says I should have 35”. I have 8.5 and that’s about the highest in NYC/LI/I-95 corridor in NJ. NYC has 2.3” which is less than 10% of climo, etc. This was just an awful Nina-coupled winter which favors places that “should” be snowier and totally screws people that “should” be less snowy but still typically get 1-2 big and several smaller events per winter. It’s skewed from the bonanza seasons in the last 10-15 winters but getting almost nothing is definitely not climo.
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With the upcoming pattern switching to milder I’d say 95% chance that accumulating snow is over for most of the metro save I-84 and north. at the to the low predictions in this thread. I’m going with 8.5” for my seasonal total. Assuming my average is 35” that’s 24% of average. This winter scores a big fat F.
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Really can’t be any worse next winter.
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I hope we can avoid the back door front parade this year. The utter fail Winter 19-20 featured snow on Cinco de Mayo. If we can get stretches of days in the mid 60s and sunny-perfect.
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That’s probably from the lack of snow there. There definitely was a downslope screw area west of the Taconics/Berkshires.
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All the rain here from early in the week should do away with any abnormally dry here. The cutoff for data in the report is Tue 8:30am so it likely wasn’t considered.
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Thanks. Upton ended with 1.1”.
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LGA and JFK reported 0.1”.
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The late 90s also had a strong La Niña after the record Nino. Either very strong ENSO signal is usually bad for us.
