Jump to content

jm1220

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    24,725

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    To be fair I think that’s the max ensemble member not the mean, but shows the scary potential here. That’s a 15” dot just north of me. And obviously many millions of people are in 7”+.
  2. jm1220
    From 12z
  3. jm1220
    That was on a different model-HRRR. The “bullseye” might really be anywhere in our sub forum but even if not there it looks to be a much bigger area of 2-3”+ rain.
  4. jm1220
    New UKMET has 10.5” rain at Islip, looks just like Aug 2014 again with amounts/distribution. Upton should really be issuing watches soon.
  5. jm1220
    Also very lucky that it hit LI during low tide. There was some surge flooding but nothing extreme like Sandy at high tide.
  6. jm1220
    Figured I’d bring this back for the rain threat tomorrow. Models other than the GFS are converging on very heavy rain for at least some/most here. HRRR most extreme with 10+ but other models with 5-6+ inches would also cause big problems.
  7. jm1220
    Not sure how reliable the RRFS (Pivotal says it’s an experimental model) is, but add that to the soakers at 12z.
  8. jm1220
    Yep, hoping for that scenario. The other hi res models like the ARW are also very wet, 5”+ for most.
  9. jm1220
    I would think flash flood watches should go up this afternoon given the trends to these huge rain amounts. Generally from PHL to BOS is probably a good bet.
  10. jm1220
    On these models other than GFS, someone seems to get absolutely blasted. It seems like where it starts out gets blasted the worst but over the day it pivots east, so even on the NAM where NJ/upstate get the heaviest amounts, we all get 2-3” as the rain pivots east. I’m hoping the GFS has a clue.
  11. jm1220
    That shows 14-16” of rain over Bethpage/Farmingdale. That’s just insane.
  12. jm1220
    HRRR looks like it’s going a little east from 6z but that kind of rain would rival Aug 2011 and 2014 here. Hoping that’s way overdone. Edit-HRRR nails the city later on in the run. Would be an Ida type rain event except a little further east. Hoping it’s wrong.
  13. jm1220
    Hopefully we can get the crappy pattern over with now.
  14. jm1220
    6z HRRR, RGEM absolute soakers here. I’m hoping they’re overdone. Really anywhere but I guess worse in NJ and upstate where the rain’s been so much worse that kind of rain will cause big problems especially so quickly.
  15. jm1220
    Definitely hope it's the 1.5" shown here and not the 6+ on other models.
  16. jm1220
    We can always lean on the ol’ inverted troughs usually end up east of forecasts 48hrs out line. But then it’ll lurch all the way east and hit Cape Cod.
  17. jm1220
    Regular NAM and NAM 3K are laughably different for Friday. 3k has the rain over E LI and Cape Cod, regular NAM blasts NJ. These inverted trough type events are very fickle as we all know.
  18. jm1220
    I wasn’t born yet but my parents remember it as a very windy day with some flooding (Long Beach on LI). The eye (what was left of it) passed almost right overhead, maybe slightly east. Was much worse in Suffolk on the east side. Got devoured by the continental dry air and became your typical west side favored rain/east side windy storm.
  19. jm1220
    That’s crisp(y) alright.
  20. jm1220
    Probably the most miserable 3 day stretch we’ve had all year and that’s saying something. No real heavy rain other than a few rounds of showers, mostly just windy sheet drizzle. Radar estimates I have 1.3”.
  21. jm1220
    Up to about 1.2” here. Back to the mist.
  22. jm1220
    Looks like heavier rain about to move in, but 90% of this here has been wind blown drizzle. And models almost entirely have the heaviest rain north of us from here. Just 3 days of misery.
  23. jm1220
    I’m at about an inch. Around Rt 112 got quite a bit more since they had the training band earlier this morning.
  24. jm1220
    Ugggh not again. But thanks as always for the analysis Walt.
  25. jm1220
    HRRR nails our area overnight/tomorrow AM with banding coming from offshore.
×
×
  • Create New...