jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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Maybe we have a shot with one of these MCS developing and surviving overnight. Not counting on it though. The storms in Suffolk are 30-40 miles or so east of me.
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There could be a random shower cluster like we had this morning but we have zero shot at anything like NJ’s getting.
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Should just have the map zoom in and have any threat go to zero across the Hudson, maybe a little to the east. Maybe there’s a tiny chance some MCS feature can survive east of the city but otherwise our odds here are none with this stuff over NJ now. That area’s been favored for days and the models a few days ago showing widespread 2-4”+ for the whole metro were trash. We normally have a coastal drought pattern in the summer but this is ridiculous.
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It’s marine layer humid gunk that will keep us having to water. Maybe we luck out with a dying shower or two. The action as is is headed due north or just NNE.
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Definite rotation near Belvedere, NJ.
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You’re likely good. Other than the shower this AM the rain is focusing on where it’s been the last 2-3 days. We keep watering and sweating.
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South Jersey Alley always produces these days. Full on south shore drought pattern here. Maybe at home on the north shore I’ll luck out one day with a sea breeze front storm/shower. Otherwise just disgusting humidity.
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It is foggy right on the beach/boardwalk but my mom’s house by the bay is clear. Nice thunderhead with the Great Neck storm.
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No fog here in Long Beach today but I can see towering cumulus to the north on the sea breeze front. Looks like some storms firing near Syosset.
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Daily convection doesn’t favor our area because the marine layer kills it, the first wave was squashed by confluence and the one overnight looks like it went too far east/otherwise failed for most when just about every model had heavy rain. Like I said I’m not following what any model says. Until the heavy rain is on my doorstep I wouldn’t expect anything. If we keep this same pattern for a while maybe one of these waves can develop a MCS or something that can rain here eventually but I’d expect the bulk of any rain to be over NJ/E PA/Hudson Valley.
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Hope you’re right. Does look nice for now. Looks like a small wave is developing along the upper low and swinging the rain north.
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Keep watering!
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Couldn’t really care less what any model shows. Unless it’s an organized/synoptic type system coming I doubt much happens east of the Hudson from here. Maybe some showers off and on. We’re more likely to get some decent rain when a front finally comes through and even that might get squashed by any marine layer. W of the city and Hudson Valley might do well though in the moist environment and daily chances for convection.
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From the confluence brick wall to the Hudson River brick wall.
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Models are pretty much irrelevant for what’s going on. Today was a complete bust obviously and from here on it’s likely the climo storms develop over the Hudson Valley/NJ and we get a few drops left over from what can survive east of the city. Drought continues/worsens, keep watering.
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More likely I get 3-5 additional drops. West of the city probably does better where convection often pops up in the summer. Whenever any front comes through is probably my area’s next real chance.
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Where you live in NJ I’d be more optimistic that daily convection can fire up but if we’re just on a southerly flow each day it’ll amount to very little east of the city. If nothing happens with this system today (becoming likely), this likely becomes a bust near the coast where onshore winds kill off any convection. For NJ/E PA though the daily convection can definitely produce if not widespread
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So much for tropical dews helping us. Mid levels are bone dry and confluence destroyed everything. There’s another wave later today that might bring us something but if not we need to rely on southerly flow to generate rain here when 95% of the time it just results in scattered storms inland over NJ that die out before they can reach us near the coast. This can easily be a bust setup here with just lots of clouds for days.
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Endless easterly flow in one direction or other.
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If we’re relying just on the southerly flow, it would definitely favor inland areas as that’s where convection easily fires away from any marine layer. Where I am and immediate coast we need this system for tomorrow to produce otherwise it will be a bust.
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NAM’s not even a quarter inch for us east of the city and nails E PA/NJ. Thankfully other models including the GFS are much wetter. Euro is also quite wet.
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Good. Definitely can still use it.
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Times like this I'm glad I don't live there anymore and have to deal with that. Any heat we get-a summer down there is absolute hell. And the years I was there-2015 and 16, the horrendous summer was bookended by record rain and flooding in both May 2015 and Oct. I did pick an interesting weather time to be there.
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Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23
jm1220 replied to BxEngine's topic in New York City Metro
Excellent analysis as always. NYC is in a spot where the Miller A El Nino storms can slam us (1/25/16) but also completely rip us off by a hair like 2/6/10, and the late bloomer Miller B's same thing-12/30/00, Lindsay Storm 1969 vs Juno 2015 and the Jan 2022 storm. Maybe we trend to a place where we have to rely on favorable El Nino patterns like DC now and Boston becomes the "hedge both ways" climate we have as the storm tracks head north, and generally become warmer? No doubt as there's more moisture available in a warmer climate and there is still enough cold air for snow, Northern New England and probably Northern Midwest would benefit. We've been stuck in a Nina like background state for the last few years due in large part to the crazy warm W PAC, wonder if that can switch this year. Any background Nina state is bad for us unless there's some compensating factor like a -NAO, although this "winter" was so horrible that was blown away too. Pendulums swing eventually and our good stretch of winters up to 2015-16 was bound to reverse. Now it's the West/upper Midwest turn I guess. The "variable" aspect of snowfall is I assume due to the lack of smaller 2-4" type clipper systems that would hit back in the 80s-into the 90s, now it's these all or nothing patterns that are by nature variable. The endless cutters/SWFE the background Nina state gives us might've been a couple/few inches on the front end to rain 50 years ago vs just rain now, but I remember when there were at least several decent clippers per winter, 2003-04 was the year of those clippers and they're gone now. -
S NJ will do well because it always does these days, people east of the city will be waiting for what convection can survive once it hits the water. Rinse (or not since many of us are bone dry) and repeat. Doesn’t matter what any meso model says which will flip on its head next run anyway.
