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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    Training possibly setting up for Nassau with the heavy rain south of Long Beach. And yes, the inverted trough setup will keep filling in the rain. Very moist Atlantic air is rising as it comes in from the east into the trough.
  2. jm1220
    Radar is estimating 4-5” in much of Brooklyn.
  3. jm1220
    Looks like already 3.25” at JFK.
  4. jm1220
    9z HRRR shows 4-7” more rain for Nassau and W Suffolk, and 6z NAM was very wet too. Still a long way to go here.
  5. jm1220
    About 0.75” so far, moderate rain currently.
  6. jm1220
    Already estimating over 2" of rain in the Rockaways pushing toward JFK.
  7. jm1220
    Yep. Me, PSV, Rmine, WestBabylonWeather etc are in deep doo doo if that happens. And it's still raining after this.
  8. jm1220
    FV3 (I think it's a NAM and GFS blend hi-res model) also has the bullseye over LI. 4-7" from NYC to Manorville by 6z Sat.
  9. jm1220
    Nope, regular NAM (not the 3k) has it over LI. By tomorrow 0z there's 6" IMBY and still pouring. Our time with it will probably be late morning/afternoon. 3K looks different from the regular NAM again. I wouldn't say we're out of the woods on LI for very heavy rain totals.
  10. jm1220
    HRRR still has 3-6" across the island, more west. The initial heavy rain will be west of us but during the day tomorrow it evolves into more of a comma shape and translates east. I'm glad it's walking away from the Aug 2014 and 2011 type insane totals, that would be major to catastrophic.
  11. jm1220
    You can start to see where this initial round of rain is favoring.
  12. jm1220
    And behind that the radar’s lighting up too. We’ll have more than plenty by this time tomorrow.
  13. jm1220
    I wouldn’t focus on the run to run shifting on any model, I’d just focus on the radar. It’ll be a nowcast situation. These setups tend to favor NJ and the city but it really could be anywhere and the models all have the heavy rain axis pivoting around, so one swath will get the most in the AM but eventually everyone gets the hose.
  14. jm1220
    Someone might get that with a setup like this. My hunch is it'll be west of us but we'll get plenty too.
  15. jm1220
    HRRR keeps trending west. Better news for me, bad news for the city. If the current radar means anything, the heavier showers seem pointed towards the city.
  16. jm1220
    If anything it’s trending west. We’ll see what happens as it gets together.
  17. jm1220
    Absolutely. Kudos to @wdrag. I was hoping he was wrong but here we are.
  18. jm1220
    And it’s still raining then.
  19. jm1220
    It moved a little west from 12z but yes still a huge drenching. The inverted trough and upper air dynamics will focus the very moist flow coming in from the east, where that axis sets up will get walloped. And over time it’s expected to pivot around so even though not all of us will get 10”, many will probably get 3-4”.
  20. jm1220
    Maybe they can all wear bathing suits and swim between the bases. The coaches can put down buoys for the bases.
  21. jm1220
    It’ll be a nowcast event to see where the training sets up and the very high end amounts. It should pivot around a little so we all should get a good soaking. But they do happen on LI too, it’s just been since 2014 they’ve been west of here. Aug 2011 and 2014 were the worst drenchers.
  22. jm1220
    Good. Definitely needed.
  23. jm1220
    You can already see the showers almost on the NJ shore so you knew the Euro/eastern models would be shifting west. UKMET is probably furthest east now.
  24. jm1220
    There’s more rain after this panel but Euro would be a manageable event general 2-3” vs major flooding.
  25. jm1220
    Yikes. And I agree, people are definitely thinking tomorrow will just be a normal rainy day.
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