jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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It’ll be very interesting to see the studies/research on it but it’s been crazy to see this Nina-ish background state continue year after year and the cold dump into the Rockies/Plains. I’m sure they’d be fine with a warm winter stretch like we’ve been getting. In the Northwest and upper Plains it’s near record cold at the same time.
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Just where it’s been going the last 4-5 years.
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Our big Thanksgiving Eve storm on the GFS is turning into a sheared out mess with energy burying into the SW. I guess fewer flight delays that way.
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12” of snow in Central NJ from one storm is still a ton. We’ve been spoiled since the early 2000s. I remember the late 90s were horrendous. Between April 1996 and 12/30/00 couldn’t get any event more than a few inches. Don’t want to disturb the hornet nest but we’re due for a down period again. Hopefully this winter can produce but the background Niña state and -PDO is always a concern.
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Dropping quickly here, down to 34 already.
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Seeing piles of snow on top of piles of debris in Long Beach after Sandy was quite surreal. And the house I was staying at had its power knocked out again from that freak snow too. The alternative though was the further west track that was predicted and very strong winds again (remember we were under a hurricane force wind warning, thankfully the offshore track kept that wind offshore).
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Scraped off frost from my car for 2nd morning in a row. Heavy frost on the grass.
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Down to 30 near the LIE/Northern State, 40 near the sound. A bit of influence from the waters still.
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27 here.
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We're too close to the sound this time of year on northerly winds. Unless it dies down we may drop another couple degrees. I'm at 38.
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Anyway, interesting Norlun feature again today, similar setup to our deluge a month ago but thankfully weaker. You can see the echos moving east from the NJ coast and westward from New England/Montauk to where they collide and enhance over W Suffolk. Of course in winter this will never work out.
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Maybe around Smithtown in the heavier echos there are flakes mixed in but where I am which is one of the favored spots on LI and higher elevation, haven’t seen any snow/sleet. If you were at 33 you probably did have flakes.
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Not seeing any snow here but it’s a 38F miserable light rain. If only a few degrees colder, there definitely would be flakes mixed in.
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If a strong upcoming Nino can’t change that, not sure what can.
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If it can happen here on the coast in November 2018 and Oct 2011 it can definitely happen in the mountains this year.
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That was 97-98 in a nutshell. Lots of offshore tracks but flooded in Pacific air.
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I think the Nina wasn’t able to couple and there was a hangover from the 94-95 Nino since the subtropical jet was so juiced (1/96 blizzard). It was also an East based Nina from what I know which is better for our winters. Last years Niña was a central based one which is usually much worse.
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Believe me, if I was here for the Jan 2016 epic storm, I would enjoyed it in that moment. I lived in TX at the time and came back in the Feb 2016 frigid cold wave and saw the last small piles of it. The day of the storm in Austin it was 78 and sunny.
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Feb 2021 was also a great snow cover month here. In mid Feb I had close to 18” on the ground after the Super Bowl storm. Would’ve loved to see the Feb 2011 snow cover where I live now.
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We’ve been due for a stretch of lousy winters since the bonanzas prior to 18-19. The late 90s were horrible, 80s into the 90s etc. No way NYC won’t have to pay for numerous 40”+ winters, and indices like the PDO inevitably flip back to unfavorable with the West getting the bonanzas. Hopefully this winter’s better but if not I don’t see it as our inevitable drop to Richmond/Norfolk type winters every year.
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They’re actually predicting below average snow in the Northeast?
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I’ll be more than happy with just one Nino winter storm bomb like Feb 1983, Jan 2016 or PDII in 2003. 2/5/10 would’ve been one for us too if the confluence was just a hair weaker.
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I guess one positive is that the W PAC isn’t boiling hot anymore so the MJO should be more favorable, but the warm water NW of Hawaii of course is another turd in the punch bowl. The waters off the SE US aren’t too warm so we shouldn’t see a raging SE ridge again, which is also a Nina not Nino trait, but like others said it’s hard to determine if the pattern drives the SSTA’s or the other way around.
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Been a mist storm for the last 2 hours.
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Models got the northern edge heavy band right. I have about 0.5”, as usual Suffolk County shaft area.
