jm1220

82 here.

Still 65 degrees here at 9:40pm. Looks pretty likely we hit 80 tomorrow and maybe 85 Thu-Fri. Still feels summer like now.

You read that sounding on top and it’s almost impossible not to start laughing. You have to go up to 650mb before it’s as cold again as the surface.

Since we have a westerly flow later in the week and not S, it can be an overperformer. We roast when we get these westerly downslope air masses.

Quick recovery today, up to 62 now. Very likely we hit 80 later in the week.

Autumn that had a few random cold days thrown in, now into Spring.

“Cool” is a relative term. We have fewer upper 90s to 100s heat waves recently but we have more slightly less hot days with more humidity. We end up on the south side of these ridges which send the worst actual heat over us to the north and we have very humid southerly flow like FL would receive. We’ll see how this summer behaves.

Wind finally turning S along the sound, temps climbing through the 60s. 78 here-summer like. South barrier islands stuck in the 50s.

75 here, 55 on the Sound shore a few miles away. Persistent NE breeze there.

We should save up our weenie tears in case we probably develop a summer drought.

To get to 90 hopefully there can be a W or WNW downslope day to really max the heat potential without too much humidity capping it. We really heat up in the summer on those kind of days vs the much more frequent S flow these days that pump up the humidity. We also have many more patterns now with the ridge peaking well north of us which encourages the S and even SE flow around the south side of the high.

I would think with this long lived switch we’re heading back to the decadal -PDO we had in the 1960s-80s if not mistaken. Hopefully some years can have enough of a Nino influence to break that.

What we need to look for here are whether highs try to develop to our NE and/or deep troughs. If we see troughs forming over the Maritimes with a strong high in Quebec, it will try to force the back door fronts in. When those aren’t in place it will torch here like you said since the -PNA will definitely keep it warm to our south.

Until that cold area off the West Coast to Alaska warms up, and the warm area around Australia to Indonesia cools down, odds are against us having a cold/snowy winter. Simple as that, unless the El Nino can completely overwhelm those. I'm not sure if this is a decadal PDO/IOD trend we have to deal with now or something more temporary, but those show no signs of changing, and they'll push a Nina like state as long as they stay that way. Hopefully the Nino can become mod to strong and turn Modoki, to at least take the edge off that awfulness. As for today, gorgeous and hopefully next week will feature more of it. Tomorrow will suck but should be short lived at least. Nothing worse than patterns like last spring with days and days of endless ENE onshore garbage.

We were destined/doomed to regress back to our long term average after the bonanza seasons since 2000. It would be more stunning if we didn’t. We’ve had awful stretches here before- most of the 1980s, late 1990s etc. We’re probably entering one of those. If there’s some more “permanent” state where we won’t see snow vs we otherwise would, I’d give it several more winters at least before calling it. This winter was just horrendously bad in all sorts of ways that hopefully won’t repeat anytime soon. The PNA was as hostile as it’s been in several decades as Bluewave pointed out. If we’re entering a long term -PDO state, we will have lousy winters more often than not. The warm waters off the SE certainly pumped the ridge somewhat but I see it as more of a response to the awful PNA. I do see the climate shifting eventually to a point where it’s just too warm to snow here often but it’s probably a few decades away at our latitude. 2021-22 was decent to good for the eastern half of LI and 2020-21 was a very good winter for many of us. There are more ways to get a snowy pattern here than DC, which unfortunately for them the warming Atlantic doesn’t help since they don’t really benefit from more Miller B type lows. Maybe if this Nino happens it can be a test for them since that favors earlier developing Miller As from the Gulf.

Hopefully we can get a Nino next winter that can check the -PNA. That was the culprit more than anything. When we constantly have a trough diving into San Diego, it’s lights out for us. That forces a response from the SE ridge. And we want some SE ridge to keep the pattern from going suppressed in a Nino.

27 here. Maybe my last sub-30 morning?

Wouldn't surprise me if Long Beach ended with 1-2". The 2/28 event was either rain or nonaccumulating snow there when I had 5", and the other minor events I had either didn't happen on the extreme south shore or were minor coatings.

I think it’s safe to call the record for Central Park at this point. So needless to say, this winter was an utter disaster. IMBY total was 8.5”. 19-20 was close but this was worse.

Conditions must be insane along I-195 right now. That S NJ alley keeps producing.

Shocker.

I consider it a win if there’s more than a dying thundershower here from these lines coming from the west. They collapse immediately when hitting the marine layer east of the city. And this time of year that effect is even greater.

OOOOOOK then! Godspeed! Thankfully odds are totally in our favor given how awesome those models have been at day 8-9 with snowstorms they’ve shown this winter.

We were stuck in a dry slot while SNE over to E PA were slammed. What E PA had we were supposed to.