jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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Drove out by Moriches to Riverhead today, saw the large patches of dead pines. This is mostly from the beetle?
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Can always use the rain here so hopefully it produces. So many recent shaftings however it’s tough to be hopeful.
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Models all have the split screw to some extent but getting a little less obnoxious with it other than the RGEM. They also have more of the coastal low rain hitting LI now. We'll just have to see what happens.
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If you took out the ENSO regions and possibly the Indian Ocean you’d still think we’re in perma-Nina. There’s warm water trying to set up on the W Coast but it’s still overwhelmed by the W Pacific warm signal, so we still have the -PDO. It’ll be interesting for winter how that all shakes out.
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NAM would split screw most of us with an initial round for the NW areas then the coastal low well out to sea. Other models have this split screw as well.
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Yup, of course 18z models look to be trending well out to sea with any significant rain. Guess we’ll see what happens.
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Could finally be one where east of the city is favored for the heavy rain.
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The W sides of these are almost always meh wind wise. More rain but the wind switches to the east side where Halifax looks to have 70-80mph type gusts, but very little rain. In my experience Henri had a ton of rain in NYC on the west side but the wind resembled a regular windy day. And looks like the rain hasn’t even been that impressive, some places have 3” in Maine?
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You can see the fewer clipper/small-medium snow event effect I mentioned in the State College data. Pretty clear decline below BOS in the last 15 years. So many big coastal and boom/bust patterns are awful for central PA. SWFEs also blast warm mid level air there so they become ice events. They used to at least get a few of these mid range snow events per year but now with practically no clippers and so many coastal storms, inland south of where SWFEs can still be snow (like Albany) suffers. Maybe if this stronger SE ridge is a semi permanent feature, State College can recover in the future with more inland runners. They really need a return to more Miller A favored patterns too, and this strong Nino might be good for them.
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Radar reminds me of our Juno 2015 and how far the heavy rain will back into Cape Cod.
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It’s because of outflow and southerly flow overall ahead of the hurricane at the upper levels.
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I agree with this pretty much. It probably does make a “fair dice” come up little/no snow more often than 40 years ago due to the background warming, and certain other things like fewer/no minor clippers anymore that would be good for a few inches are head scratchers. The background “perma-Nina” because of the piping hot W Pacific is something else that needs more study. In general Niña isn’t a good state south of New England although down to Philly it isn’t a kiss of death and we can get it to work out like in 17-18 or 10-11. Last season was just a combo of the worst possible factors like the record -PNA. That shouldn’t mean record snow for LA but that’s how insanely negative it was. That will never be good for most of the Northeast/Mid Atlantic.
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Pretty but extra tropical looking storm, eaten away on the south side. Interesting to see the edge of the cirrus canopy from such a huge storm over my head.
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A few drops. On a better note winds are now NW which means this disgusting humidity is on its way out.
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At least the front should cool things down and end the ridiculous humidity.
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I'm a Giants fan. I'll leave it at that.
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For once I lucked out IMBY but it's generally the same garbage July pattern. Endless rain inland, high dewpoint swamp here. And I agree, this time of year it shouldn't be happening.
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Henri on the west side gave me on western LI 5" of rain and parts of NYC 7-8", but the winds were essentially just breezy. Nothing more than a windy rainy day, and the waves were impressive but I've seen a good bit worse from regular nor'easters. This will be much bigger in size but the east side like you said will have the wind/any surge issue.
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There’ll be huge waves this weekend with that track on the E Coast and expanding windfield/fetch. Franklin was more powerful but with a smaller size and curved more NE. That’s what I’m most concerned about where I am. There will probably be direct impacts in terms of rain and TS winds for Cape Cod and Downeast ME but the more serious impacts will be for Canada on the E side but it won’t be a strong hurricane by then. Might not even be a hurricane at all by the time it makes it there. It’s not a situation where a strong hurricane would make landfall there like last year. It’s more like a Henri without baroclinic support to speed it up and deliver energy.
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Up to around 2” here since yesterday.
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We can be far away from the center from here on N and still have significant impacts. That being said away from Cape Cod and Downeast Maine/Canada the most likely impacts will be huge waves that cause serious erosion from the growing wind field causing big time fetch. I doubt Lee strengthens much if at all from here because it still has an eroded/dry air type look and it’s about to enter cooler water caused by Franklin. When it does get up to this latitude it’s probably barely hanging on as a hurricane and transitioning to ET.
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Garden City/Stewart Manor area got crushed. Over 3” there.
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Radar estimating 1.8”. Was coming down like crazy.
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Absolutely pouring here.
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Storms firing now out to Rt 111. Hopefully they can keep firing east from the outflow boundary. Back here we had the one downpour and that was it. Some light rain from the other stuff over Nassau. At least I got something.
